Moving Iron Podcast

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Summary

The conversation covers the current state of the market, focusing on combines, tractors, and other agricultural equipment. It delves into the impact of price increases, depreciation, inventory stacking, and uncertainty in the market. The discussion also addresses the adjustments made to wholesale values and the depreciation of late-model equipment. The conversation delves into the challenges of valuing used equipment in the agricultural industry, the impact of supply and demand on pricing, the influence of interest rates and financing options, and the changes in the market dynamics. It also discusses the updates in the fall guide and the importance of client feedback in refining the guide's accuracy.

Keywords

#agriculturalequipment, #markettrends, #priceincreases, #depreciation, #inventorystacking, #uncertainty, #wholesalevalues, #latemodelequipment, #agriculturalindustry, #usedequipment, #supplyanddemand, #pricing, #interestrates, #financing, #marketdynamics, #fallguide, #clientfeedback

Takeaways

Price increases have significantly impacted the market, affecting depreciation and inventory stacking.

The uncertainty in the market has resulted in farmers holding off on equipment purchases, leading to a surplus of inventory.

Adjustments to wholesale values and depreciation of late-model equipment must align with market trends and normalize sold reports.

Insights from auction data and dealer feedback are crucial in understanding market trends and making informed adjustments to guide values. Valuing used equipment in the agricultural industry is challenging due to the fluctuating time between placing an order and receiving the equipment.

Supply and demand dynamics significantly impact the pricing of used equipment, making it difficult to assess its value accurately.

Interest rates and financing options play a crucial role in the buying and selling of agricultural equipment, influencing market behavior and decision-making.

The fall guide updates include the 2024 values and analysis of average hours on equipment, emphasizing the importance of client feedback in refining the guide's accuracy.

Sound Bites

"When I look at Combines, the depreciation, auction value wise anyway, the depreciation that you're seeing from the price of a new one versus what they're advertised for a one year old or two year old used one and what they're selling for at auction, there's a huge gap there."

"When you look at that humongous price increase in the 23s... to really get those values down to where they're relative to the 22s."

"When we were getting all this pricing information together from Deere and Case, New Holland, everybody else, and I started seeing these price increases and interim price increases, I was like, well, this is gonna be interesting to see what holds up."

"The supply catch up demand price is gonna change, right? You're looking at the machine you have and I come back to you at, this is say, the average price out on the various websites are 300,000 bucks, right? I come back to you with 250,000 and you're looking at me like I'm ripping you off."

"It doesn't matter what it was back then. It matters what it is now. That tractor is worth that now."

"The numbers you guys are putting out are very in line with what's going on in the marketplace."

Chapters

00:00 Adjusting Wholesale Values and Depreciation

21:35 Challenges of Valuing Used Equipment

24:31 Impact of Supply and Demand on Pricing

35:32 Influence of Interest Rates and Financing

38:44 Changes in Market Dynamics

39:14 Updates in the Fall Guide and Client Feedback

Click To Watch:

https://youtu.be/OycgI8eB4do

Click To Listen:

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @randallreilly @Fusable @EDAdata @Valleytransinc

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

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This is the Barchart article link Shawn mentioned in today's podcast.

"The Era of Weather Volatility Will Continue to Escalate Peaking in the mid 2030's"

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/26300746/the-era-of-weather-volatility-will-continue-to-escalate-peaking-in-the-mid-2030s

Summary

The conversation covers a wide range of topics related to commodities, weather, and market trends. Shawn Hackett provides insights into planting progress, weather patterns, and their potential impact on crop yields. He also discusses the cattle marketplace and upcoming live sessions on weather patterns and climate change. The conversation concludes with information on how to reach out for more information.

Keywords

#commodities, #weatherpatterns, #cropyields, #cattlemarket #climatechange, #markettrends

Takeaways

Planting progress and weather patterns play a significant role in determining crop yields.

The cattle marketplace is expected to see strong prices due to tight supplies and potential demand.

Understanding long-term weather cycles and their impact on market volatility is crucial for making informed decisions.

Live sessions on weather patterns and climate change provide valuable insights for market participants.

Shawn Hackett's expertise in analyzing weather data and market trends offers valuable information for those involved in the commodities market.

