US banks kick off the earnings season with strong beats, while European luxury companies such as Richemont impress with better-than-expected sales. Comments from Fed official Waller on potential rate cuts in 2025 boost investor sentiment, supporting equities and pushing yields lower against a backdrop of robust but slightly softer US economic data. We have Bence Boldvai from our FX & PM Solutions team on the show to talk about the currency market and the particularities of the gold market.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

06:13 FX and metals: Bence Boldvai (FX & PM Advisory)

09:50 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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Stocks rally and government bond yields drop on positive inflation reports from the US and the UK. Another catalyst for the positive mood across markets is the season's first earnings reports from several Wall Street heavyweights, which all beat estimates and provided positive outlooks. Meanwhile, gold has been quietly gaining ground, despite a strengthening US dollar. We're joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his thoughts on why he believes last year's rally in the yellow metal might resume.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)

06:10 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

11:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US small business owners are experiencing their highest level of optimism in over 40 years, fuelled by expectations of tax cuts and deregulation under Donald Trump. US producer prices rose less than expected in December, providing some relief, although today's consumer price data release will be key. The UK reported lower-than-expected inflation in December, weighing on the pound, while Japan's yen strengthened on hints of impending rate hikes. The US earnings season kicks off today, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and what makes them outperform. Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategy Research, discusses the US earnings season and what to look out for.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:33 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

12:25 Earnings Season Preview: Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy)

17:04 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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It was a mixed bag for global equities at the start of the new trading week. European equities stumbled in response to last week's robust US jobs data, while US markets saw a significant shift away from technology stocks and towards energy, healthcare and materials. Market sentiment is being driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will be cautious with regard to cutting interest rates this year, higher global government bond yields and a strengthening US dollar. Meanwhile, Japanese equities faced headwinds overnight amid growing expectations of an imminent rate hike. Joining us to break down the current state of the crypto world is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

06:50 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)

10:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Friday’s US jobs report saw global stocks wipe out their 2025 gains while the US dollar jumped to its highest level in over two years. Meanwhile, swap traders are slashing their bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year amid the global bond rout. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest views on markets from a technical perspective.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:58 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Technical Analysis update)

09:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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Global economic data showed mixed signals, with German exports and industrial production beating expectations, while UK bond yields rose to a 15-year high. In China, the government suspended purchases of government bonds, sending yields soaring, as the currency is suffering from an interest rate disadvantage versus the USD. Meanwhile, gold prices are showing resilience, rising to a four-week high. Next up is the critical US employment report. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, discusses the massive USD surge and GBP weakness so far this year.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

07:08 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)

10:57 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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December’s Fed Minutes released yesterday revealed that FOMC members believe that upside risks to their inflation outlook have increased and that incoming President Trump’s policies likely will not help matters. Neither US nor European data releases helped stocks yesterday. European markets had a mixed Wednesday with indices up or down in the order of half a percent. US stocks also struggled for direction ahead of today’s market closure for President Jimmy Carter’s funeral. China’s overnight inflation data seemed to confirm that Beijing’s stimulus efforts aren’t reviving demand yet. Bond market prices continued to fall with new record highs being set in longer-dated yields from the US to the UK. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to provide an update on digital assets, whilst Nicolas Jordan delivers his regular update from the CIO office.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

07:07 Digital assets update: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)

10:58 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)

14:43 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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While European equity markets rose in yesterday's trading, their US counterparts had a rough day as the latest economic data added to speculation that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged this month amid inflationary pressures. This pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve, with traders no longer fully pricing in a Fed rate cut before July. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, tells us why he would tactically take the opportunity to close any duration gap, but would still avoid excessive duration at this stage.

00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)

05:40 Starting the year with higher bond yields: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)

11:00 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

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A rally in the world’s largest US technology companies lifted stocks globally yesterday amid renewed investor optimism for all things AI, prompting Nvidia to close at an all-time high. Meanwhile, Japan’s finance minister Katsunobu Kato issued a fresh warning today against speculative yen selling after the currency fell to its weakest level since July 2024. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides an update on supply and demand drivers in the natural gas market.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

06:02 Natural gas: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)

10:41 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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US equities began 2025 with a brief sell-off followed by a rebound, while Chinese shares are having their worst start to a year since 2016. Microsoft said that it will spend USD 80 billion on data centres this year. This week, investors will be watching economic data releases, including PMI and employment figures, to gauge the global economic outlook. Upcoming events later this month include earnings reports from majorUS banks, the People's Bank of China's interest rate decision, Donald Trump's inauguration, and US Federal Reserve and ECB interest rate decisions at the end of the month. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that the S&P 500 needs to regain the psychologically important 6000 level after last month's decline.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

06:52 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)

09:54 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

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