




Are techno-optimists correct that artificial intelligence will bring about a fourth industrial revolution and bring back strong productivity growth in America? My guest today, Nicholas Crafts, examines this question from a historical perspective by looking at the nature of the previous industrial revolutions and evaluating whether artificial intelligence may serve as a new general purpose technology in the same manner as steam and electrification.



Nicholas is a professor of economics and economic history at the University of Warwick, where he studies economic growth, the Industrial Revolution, and the history of general purpose technologies. He recently gave a fascinating presentation to the Bank of England, titled “AI as a GPT: An Historical Perspective.”



You can also check out the transcript of this podcast here.



 





Nicholas Crafts: Is the age of fast economic growth really over?

Tune in each week as James Pethokoukis interviews economists, business leaders, academics and others on the most important and interesting issues of the day. You can find all episodes at AEI, Ricochet, and wherever podcasts are downloaded, and look for follow-up transcripts and blog posts at aei.org.

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When it comes to deploying a new technology, there are no guarantees. While developers and policymakers do their best to minimize risk, innovation always requires a leap of faith. The policy debate around artificial intelligence seems to be a guessing game on all sides. Today, I talk with Bronwyn Howell about how we should be thinking about regulating AI, based on what we know from recent history, and acknowledging AI’s great unpredictability. Howell is a nonresident senior fellow here at AEI. She is also a faculty member of the Wellington School of Business and Government at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand and a senior research fellow at the Public Utilities Research Center at the University of Florida. Her research centers on regulation, development, and implementation of new technologies, as well as technology use in the health sector.

Bronwyn Howell: Regulating AI

The Child Tax Credit is a tax benefit available to many American families for the purpose of reducing their federal income tax liability. It’s specifically designed to help offset the cost of raising children. The CTC of today, however, differs starkly from its pre-pandemic structure. Many economists, including Kevin Corinth, think that the post-pandemic changes were a step in the wrong direction. Corinth is a senior fellow and the deputy director of the Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility here at AEI. His research interests include poverty, safety net programs, homelessness, social capital, and economic mobility. Previously, Corinth served as the staff director of the congressional Joint Economic Committee, and he was also chief economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

Kevin Corinth: The Child Tax Credit

Generation after generation seem to pine for “the good old days,” an elusive time when many of us think morals, institutions, and the quality of life, in general, were higher. Americans are no exception to this rule, but there’s something unique about American nostalgia. While we reminisce about the past, we also owe much of our success as a nation to our forward-thinking culture that embraces the possibility of the American Dream. Today on Political Economy, I talk with Karlyn Bowman about the way Americans view their nation, and the tensions between their love of their past and their strong hope for the future. Bowman is a distinguished senior fellow emeritus here at AEI, where she specializes on American public opinion. In 1982, she founded “Election Watch,” the longest-running political analysis program in Washington. She has also been a Forbes columnist since 2008.

Karlyn Bowman: American Nostalgia

Medicare is a trillion-dollar federal health insurance program designed to meet the medical needs of senior citizens and Americans with disabilities. Yet, despite its staggering amount of funding, Medicare is far from a perfect system. Here on Political Economy, I sit down with Joe Antos to discuss the current state of Medicare and its systemic challenges. Antos is a senior fellow here at AEI where he studies the economics of health policy. He is currently Vice Chair and serving a third term as commissioner at the Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission. He is also a professor of emergency medicine at George Washington University.

Joseph Antos: The State of Medicare

Milton Friedman was one of the most influential economists of the 20th century, right alongside John Maynard Keynes. His work pushed economic thought toward free markets in the 1970s and 1980s. His passionate defense of capitalism and economic freedom had global appeal right through the present day. As such, the closing decades of the 20th century have been termed "The Age of Friedman," yet commentators have sought to hold him responsible for both the rising prosperity and rising inequality of recent times. Jennifer Burns is a professor at Stanford University, where she teaches 20th century American history. Her research focuses on how capitalism and the power of the market have influenced the American Political Economy. Burns' new book is Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative. 

Nicholas Crafts: Is the age of fast economic growth really over?

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