Sound Bites

"I expect this year to be no different."

"We have a very, very, very active tornado season this year."

"2011 was actually not dry. We had moisture, but we had incredibly hot warm nights."

Chapters

00:00 Insights into Planting Progress and Weather Patterns

11:47 Market Trends and the Cattle Marketplace

13:14 Upcoming Live Sessions on Weather Patterns and Climate Change

Click To Watch:

https://youtu.be/GsQ4-g6idMM

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @randallreilly @Fusable @EDAdata @Valleytransinc

Music By: @TalbottBrothers

Host: @casey9673

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron

Contact Me at:

MovingIronLLC.com

MIP Markets with Chip Nellinger Rally in Wheat; Range Bound Oil Prices

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Summary

In this conversation, Chip Nelger discusses the current state of commodities, including wheat, corn, soybeans, beef, and oil. He provides insights into the weather conditions affecting crop growth, the impact of global factors on commodity prices, and the potential risks and opportunities in the market. Chip also highlights the importance of risk management and staying informed about market trends.

Keywords

#commodities, #wheat, #corn, #soybeans, #beef, #oil, #weatherconditions, #crop #growth, #globalfactors, #markettrends, #riskmanagement

Takeaways

Weather conditions, such as drought and frost, impact crop growth and yield potential in various regions.

Wheat prices have rallied due to dry weather in Russian and Ukrainian growing areas and issues in other wheat-producing countries.

Corn prices have been supported by a lower-than-expected carryout and the potential for a smaller crop due to delayed planting.

Beef prices have remained strong, but there are concerns about a potential overhang in the market due to slowed packer kills.

Oil prices have been range-bound, with uncertainty surrounding OPEC production cuts and US government actions affecting market sentiment.

Sound Bites

"Wheat somewhere around $7 and 10 cents a bushel."

"December corn right now is about $4.85, getting close to that $5 number."

"Crop losses from the best projections are probably starting to be in the market with this move higher."

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Weather Conditions

02:59 Rally in Wheat Prices

03:29 Support for Corn Prices

09:59 Strength in Beef Market

16:26 Range-Bound Oil Prices

Click To Watch:

https://youtu.be/-IPnPSKj9MA

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @randallreilly @Fusable @EDAdata @Valleytransinc

Music By: @TalbottBrothers

Host: @casey9673

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron

Contact Me at:

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MIP #436 The Future of Autonomy in Agriculture with Matthew Fleet and Justin Canada

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Summary

In this episode of the Moving Iron Podcast, Casey Seymour interviews Justin Canada and Matthew Fleet from James River Equipment. They discuss the crop mix in their region, the current state of the used equipment market, and the impact of technology on farming. They also explore the potential of upgrade kits for machinery and the future of autonomy in agriculture. The conversation highlights the importance of technology in improving efficiency and productivity on the farm.

#MovingIronPodcast #letsgomovesomeiron #JamesRiverEquipment #cropmix #usedequipment #technology #upgradekits #autonomy #agriculture #efficiency #productivity

Takeaways

The region's crop mix includes corn, soybeans, winter wheat, cotton, peanuts, tobacco, and hay.

The used equipment market is influenced by the availability of trade-ins and the demand for technology upgrades.

Upgrade kits for machinery offer an opportunity to improve performance and extend the lifespan of equipment.

Autonomy in agriculture is expected to increase efficiency and address labor shortages.

Technology is critical in farmers' buying decisions, and early adopters may have a competitive advantage.

Titles

The Future of Autonomy in Agriculture

The Competitive Advantage of Early Adopters

Sound Bites

"I think the upgrades we have done have been with customers that own and are upgrading their existing equipment."

"I don't know if any of that adds much to our resale value and what we want to own those machines for."

"As it becomes more mainstreamed and accepted, people get comfortable with it, which I think is happening quicker than we anticipated."

