With just two months to go until Donald Trump’s anticipated return to the White House, tensions are rising on multiple fronts amid the war in Ukraine. The Biden administration, in its final stretch, has eased restrictions on Ukrainian use of Atacms long-range missiles, approved the provision of landmines to Ukraine, and announced $4.7 billion in debt forgiveness for Kyiv. Meanwhile, Russia is ramping up nuclear threats. Although Washington has downplayed Ukrainian claims of Moscow's first-ever use of intercontinental ballistic missiles, the US was alarmed enough to briefly shut its embassy in Kyiv this week. 

The unease extends beyond Ukraine. Suspicions of sabotage to critical data cables in the Baltic Sea coincide with Finland and Sweden distributing war preparedness guides to their citizens. Is this all spiralling out of control, or is it a calculated lead-up to hard bargaining? And if the US steps back, is this the last opportunity to shape realities on the ground before borders are redrawn for good? 

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Guillaume Gougeon and Mélissa Kalaydjian.