Matt Cohen and John Ruffolo talk about the BDC Capital $1B fund, the state of early-stage VC funding in Canada, and the rise of mega-deals dominated by U.S. investors. They also discuss the feasibility of the Quebec City-Toronto high-speed rail project, AI copyright lawsuits, potential Trump-era tariffs, and the future of open banking in Canada.
Key Topics
BDC Capital’s $1B Growth-Stage Investment Fund (00:42)
* BDC Capital announces a $1B investment fund, with:
* $500M Growth Venture Fund for direct investments and co-investments.
* $450M Growth Equity Partners Program for minority stake investments in mid-market companies.
* Concerns were raised by Mark McQueen about lack of early-stage funding
* John Ruffolo’s take:
* Canada’s early-stage VC ecosystem is underfunded.
* BDC was meant to focus on riskier, early-stage investments, while EDC (Export Development Canada) focused on growth-stage.
* Shift towards later-stage funding may leave early-stage startups without necessary capital.
Canadian Venture Capital Funding Trends (04:55)
* CVCA’s 2024 report:
* $7.86B invested across 592 deals, up 10% from 2023.
* Mega deals ($50M+ rounds) comprised 62% of total VC investments.
* Seed-stage funding fell 50% to $510M.
* Notable mega-deals:
* Clio – $1.24B Series F
* Cohere – $616M Series D
* Blockstream – $289M convertible note
* Waabi – $275M Series B
* U.S. investors dominate:
* 32% of Canadian VC deals had U.S. investor participation.
* Clio’s round was entirely U.S.-funded.
* John Ruffolo’s analysis:
* Canada needs stronger domestic venture capital.
* U.S. capital will always flow into late-stage companies, but early-stage funding is crucial for long-term ecosystem growth.
* Lack of Canadian IPOs in 2024 is a concerning sign.
Quebec City-Toronto High-Speed Rail: $90B Boondoggle? (09:17)
* Massive infrastructure proposal:
* $60B–$90B price tag, with $3.9B allocated to planning alone.
* Construction won’t begin for at least five years, taking 5–7 years per segment.
* Criticisms:
* Timing is political (announced right before an election).
* Where is the funding coming from? Canada’s finances are already stretched.
* Route selection is questionable – e.g., Laval getting a stop over Mississauga/Brampton.
* John Ruffolo’s take:
* Financial viability is unclear – pension funds won’t invest without guarantees of ridership.
* Other priorities (e.g., Arctic infrastructure, national security) are being ignored.
* The government should invest in digital infrastructure instead (e.g., full 5G coverage).
AI Copyright Lawsuits: Cohere vs. Media Giants (14:35)
* Major media coalition (The Atlantic, Forbes, The Guardian, Vox, etc.) sues AI startup Cohere for copyright infringement in New York.
* Allegations: Cohere scraped and displayed copyrighted content without permission.
* Seeking $150K per work infringed + an injunction against Cohere using their content.
* Growing legal pressure on AI companies:
* NY Times vs. OpenAI – potentially setting a massive precedent.
* Anthropic, Meta, and Thomson Reuters have faced similar lawsuits.
* John Ruffolo’s view:
* Copyright concerns were always an issue for AI models.
* AI startups may have to pay into a licensing pool (like the music industry).
* Investor risk increasing – legal uncertainties may impact funding for public LLMs.
Trump’s Potential Tariffs: What Canada Should Do (19:25)
* Trump’s trade policies likely to return if re-elected, impacting Canadian businesses.
* John Ruffolo’s recommendations:
* Canada must fix internal issues first (e.g., interprovincial trade barriers).
* Tariffs won’t disappear for at least four years, so businesses must adapt.
* Canadian businesses will have to shift profits & operations to the U.S. to remain competitive.
The Future of Open Banking in Canada (22:00)
* U.S. fintech sector gains a boost as Trump administration removes CFPB regulations.
* Chime & Klarna expected to benefit from deregulation.
* Canadian Conservatives promise major push for open banking if elected.
* Liberals have been slow to act on open banking despite six years of promises.
John Ruffolo’s perspective:
* Open banking will make Canadian banks stronger, not weaker.
* Canada must prepare for U.S. competition in financial services.
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