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Regional Crop Mix

08:12 Exploring Upgrade Kits and Technology

25:15 The Impact of Technology on Farming Efficiency

29:30 The Competitive Advantage of Early Adopters

Click To Watch:

https://youtu.be/PWuI_l5aEgM

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @randallreilly @Fusable @EDAdata @Valleytransinc

Music By: @TalbottBrothers

Host: @casey9673

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron

Contact Me at:

MovingIronLLC.com

MIP Markets with Shawn Hackett From Russia with Love

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Summary

In this conversation, Casey Seymour interviews Sean Hackett from Hackett Financial about the current state of commodities, focusing on wheat, milk, corn, and soybeans. They discuss the impact of the crop tour on wheat prices, with Sean emphasizing that Russia's control over the wheat market is the main driver. They also highlight the weather-related issues in Russia and Australia that could affect wheat and milk production. Additionally, they touch on the potential for a milk shortage in the US due to avian flu and high cattle prices. Finally, they discuss the outlook for corn and soybeans, noting the bearish impact of the wet May and the need for hot weather to counteract it.

#commodities, #wheat, #milk, #corn, #soybeans, #croptour, #Russia, #Australia, #avianflu, #cattleprices, #weather, #cropproduction

Takeaways

The main driver of wheat prices is Russia's control over the wheat market.

Weather-related issues in Russia and Australia could impact wheat and milk production.

There is a potential for a milk shortage in the US due to avian flu and high cattle prices.

Wet May could have a bearish impact on corn and soybeans, but hot weather is needed to counteract this.

Sound Bites

"The wheat market is not up because of worry over US production. It's up because of Russia and Ukraine weather problems."

"Without Russia, we have no wheat. They've been the linchpin."

"We're going to get a significant liquidation of dairymen who just want out at the top."

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Overview

01:01 Crop Tour and Wheat Prices

05:57 Milk Shortage and Avian Flu

15:29 Bearish Outlook for Corn and Soybeans

23:48 Closing Remarks

Click To Watch:

https://youtu.be/A0klNBNQqT8

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @randallreilly @Fusable @EDAdata @Valleytransinc

Music By: @TalbottBrothers

Host: @casey9673

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron

Contact Me at:

MovingIronLLC.com

MIP #435 Presented By AgDirect Wheat Supplies Are Tight with Tanner Ehmke

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

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Summary

The conversation focuses on the current state of the agricultural economy, with a specific emphasis on the wheat, corn, soybean, and beef markets. The main themes include the impact of crop conditions in Kansas and Russia on wheat prices, the effects of weather conditions in South America on corn and soybean prices, the strength of the US dollar, and the potential implications for the beef market. The conversation also touches on ethanol demand and the outlook for renewable jet fuel.

Keywords

#agricultural #economy, #wheat, #cropconditions, #Kansas, #Russia, #corn, #soybean, #SouthAmerica, #US #dollar, #beef, #ethanol, #renewablejetfuel

Takeaways

Crop conditions in Kansas, particularly for wheat, are poor, affecting commodity pricing.

Weather conditions in South America, including flooding in Brazil and drought in Argentina, impact corn and soybean prices.

Russia has been a major player in the wheat market, but crop concerns and a weakening currency may limit their influence.

The strength of the US dollar is a headwind for grain exports.

Ethanol demand is strong, which is supporting corn prices.

The US economy is still strong, but there are signs of a slowdown, which could impact beef consumption.

The cattle herd is shrinking, but higher slaughter weights offset some price pressure.

The outlook for renewable jet fuel demand is uncertain, with current margins for ethanol producers driving production.

Sound Bites

"Kansas wheat crop rated poor or very poor"

"Hot and dry conditions in Kansas during grain fill"

"Russia has distorted world wheat prices"

Chapters

00:00 Impact of Crop Conditions on Wheat Market

02:50 Russia's Influence on the Wheat Market

08:06 Recent Movements in Corn and Soybean Prices

11:35 Strength of the US Dollar and Grain Exports

13:10 US Economy and Beef Consumption

18:03 Ethanol Demand and Corn Prices

19:19 Outlook for Renewable Jet Fuel Demand

Click To Watch:

https://youtu.be/Ih59yUpE4tk

Click To Listen:

https://on.soundcloud.com/5rPyxr51uc5E5Rkn6

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @randallreilly @Fusable @EDAdata @Valleytransinc

Music By: @TalbottBrothers

Host: @casey9673

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron

Contact Me at:

MovingIronLLC.com

MIP #434 Aimpoint Research Farmer of the Future 2.0 with Mark Purdy

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Summary

Mark Purdy from Aimpoint Research discusses the Farmer of the Future report and the changing landscape of agriculture. The conversation covers farm size distribution, the number of decision-makers on farms, and technology adoption in farming operations. The research shows a growth in smaller farms, driven by consolidation and a desire for a rural lifestyle. It also highlights the increase in multi-generational farming operations and the importance of data-driven decision-making. The report emphasizes the need for ag service providers to understand the different segments of farmers and tailor their approach accordingly.

