Welcome back to Tank Talks! In this episode, host Matt Cohen sits down with John Ruffolo to dissect the latest turbulence in venture capital, political uncertainty, and Canada's looming economic challenges. From shrinking VC deals to a controversial budget delay, this conversation cuts through the noise to reveal what's really happening beneath the headlines.

* The steepest drop in Canadian VC deal count since 2020

* Seed rounds oversubscribed by U.S. funds, while Series A bars skyrocket

* Growth equity freezes as Canadian LPs hunker down

* The “denominator effect” myth dies in a two-week market rally

* Cabinet curveballs: Tim Hodgson calms resource markets, but policy vacuum lingers

* Can Ottawa really cut taxes without a budget vote?

* Why investors fear 18 months of fiscal radio silence

Venture Capital in Crisis: Deals Down, Dollars Up (00:00:02)

Canada's VC market showed worrying signs in Q1 2025, with just 116 deals - the lowest since 2020 (seed) and 2021 (pre-seed). While total investment held at $1.26B, this was propped up by large late-stage rounds. U.S. investors retreated, forcing startups to rely on shaky domestic funding. AI deals masked deeper weakness - excluding them, the market looked "very, very low." The data reveals growing risk aversion, particularly at early stages, threatening Canada's innovation pipeline as capital becomes increasingly concentrated in fewer, later-stage companies.

John's Take: If early-stage funding collapses, innovation dies with it. We're already seeing the warning signs - fewer deals mean fewer future companies getting to Series A and beyond. The government doesn't seem to grasp how critical this pipeline is.

Risk Aversion: Canada vs. U.S. (00:02:00)

The U.S. market is surging, stocks rally, IPOs soar (eToro jumps 40% on debut), and capital flows despite turbulence. Canada, meanwhile, pulls back as local investors freeze while Americans dive in. The denominator effect fades as rebounding public markets revive LP confidence, unlocking fresh venture funding. Optimism returns, but risks linger beneath the rally’s glow. Will momentum hold, or will volatility resurface? For now, the bulls are running, and the world is watching.

John's Take: This is classic Canadian risk aversion - we pull back exactly when we should be deploying. In the U.S., they see volatility as an opportunity. Here? We see it as a reason to hide. It's economic self-sabotage.

Carney’s New Cabinet Sends Mixed Signals (00:11:24)

Carney’s cabinet shuffle has drawn scrutiny, particularly with controversial picks like Evan Solomon overseeing AI compute. Meanwhile, the budget delay, now pushed to Fall, leaves Canada without a fiscal roadmap for 18 months since the disastrous April 2024 plan. Though the government promises middle-income tax relief, the lack of legislative details fuels skepticism. Is this genuine reform or mere political theater? With uncertainty looming, critics question whether Carney’s agenda can deliver.

John's Take: Kicking the budget down the road is disrespectful to businesses making investment decisions. You can't claim to be pro-market while operating in a policy vacuum. This isn't governance - it's negligence.

Higher Bars, Shifting Tides in Startup Funding (00:06:50)

Canadian startups now face tougher Series A requirements, with investors demanding Series B-level metrics like $3M+ revenue. Meanwhile, U.S. capital is pouring into seed rounds, oversubscribing deals as American funds seek early-stage bargains. Yet the later-stage market has frozen, with growth equity drying up amid rising risk aversion. The funding landscape is increasingly polarized, hot at the seed level, brutal for scaling companies. For founders, adaptability is now the ultimate test.

John's Take: The U.S. is eating our lunch because they understand something we don't - downturns create winners. While our investors panic, theirs are backing the next generation of companies. We're being outplayed at every turn.

The Bottom Line

John's Final Warning: Canada is at a crossroads. Without urgent policy fixes and a cultural shift toward risk-taking, we'll wake up in five years wondering why all our best companies moved south. The time to act was yesterday.

Connect with John Ruffolo on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/joruffolo

Connect with Matt Cohen on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/matt-cohen1

Visit the Ripple Ventures website: https://www.rippleventures.com/

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