Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Trump Proposes Major Tariffs on BRIC Nations and North American Trade
President-elect Donald Trump has proposed 100% tariffs on the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) if they undermine the US dollar. These countries are looking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, which currently dominates global currency exchanges at 58%. With the BRIC nations’ growing economic influence, this move could challenge the dollar’s position in global trade. 

Mexico Responds to Trump’s Tariff Threats
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum clarified her conversation with Donald Trump after his threats to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While Trump claimed Sheinbaum agreed to close Mexico’s southern border to migration, Sheinbaum emphasized that Mexico will continue its policy of keeping the border open and fostering positive bilateral relations. She also expressed confidence that a tariff war between the two countries would not take place.

Brazil’s Soybean Crop Expected to Break Records
Agroconsult, a Brazilian consultancy, has forecasted a record-large soybean crop for the 2023/2024 season, estimating a 172.2 million metric tons (mmt) harvest. This would surpass last year’s record of 162.4 mmt by nearly 11%. USDA estimates a slightly smaller crop of 169 mmt, while Brazil's own Conab predicts 166.1 mmt. Brazil’s soybean exports are also projected to hit a record 103.4 mmt, driven by favorable growing conditions and strong international demand.

US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Soar
US soybean export sales reached a marketing-year high, with 2.5 million metric tons (92 million bushels) sold last week. China remained the largest buyer, reflecting robust demand. Meanwhile, corn sales totaled 1.1 million metric tons (42 million bushels), though they were down 29% from the previous week. Mexico remained the largest buyer for US corn. Wheat sales came in at 366,800 metric tons (13 million bushels), showing a slight decline but still strong on the global stage.

US Ethanol Production Hits Record High
US ethanol production reached a record high last week, with an output of 1.12 million barrels per day. This marked the highest weekly output on record, surpassing the previous peak two weeks ago. Ethanol stocks also increased to 22.87 million barrels, reflecting strong production levels. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand rose 1% compared to the previous week.

Russia Reduces Wheat Export Quota to Combat Inflation
Russia has cut its wheat export quota for the period from mid-February to June, reducing the limit to 11 million metric tons (mmt) — a 62% decrease from last year. This move is designed to control domestic wheat supply amid bad weather and rising inflation, which is currently at 8.5% 📊. Russia will also raise its wheat export duty to 18% starting Wednesday. Despite these measures, Russia is still expected to export 47-52 mmt of wheat this season, retaining its position as the world’s top wheat exporter.

USDA Flash Sales of Soybeans
The USDA reported multiple flash sales of soybeans last week, including 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) to China and 991,700 metric tons (36 million bushels) to unknown destinations.