Keywords

#agriculture, #farmsize, #consolidation, #technologyadoption, #datadriven #decisionmaking, #multigenerationalfarming, #rurallifestyle

Takeaways

The growth in smaller farms is driven by consolidation and a desire for a rural lifestyle.

Multi-generational farming operations are becoming more common, with each generation having a specific role and specialty.

Data-driven decision-making and the adoption of technology are crucial for the future of farming.

Ag service providers should understand the different segments of farmers and tailor their approach to meet their specific needs.

Titles

Multi-Generational Farming: The Role of Each Generation

The Importance of Data-Driven Decision-Making and Technology Adoption

Sound Bites

"Food security is national security."

"The growth in small farms is a result of consolidation."

"The number of decision-makers on farms is increasing, with multiple generations involved."

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Background

06:46 The Farmer of the Future 1.0 and 2.0

11:12 Distribution by Farm Size

28:47 Technology Adoption in Farming

32:00 Advice for Ag Service Providers

34:37 Conclusion and Contact Information

Click To Watch:

https://youtu.be/iXSx-fj3kfw

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @randallreilly @Fusable @EDAdata @Valleytransinc

Music By: @TalbottBrothers

Host: @casey9673

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron

Contact Me at:

MovingIronLLC.com

MIP Markets with Shawn Hackett Correction Expected in June USDA Report

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Summary

In this episode of the Moving Iron Podcast, Mark Schlissel interviews Sean Hackett from Hackett Financial about the current state of commodities. They discuss the weather conditions affecting crop production, including frosts in Russia and rain in the southern US. Hackett explains the concept of a 'bifurcated flood drought' and how extreme weather patterns impact crop yields worldwide. They also touch on the wheat market, the hog market, and the crop estimates for Brazil and Argentina. Hackett criticizes the USDA's yield estimates and predicts a correction in the June report.

Keywords

#commodities, #weather, #cropproduction, #frost, #rain, #wheatmarket , #hogmarket, #cropestimates, #Brazil, #Argentina, #USDA, #yieldestimates

Takeaways

Extreme weather patterns, such as floods and droughts, impact crop yields worldwide.

The wheat market has rallied, but the USDA's yield estimates may not fully reflect crop conditions.

The hog and cattle markets are currently ambivalent, with prices in a wide-ranging trading range.

The USDA's crop estimates for Brazil and Argentina may not align with the estimates from Conab Brazil.

The USDA is slow to adjust its yield estimates and often corrects them months later.

The June report from the USDA may show a reduction in corn stocks, which could be a bullish factor for the market.

Sound Bites

"We have historic flooding in Southern China destroying the rice and sugar crops, yet we have a significant drought to the north threatening soybeans and corn production."

"Even if Ukraine continues to be able to ship the crop out, it's going to be a much smaller crop anyway, and that, on the margin, is another bullish development for overall supply and demand."

"If the wheat board says the crop looks way worse than the USDA, I think we'll get a reaction."

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Crop Conditions

03:48 Impact of Extreme Weather on Crop Yields

06:43 Crop Conditions in Ukraine and Russia

10:03 The Wheat Market and USDA Estimates

16:32 Discrepancies in USDA and Conab Brazil Crop Estimates

21:38 Expectations for the June USDA Report

23:56 Conclusion and Buying Opportunities

Click To Watch:

https://youtu.be/p5rTplxgjhI

Click To Listen:

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @randallreilly @Fusable @EDAdata @Valleytransinc

Music By: @TalbottBrothers

Host: @casey9673

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron

Contact Me at:

MovingIronLLC.com

MIP Markets with Shawn Hackett Mid May Cold Air in Weather Models

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Summary

In this episode of the Moving Iron Podcast, host Casey Seymour interviews Shawn Hackett from Hackett Financial. They discuss the impact of South American weather on the markets, including extreme high pressure systems in Brazil affecting corn, coffee, and cotton crops. They also touch on the potential for cold air coming into the Midwest in May and its impact on the wheat market. The conversation then shifts to the rice market, where flooding in China and a ban on rice exports from India are causing supply concerns. They briefly discuss investment opportunities in farmland and tree crops, including the Gladstone Farmland ETF and the Demetra cryptocurrency.

