Open Circuit

Here’s something surprising: in states like North Dakota and Texas, the surge of new industrial and data center load has actually moderated electricity prices.

The very thing many people blame for higher power bills has, in some cases, had the opposite effect. According to a new report from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, load growth has slightly lowered retail electricity prices on average over the past five years.

So what’s really driving them up? The answer isn’t renewables or AI. The study finds that generation costs are down 35% since 2005, but transmission costs have tripled and distribution costs have more than doubled. Billions are now being spent to upgrade the grid and harden it against extreme weather.

This week, we’re joined by guest co-host Caroline Golin to unpack the new data. We’ll discuss what’s driving those infrastructure costs, why utility spending remains so opaque, and what could happen over the next five years as large loads multiply.

Later in the show, we’ll talk about a new proposal from Energy Secretary Chris Wright to accelerate the interconnection of large loads with onsite generation or flexibility capabilities. The proposal could speed up data center projects, but also risks triggering a new clash between federal and state regulators over reliability, costs, and control.

Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural Power. Natural Power specializes in renewable energy consulting and engineering, supporting wind, solar, and battery storage projects from concept through financing. Discover how we're creating a world powered by renewable energy at naturalpower.com.
With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026. Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms. Register today here!

After years of U.S. restrictions on advanced semiconductors, Beijing is fighting back by cutting off exports of the raw materials that make those chips possible: rare earths, graphite, gallium, germanium — the invisible ingredients inside motors, power electronics, defense systems, and data centers.

The move caught Washington off guard. The Treasury Secretary compared it to “pointing a bazooka at the industrial base of the entire free world.” These minerals only make up hundreds of millions of dollars worth of imports, but their strategic value is enormous. They’re woven into every emerging industry the U.S. hopes to dominate.

And that’s the point. Under China’s new export rules, foreign companies will need government approval to trade or process these materials, giving Beijing leverage over the supply chains that feed both clean energy and artificial intelligence.

In this episode, we look at the impact of China’s restrictions. And we also ask: is the AI war really an energy war?

If you zoom out, this isn’t just a chip war or a minerals dispute — it’s a systems war. America has been pouring billions into digital intelligence, while China has been focusing on the “electric stack” that brings enormous strategic economic value.

The electric stack is the vertically-integrated network of mining, refining, manufacturing, and grid infrastructure that underpins both the emerging electricity-based economy. China has spent decades mastering it.

In the second half of the episode, we unpack an essay from Packy McCormick and Sam D’Amico that argues America is playing the wrong game. Are we overestimating the value of artificial intelligence and underestimating the electric infrastructure that intelligence runs on?

Resources discussed in this episode: 

The Electric Slide by Packy McCormick & Sam D’Amico

Mastering the Electro Tech stack by Noah Smith

The Electrotech Revolution report from Ember

The Electro-Industrial Stack from Andreessen Horowitz

NYT: China’s Rare Earth Restrictions Aim to Beat the U.S. at Its Own Game

Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural Power. Natural Power specializes in renewable energy consulting and engineering, supporting wind, solar, and battery storage projects from concept through financing. Discover how we're creating a world powered by renewable energy at naturalpower.com.

With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026. Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms. Register today here!

The AI economy isn’t coming. It’s already here.

In the first half of 2025, investment in AI infrastructure outpaced all U.S. consumer spending. Tech companies are now building the equivalent of an Apollo program every ten months, while data centers are drawing capital away from nearly every other sector.

As money floods into chips, servers, and substations, the “B word” is suddenly on everyone’s lips: bubble.

This week, Azeem Azhar, founder of Exponential View and one of the sharpest analysts of exponential technologies, joins Open Circuit to unpack the difference between a boom and a bubble. Azeem discusses his recent analysis on bubble dynamics, which established a dashboard for monitoring the health of the AI economy.

Azeem has spent the last decade chronicling how exponential technologies collide with the real world. And lately, that collision has been literal. Data centers are running into grid limits, power supply is the new bottleneck, and trillions in capital expenditures are reshaping capital flows across the economy.

Scott Clavenna, Latitude Media CEO and lead author of the AI-Energy Nexus newsletter, also joins as guest co-host to draw from his experience covering the telecom bubble of the 90s.

So where is this cycle headed? What’s on the other side of it? And what happens when exponential technologies hit the limits of steel, concrete, and electrons?

In this episode, we’ll check the gauges of the AI economy, and ask what it means for the energy economy. Plus, we examine the state of AI, if we’ll ever see energy’s AlphaFold moment, and whether we’re seeing the limits of computing scale.

Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural Power. Natural Power specializes in renewable energy consulting and engineering, supporting wind, solar, and battery storage projects from concept through financing. Discover how we're creating a world powered by renewable energy at naturalpower.com.

With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026. Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms. Register today here!

Distributed energy resources have never looked stronger. Fleets of batteries are now performing like gas plants, virtual power plants are dispatched daily, and hyperscalers are supporting new models to finance capacity around their data centers.

