The global oil market is experiencing a massive demand shock, with demand for transportation fuels sitting in the crosshairs of the coronavirus crisis. At the same time, major oil producers have engaged in a war for oil market share, resulting in a sizable supply shock. The impact of these simultaneous shocks on oil prices, OPEC+, the oil industry, and credit and financial markets more broadly are Top of Mind.
In this episode, Allison Nathan interviews three energy experts, Pulitzer Prize-winning author, Daniel Yergin, PIRA Energy Group Founder, Gary Ross, and our own head of Global Commodities Research, Jeff Currie. They discuss the enormity of the current oil shock, how we got here, and what’s in store—namely, sharply lower, and even negative, crude oil prices as oil infrastructure is overwhelmed by the supply surge. But they also argue that the sharper the price decline, the sharper the eventual rebound as oil production is shut in.

Oil’s Seismic Shock

In each episode of “Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs,” Allison Nathan, a senior strategist in the firm’s Global Investment Research division and the creator and editor of the GS “Top of Mind” publication, explores macroeconomic issues that are on the minds of Goldman Sachs clients.

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With the strength of the IPO market and the surge in IPOs via SPACs continuing into 2021, host Allison Nathan, creator and editor of the firm’s Top of Mind report, asks experts whether or not these trends are sustainable. She speaks with Goldman Sachs’ head of Global Equity Capital Markets, David Ludwig, Professor of Finance at the University of Florida, Jay Ritter, and Professor of Business and Law at Stanford Law School, Michael Klausner.

A note to subscribers of the Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs podcast: going forward, we will be publishing future episodes as Exchanges at Goldman Sachs so please be sure to subscribe to that feed.

The IPO SPAC-Tacle

After the US Dollar surged in late March as investors rushed to its safety amid the global onset of the coronacrisis, its value has since declined sharply. As uncertainty about the virus trajectory and the global economic recovery continues to loom large, the key question from here is whether this retrenchment marks the start of a multi-year Dollar down cycle, and, even more fundamentally, an erosion of the Dollar’s dominance in the global monetary system. 

In this episode, host Allison Nathan interviews three experts to answer these questions: UC Berkeley’s Barry Eichengreen, Cornell’s Eswar Prasad and Goldman Sachs’ own Zach Pandl. They don’t necessarily agree on the direction of the Dollar ahead, with Eichengreen less convinced than Pandl that the Dollar is set for a period of sustained depreciation. But they do agree that despite economic and geopolitical trends that suggest an eventual erosion of the Dollar’s global role, there’s still a long way to go before potential Dollar substitutes—the Euro, RMB and digital currencies—challenge its dominance.

What’s In Store For The Dollar

The US presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most contentious and consequential in modern history, making its potential policy, growth and market implications Top of Mind. 

In this episode, host Allison Nathan discusses the candidates’ economic policy priorities with Kevin Hassett, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump, and Jared Bernstein, economic adviser to former Vice President Biden. For perspectives on US foreign policy, she speaks with Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer, who sees significant alignment between the candidates on many key foreign policy issues—including trade.

Beyond 2020: Post-Election Policies

Well into the COVID-19 pandemic, countries continue to grapple with managing the virus while restoring economic activity. Where the virus will go from here, what that means for the economy and markets—and how the vaccine outlook might impact everything—is Top of Mind.

In this episode, Allison Nathan speaks to Harvard’s Dr. Marc Lipsitch, who believes that the rising expectation for a resolution of the pandemic in 2021 is a plausible best-case scenario, but one we likely won’t be sure of until at least midyear. Our own Jan Hatzius argues that economic activity should be able to normalize further even if the virus remains an issue, and that a vaccine would only reinforce the economic recovery. Finally, Allison asks CEPI CEO, Dr. Richard Hatchett, if the rise in vaccine optimism is warranted. He’s also hopeful about the vaccine timeline, but cautions vaccines likely won’t be a magic bullet.

Covid-19: Where We Go From Here

America appears to be at a point of reckoning with its long history of social and economic racial inequality. How to close the large and persistent Black-white earnings and wealth gaps central to this inequality is not just Top of Mind, but one of the most pressing questions of our time.
In this episode, Allison Nathan interviews Kerwin K. Charles, dean and professor at the Yale School of Management, for perspective on the magnitude of these gaps, their evolution over time, and what these trends suggest for effective policy solutions moving forward. And we dig into racial gaps in healthcare with Dr. John Z. Ayanian, director of the Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation at the University of Michigan; and access to capital and professional advancement with Margaret Anadu, the firm’s head of the Urban Investment Group. All are core areas that must be addressed if we’re serious about reducing economic inequities. Our key takeaway: overcoming these inequities will require a holistic approach from all areas of society, and coming together to achieve this goal is not only a moral imperative, but also essential for the health and vibrancy of our economy and our nation more generally.

Oil’s Seismic Shock

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