Boomer Turnout, Betting Markets, and a Liberal Path to Victory

On the Ledge –  April 24, 2025

Host: Dave Trafford
Guests: Kathleen Wynne, John Wright, Keith Leslie, Amanda Galbraith (filling in for Tim Hudak) 

In this edition of On the Ledge, Dave Trafford and the panel dig into the final days of the federal campaign. With polling margins narrowing, the conversation pivots to the strategic implications of the NDP collapse, the Conservatives’ stalled momentum, and whether Mark Carney’s Liberals can secure a fourth term.

Amanda Galbraith delivers sharp insight on why the NDP’s decline may have done more to harm Pierre Poilievre’s chances than help.

The panel also critiques political ad strategies, speculates on shifting voter coalitions, and debates whether the electorate is still moved by messages of hope or just fed up.

In provincial politics, the crew discusses subway procurement, sole-sourcing, and the Ford government's growing tensions with school boards.

Key Takeaways:

• Polling Plateau: Despite breathless media reports, the polls remain largely unchanged; regional shifts are minimal and final telephone-based polls may provide clearer trends (John Wright).
• NDP's Collapse: Amanda Galbraith argues the NDP's self-inflicted decline undermines the Conservatives' vote-splitting advantage and may cost Poilievre a path to power.
• Ad Wars and Missed Messages: The panel criticizes a Conservative ad targeting older male voters, suggesting it misses the emotional connection needed in a campaign’s final stretch.
• Boomer vs. Youth Turnout: Young conservative-leaning men may stay home, while reliable boomer voters help buoy Liberal support.
• Online Betting Markets: Unofficial political betting lines show rising odds for a Liberal majority — a surprising twist not yet echoed in public polling.
• Transit and Tariffs: Ford’s proposal to sole-source subway cars in Thunder Bay sparks debate over cost control and trade protectionism.
• School Board Frustration: The panel anticipates a public appetite for stronger oversight and accountability in Ontario’s school boards amid financial controversies.

On the Ledge – April 17, 2025
Host: Dave Trafford
Guests: Kathleen Wynne, Tim Hudak, Keith Leslie, John Wright

As Canadians look ahead to a long Easter weekend, the On the Ledge panel tackles the aftermath of the French-language leaders’ debate and the political blowback from the Ontario Place Therme spa deal.

They analyze the debate performances of Carney, Poilievre, Singh, and Blanchet, with particular focus on tone, leadership posture, and policy signals—especially around energy, Indigenous consultation, and economic direction.

The conversation also pivots to the explosive New York Times investigation exposing questionable claims by Therme Group, and what that means for Doug Ford’s government, Infrastructure Ontario, and the integrity of public procurement. The episode closes on what interprovincial cooperation could mean post-election—and why Indigenous governments must be included in Canada's economic vision.

Key Takeaways:

• Debate Highlights: Mark Carney held his own despite weaker French; Poilievre surprised by staying calm and policy-focused; Blanchet was passionate but seen as marginal to national issues.
• Tone Matters: Multiple panelists noted voters often respond more to a leader’s demeanor than to their words—Carney’s composure and Poilievre’s restraint were seen as net positives.
• Therme Scandal Fallout: The New York Times revealed Therme misrepresented itself, shaking trust in the Ontario Place redevelopment deal. The panel criticized both the lack of due diligence and media/political inaction before the exposé.
• Infrastructure Ontario Critique: IO’s role in multiple procurement debacles—including Metrolinx and Ontario Place—came under fire, with calls for greater transparency and accountability.
• Permitting and Speed vs. Process: Ford’s push to streamline permits is seen as a risk to environmental and Indigenous processes if not balanced carefully.
• Post-Election Unity Challenge: The panel underscores the need for intergovernmental cooperation on economic priorities—labor mobility, trade, and Indigenous partnerships top the list.

It must be Thursday! We're dealing with another round of tariff chaos courtesy of the Useful Idiot.

On the Ledge : April 10, 2025
Host: Dave Trafford
Guests: Kathleen Wynne, Keith Leslie, John Wright, Tim Hudak

In this wide-ranging episode of On the Ledge, Dave Trafford and the panel dig into the volatile tariff landscape shaped by U.S. trade moves, its ripple effects on Canada, and how political leaders are responding.

Broadcasting from Iqaluit, Trafford also introduces a new Arctic-focused podcast, The Arctic Edge.

Meanwhile, the group dissects Pierre Poilievre’s recent tone shift, internal campaign strategies, and what polling trends really say about the state of play heading into the federal election. From trade chaos to campaign calculus, it’s a comprehensive snapshot of Canada’s political pulse.

In this episode of On the Ledge - your Ontario Politics Podcast:

Dave Trafford leads a dynamic roundtable with political veterans Tim Hudak, Keith Leslie, and John Wright, unpacking the seismic shifts in North American trade following Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement. From the economic aftershocks of “Liberation Day” to the potential realignment of Canadian politics, the panel delivers sharp, insightful analysis. The discussion touches on the targeted impacts of tariffs on Ontario and Quebec, federal political fallout, and the public’s mounting anxiety over affordability. The crew also examines campaign strategy pivots, polling signals, and the role of tone and leadership in a turbulent election cycle.

