Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs

Many view the recent rise in the unemployment rate as a concerning sign about the economic outlook, fueling recession fears. Could the US economy fall into recession, and will overly tight Federal Reserve policy be to blame? In the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Allison Nathan discusses these questions with three top economic minds: Claudia Sahm, the creator of the “Sahm rule” and Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley, and Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Rob Kaplan. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report, “Is the Fed behind the curve?”  

With the strength of the IPO market and the surge in IPOs via SPACs continuing into 2021, host Allison Nathan, creator and editor of the firm’s Top of Mind report, asks experts whether or not these trends are sustainable. She speaks with Goldman Sachs’ head of Global Equity Capital Markets, David Ludwig, Professor of Finance at the University of Florida, Jay Ritter, and Professor of Business and Law at Stanford Law School, Michael Klausner.

A note to subscribers of the Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs podcast: going forward, we will be publishing future episodes as Exchanges at Goldman Sachs so please be sure to subscribe to that feed. 

After the US Dollar surged in late March as investors rushed to its safety amid the global onset of the coronacrisis, its value has since declined sharply. As uncertainty about the virus trajectory and the global economic recovery continues to loom large, the key question from here is whether this retrenchment marks the start of a multi-year Dollar down cycle, and, even more fundamentally, an erosion of the Dollar’s dominance in the global monetary system. 

In this episode, host Allison Nathan interviews three experts to answer these questions: UC Berkeley’s Barry Eichengreen, Cornell’s Eswar Prasad and Goldman Sachs’ own Zach Pandl. They don’t necessarily agree on the direction of the Dollar ahead, with Eichengreen less convinced than Pandl that the Dollar is set for a period of sustained depreciation. But they do agree that despite economic and geopolitical trends that suggest an eventual erosion of the Dollar’s global role, there’s still a long way to go before potential Dollar substitutes—the Euro, RMB and digital currencies—challenge its dominance. 

The US presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most contentious and consequential in modern history, making its potential policy, growth and market implications Top of Mind.

In this episode, host Allison Nathan discusses the candidates’ economic policy priorities with Kevin Hassett, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump, and Jared Bernstein, economic adviser to former Vice President Biden. For perspectives on US foreign policy, she speaks with Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer, who sees significant alignment between the candidates on many key foreign policy issues—including trade. 

Well into the COVID-19 pandemic, countries continue to grapple with managing the virus while restoring economic activity. Where the virus will go from here, what that means for the economy and markets—and how the vaccine outlook might impact everything—is Top of Mind.

In this episode, Allison Nathan speaks to Harvard’s Dr. Marc Lipsitch, who believes that the rising expectation for a resolution of the pandemic in 2021 is a plausible best-case scenario, but one we likely won’t be sure of until at least midyear. Our own Jan Hatzius argues that economic activity should be able to normalize further even if the virus remains an issue, and that a vaccine would only reinforce the economic recovery. Finally, Allison asks CEPI CEO, Dr. Richard Hatchett, if the rise in vaccine optimism is warranted. He’s also hopeful about the vaccine timeline, but cautions vaccines likely won’t be a magic bullet.

America appears to be at a point of reckoning with its long history of social and economic racial inequality. How to close the large and persistent Black-white earnings and wealth gaps central to this inequality is not just Top of Mind, but one of the most pressing questions of our time.

In this episode, Allison Nathan interviews Kerwin K. Charles, dean and professor at the Yale School of Management, for perspective on the magnitude of these gaps, their evolution over time, and what these trends suggest for effective policy solutions moving forward. And we dig into racial gaps in healthcare with Dr. John Z. Ayanian, director of the Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation at the University of Michigan; and access to capital and professional advancement with Margaret Anadu, the firm’s head of the Urban Investment Group. All are core areas that must be addressed if we’re serious about reducing economic inequities. Our key takeaway: overcoming these inequities will require a holistic approach from all areas of society, and coming together to achieve this goal is not only a moral imperative, but also essential for the health and vibrancy of our economy and our nation more generally.

Government deficits, debt issuance and debt levels are set to surge as countries race to ease the economic impact of the coronacrisis. This raises many questions: who will finance this debt, will it force a market repricing and/or an eventual growth or inflation problem, and would greater use of negative rates help avoid any of these risks? At the same time, whether corporate bankruptcies could derail the economic recovery is a key concern. In short, how disruptive the recent, dramatic shift in debt dynamics might be is Top of Mind.

In this episode, Allison Nathan consults Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff, University of Pennsylvania’s David Skeel, and Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius. Our key takeaways: the benefit of running large deficits today far outweighs any eventual costs; worries about distress in emerging markets and the Euro area are largely warranted; and a likely wave of corporate bankruptcies could prolong—but likely won’t derail—the economic recovery.

With mitigation measures leading to an apparent leveling off of case growth globally at the same time that the economic costs of such measures continue to mount, several countries around the world have begun to plan for—or have already started to implement—economic reopening. But absent herd immunity or a vaccine, such reopenings increase the risk of a resurgence. With this in mind, what a safe reopening might look like, how well-positioned the US is to achieve one and how quickly reopening would really translate into economic recovery is Top of Mind.

In this episode, we consult three experts on these questions: University of Pennsylvania’s Dr. Zeke Emanuel, Duke University’s Dr. Mark McClellan and Harvard University’s Dr. Barry Bloom. Finally, with more complete economic normalization only likely with an effective testing regime, treatments, or a widely available vaccine, we discuss where we are on all of the above.

The global oil market is experiencing a massive demand shock, with demand for transportation fuels sitting in the crosshairs of the coronavirus crisis. At the same time, major oil producers have engaged in a war for oil market share, resulting in a sizable supply shock. The impact of these simultaneous shocks on oil prices, OPEC+, the oil industry, and credit and financial markets more broadly are Top of Mind.

In this episode, Allison Nathan interviews three energy experts, Pulitzer Prize-winning author, Daniel Yergin, PIRA Energy Group Founder, Gary Ross, and our own head of Global Commodities Research, Jeff Currie. They discuss the enormity of the current oil shock, how we got here, and what’s in store—namely, sharply lower, and even negative, crude oil prices as oil infrastructure is overwhelmed by the supply surge. But they also argue that the sharper the price decline, the sharper the eventual rebound as oil production is shut in. 

Coronavirus has pushed the global economy into a recession of historic proportions and halted the longest-lasting equity bull market on record. As infections spread globally, economic activity collapses, markets recoil and policymakers respond, the depth and duration of the economic and market downturn is Top of Mind.

In this episode, Allison Nathan speaks with the former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Jason Furman, and Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist, Jan Hatzius. Both agree that the near-term economic damage will be severe, but whether it proves longer-lasting will depend largely on the virus’ trajectory and somewhat on policymakers, who have done a lot, but may need to do more to sustain households, businesses and market functioning in this difficult period. To that end, we assess the risk that the global health crisis becomes a financial crisis. And we discuss how this might play out in markets, and what investors should do from here. For that, we draw on the wisdom of Oaktree Co-Chairman, Howard Marks. His advice? Buy things with solid fundamentals when they go on sale.