July 19, 2025

No Rate Cut, No Buyers, No End in Sight!

20 minutes

In this week’s episode of The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast, we unpack a tidal wave of economic data that’s painting a clear — and sobering — picture for Canada’s housing and financial landscape. The big headline? There will be no rate cut in July. Inflation is ticking up again, job numbers came in scorching hot, and bond yields are surging — all of which are keeping fixed mortgage rates in the uncomfortable mid-4% range.

—

We begin with an announcement for homeowners: our team is hosting a live webinar that breaks down how Bill 44 (the Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing Initiative) is reshaping Vancouver’s real estate game. With over 700 building permits already submitted between Vancouver and Burnaby and projects under construction right now, homeowners can now partner with developers, leverage new zoning allowances, and walk away with up to $1 million more than a traditional home sale. Curious? We’ll show you real numbers, real case studies, and a clear step-by-step process on how to get involved. Register at www.thevancouverlife.com/multiplex

Next, we highlight the launch of our latest project, Sarena, a new 7-unit boutique townhome development in Richmond. Each 3-bed, 3-bath home is priced under $1M, allowing first-time buyers to claim the GST rebate while enjoying private outdoor space, timeless design, and air conditioning. Visit SarenaLiving.com for details.

—

On the macro side, Canada’s June jobs report beat expectations, adding 83,100 jobs instead of the predicted 3,000 loss. While impressive on paper, most were part-time roles. Youth unemployment remains stuck at 14.2%, and wage growth continues to outpace inflation. Speaking of inflation — it’s back up to 1.9%, and core measures remain sticky. That’s why bond markets are pricing in zero chance of a July rate cut.

We then shift to the June housing data for Canada: home sales are up modestly month-over-month and year-over-year, especially in the GTA. Inventory is hovering just below long-term averages, and national home prices are down only 1.3% year-over-year. It’s what we call a "flatline market" — stable, slow-moving, and possibly already past the bottom of this cycle.

Toronto gets its own spotlight. While condo prices are down 22% from peak and back to March 2021 levels, cash flow metrics are improving. Negative carry is down from -$950/month to -$300, and factoring in mortgage pay down, investors are now in slightly positive territory. Still, sales are tepid and inventory is high — a tipping point is coming, but we’re not there yet.

Then comes the gut punch: Toronto’s pre-sale condo market is collapsing. Q2 saw only 502 new condo sales — a shocking 91% below the 10-year average. Over 4,300 units have been cancelled since 2024, and inventory has ballooned to 60 months of unsold stock. Developers are pulling back, new launches are rare, and some are converting to rentals to stay afloat.

This episode is a wake-up call and a roadmap — whether you’re a homeowner, investor, or buyer, understanding what’s happening beneath the headlines is critical to making informed real estate decisions in 2025.

👉 Register for our free webinar at www.thevancouverlife.com/multiplex
👉 Explore Richmond’s newest townhomes at SarenaLiving.com