📌 Key Takeaways:

• Economic Fallout: Trump’s tariffs have already begun to shutter Canadian manufacturing (e.g., Stellantis plants), with the stock market in decline and global supply chains in disarray.
• Canadian Response: PM Carney and premiers are weighing cautious retaliation. Ford is praised for a strategic, measured approach.
• Targeted Impact: Tariffs disproportionately hit Ontario and Quebec, sparking regional tensions over national strategy.
• Political Shift: Carney’s poll numbers are up, but Conservatives under Poilievre show grassroots strength. Affordability, not Trump, is the campaign’s core issue.
• Campaign Strategy: Conservative tone has shifted. The panel suggests the “adult in the room” narrative and emotional tone could determine voter swing.
• Electoral Math: Conservative success hinges on NDP vote splits—now at risk with NDP polling near single digits.

A Special Edition of On the Ledge - your Ontario Politics Podcast.

Host: Dave Trafford

Guests:

• Lauren Bates – Chair, Ontario Caregiver Coalition
• Daniel Nowoselski – Advocacy Manager, Hospice Palliative Care (Canadian Cancer Society); Board Member, Ontario Caregiver Coalition
• Malene Stewart – Social Worker, Educator & Co-Chair, Caregiver Collective

In this episode, Dave Trafford sits down with three passionate advocates who bring both professional expertise and deeply personal experience to the table. As Ontario marks Family Caregiver Day, the conversation sheds light on the real, often invisible, role of family caregivers in holding together our fragile healthcare and social systems. From personal sacrifice and financial strain to policy gaps and urgent reform, this roundtable discussion underscores a pressing need: support the caregivers who support everyone else.

🔑 Key Takeaways

• 💡 Scope of Caregiving: Nearly 4 million Ontarians are caregivers today—a number expected to hit 6.5 million within five years.
• 75 % of all the care that's provided is provided by family and friends
• 🧠 Mental Load & Grief: Caregiving often comes with anticipatory grief, isolation, and emotional strain, especially with illnesses like dementia.
• 💸 Financial Strain: Many caregivers reduce work hours or leave jobs entirely, yet 92% don’t qualify for federal caregiver tax credits.
• 🧍‍♀️ Policy Gaps: Ontario lacks a coordinated respite system, leaving caregivers without essential breaks.
• 🏠 Aging in Place: Housing limitations and care infrastructure are ill-equipped to support aging populations at home.
• 📣 Call for Action: The Ontario Caregiver Coalition is pushing for scalable, inclusive caregiver benefits and mental health supports.
• 🧭 How to Help: Visit ontariocaregivercoalition.ca or follow OCC on social platforms to support and get involved.

The Useful Idiot is at it again.

Whether he was simply trying to distract from the Signal App scandal in Washington or is Trump deliberately asserting himself into the federal election campaign in Canada, the 25% tariffs on the auto sector caught Doug Ford off guard. And it appears to be the final nail in the Can-Am relationship.

In this edition of On the Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast former Premier Kathleen Wynne, former PC leader Tim Hudak, and pollster John Wright join Dave Trafford to dive into the latest threats from Washington and Trump's toxic tariffs.

This is an OTL BONUS! Welcome to POLITICALLY SPEAKING.

Three days into the federal election campaign in Canada and the latest polling aggregators have seat modelling suggesting Mark Carney's Liberals are in a position to win a strong majority.

But hey! It's early yet.

One thing we do know is it's shaping up to be a very close race between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

Veteran pollster John Wright joins Dave Trafford to take the pulse on the popular opinion.

We'll be adding episodes of POLITICALLY SPEAKING for you here in the On the Ledge feed throughout the federal campaign!

Hope you enjoy it.

John Wrigth and Dave Trafford break down the details of the election call.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has set April 28, 2025 as Election Day in Canada.

AND...Donald Trump and his trade tariffs are THE BALLOT QUESTION.

Who can handle Trump? Who can manage the cultural and economic angst of Canadians?

We're back with On the Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast!

Former Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne, former Ontario PC leader Tim Hudak, Queen's Park Commentator and broadcaster Keith Leslie, and our founding pollster John Wright are around the table with Story Studio Network's Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford.

Doug Ford and his "new" cabinet have been sworn in with a couple of new seating assignments but, for the most part, the same faces around the table. It's still the largest cabinet in Ontario's history.

What's next for Ford as Captain Canada?

Should he be visiting Alberta Premiere Danielle Smith to calm and quell her anti-Ottawa ranting?

He's unlikely to offer any help to Pierre Poilievre in the upcoming federal campaign.

Hello On the Ledge listener!

Welcome to POLITICALLY SPEAKING on Now and Next. Former Bank of Canada Governor and self proclaimed political outsider, Mark Carney won't nearly 86% of the vote in his bid to be leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.

He set a new tone for the party while setting his sights on CPC Leader Pierre Polievre in anticipation of a soon-to-be-called federal election and he set the stage for the coming trade war with Donald Trump's America.

Joining us around the table is former Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne, former Mayor of Toronto, John Tory, founding co-host and pollster from On the Ledge - your Ontario politics podcast, John Wright and Keith Leslie, Queen's Park commentator at CHCH TV in Hamilton.

If you enjoyed this, be sure to follow/subscribe to NOW and NEXT where ever you listen to On the Ledge - your Ontario Politics Podcast!