Keywords

#SouthAmericanWeather #Braziliancorncrops #coldairintheMidwest #wheatmarket, #ricemarket #floodinginChina #riceexports #investmentinfarmland #treecrops, #GladstoneFarmlandETF, #Demetra #cryptocurrency

Takeaways

Extreme weather patterns in Brazil, such as marine heat waves and high pressure systems, are affecting corn, coffee, and cotton crops.

The potential for cold air coming into the Midwest in May could impact the wheat market.

Flooding in China and a ban on rice exports from India are causing supply concerns in the rice market.

Investment opportunities in farmland and tree crops include the Gladstone Farmland ETF and the Demetra cryptocurrency.

Sound Bites

"What's happening in the marketplace"

"Marine heat wave off the West coast of South America"

"Starting to get some upside price risks"

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and South American Weather

03:10 Potential Cold Air in the Midwest

05:20 Supply Concerns in the Rice Market

08:22 Impact of Bird Flu on the Beef Market

10:59 Investment Opportunities in Farmland and Tree Crops

13:00 Gladstone Farmland ETF

15:23 Demetra Cryptocurrency

Click To Watch:

https://youtu.be/hrWpO0S9SsE

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @randallreilly @Fusable @EDAdata @Valleytransinc

Music By: @TalbottBrothers

Host: @casey9673

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron

Contact Me at:

MovingIronLLC.com

MIP Markets with Shawn Hackett Understanding the Resent Movement In the Wheat Market

Moving Iron's Official Data Partner Is Fusable. The Home Iron Solutions And EDA Data. Ignite Your Dealership's Growth With Fusable.com

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Keywords

#commodities, #wheatmarket, #cropproduction #Russia #yields #KCwheat #harvesting #croptour24 #corn #soybeans #markets #USDA #CONAB #plantingseason24 #avianflu #birdflu #dairycows #geopoliticalfactors #ceasefireagreement #Bidenadministration

Dry weather has affected crop production, particularly in Russia and South Russia.

The upcoming critical period for wheat production in May is crucial for market dynamics. The critical May timeframe is when yields are determined.

There is concern about dry weather in the Western KC weight wheat belt.

The USDA and CONAB must agree on second-crop corn production in South America.

Changes in global trade dynamics and consumer behavior can significantly affect commodity markets. Geopolitical factors also play a significant role in the movements of the energy market.

A ceasefire agreement could have a calming effect on the market.

There is uncertainty about the future due to geopolitical tensions.

The Federal Reserve has to balance its decisions with politics as it approaches elections.

The Federal Reserve's decisions will not necessarily be based solely on data, such as the potential impact of rising interest rates on the agriculture industry.

Sound Bites

"Dry weather can last into mid-May, which is very critical."

Chapters

00:00 Recent Movement in the Wheat Market

02:27 Making Cash Sales

04:46 Challenges of Getting the Market Excited During the Planting Season

07:00 The Safety of Pasteurization in Milk

09:12 Global Trade Dynamics and Commodity Markets

11:12 Unrest and its Effect on the Energy Market

13:18 Anxious for Chairman Powell's Statement

15:05 Balancing Data and Politics

15:19 The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Agriculture

15:46 Connecting with Shawn for Information and Insights

Click To Watch:

https://youtu.be/5uxftFgqFy8

Presented By @AxonTire @AgDirect @IronSolutions @randallreilly @Fusable @Valleytransinc

Music By: @TalbottBrothers

Host: @casey9673

#agequipmentbusinesstal #letsgomovesomeiron

Contact Me at:

MovingIronLLC.com