But investor-owned utilities? The Edison Electric Institute says they’re planning more than a trillion dollars in new infrastructure over the next decade to support historic load growth — with no mention of DERs or flexibility as solutions.

So which world are we living in? The one where DERs become essential infrastructure, or the one where they remain a rounding error for utilities?

This week, we examine this critical moment for distributed resources. Tim Hade, a co-founder of Brightfield Infrastructure and former COO of Scale Microgrids, joins us to talk about the tug-of-war at the heart of the grid transition. 

We unpack a recent historical overview of DERs from Andy Lubershane, who argues that technical innovation and the desperate rush to meet load growth is turning them from nice-to-have experiments into distributed capacity resources that grid operators can actually count on.

We also dig into EEI’s new report on utility planning, and examine why utilities still resist DERs even as customers and data centers push them forward. What are the consequences of ignoring them at this precarious moment when power prices are rising quickly?

Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural Power. Natural Power specializes in renewable energy consulting and engineering, supporting wind, solar, and battery storage projects from concept through financing. Discover how we're creating a world powered by renewable energy at naturalpower.com.

With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026. Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms. Register today here!

For the last decade and a half, the loudest voices in the climate movement have treated decarbonization like a moral crusade: ban gas stoves, declare climate emergencies, punish fossil fuel companies.

But those tactics don’t lower utility bills or build durable political coalitions. And now, amidst a radical shift in U.S. politics where the economy dominates, there’s a growing call for a pragmatic reset.

This week, we dissect two critiques of climate politics. In a Bloomberg essay, Michael Liebreich argues it’s time to ditch the guilt and doom, stop chasing impossible targets, and focus on fast, affordable progress. Alex Trembath of the Breakthrough Institute says the “climate hawk” is an endangered species in U.S. politics. 

We’ll walk through their arguments, and debate what a reset in climate politics and policy might look like.

Plus, another reset in finance. Generate Capital and Greenbacker, two of the most important clean energy investors, are both under new leadership. Both companies are re-evaluating their approaches to the market. What do these shakeups say about the state of climate capital and the “missing middle” of projects that still struggle to get financing?

With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026 . Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms.

Want your clean energy brand to stand out in a crowded market? Work with Latitude Studios, our in-house agency that provides content creation and marketing services for brands at the frontier of the energy transition.

Credits: Co-hosted by Stephen Lacey, Jigar Shah, and Katherine Hamilton. Produced and edited by Stephen Lacey. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand.

Eggs were the symbol of inflation in the last election. Now, as electricity bills spike, they are becoming a symbol for consumer frustration in 2026.

Americans are feeling the squeeze. Bills are up nearly 30% since 2021, outpacing inflation and straining household budgets. Eighty million Americans are struggling to pay, four in five feel powerless, and politicians are scrambling for someone to blame. On Truth Social, Trump points at renewables. On TikTok and Bluesky, users rage about data centers. Utilities blame extreme weather. Governors blame corporate utilities.

So who’s actually guilty? According to Charles Hua, the CEO of PowerLines, the real story is far more complicated: billions in spending for transmission and distribution systems without enough careful planning or oversight.

In this episode, we explore how rising bills are creating a political storm, how affordability is reshaping state campaigns, and what it would take to cut rates by 20% through smarter regulation and an emphasis on unlocking current grid capacity.

With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026 . Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms.

Want your clean energy brand to stand out in a crowded market? Work with Latitude Studios, our in-house agency that provides content creation and marketing services for brands at the frontier of the energy transition.

Credits: Co-hosted by Stephen Lacey, Jigar Shah, and Katherine Hamilton. Produced and edited by Stephen Lacey. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand.

On his first day in office, Trump laid out his wind policy in one simple sentence: “We aren’t going to do the wind thing.” 

With stop-work orders, red tape, and wild claims about whale-killing electromagnetic fields, the White House has stepped up its war on wind.

The flashpoint is Ørsted’s $5 billion Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island, which was weeks from delivering 700 megawatts of clean power to New England, and now frozen by federal order. The threat against the project is more than a local fight: it signals that even fully permitted, nearly finished clean energy assets can be derailed for political leverage. 

Analysts warn that this is sending shock waves through the entire energy sector, raising the cost of capital for everything from solar farms to advanced nuclear.

In this week’s Open Circuit, we unpack the wider impacts. What does it mean when federal approvals don’t hold? And can states, governors, and utilities step in to keep projects alive when Washington is trying to kill them?

Plus, we look at the split story for clean energy jobs. We’ve seen a fresh round of layoffs, bankruptcies and canceled projects, even as the government projects tens of thousands of new renewable and battery jobs by 2030. What is the long-term picture for employment?

We’ll end with a look at Amory Lovins’ new piece on nuclear, where he argues the AI boom won’t rescue reactors from their economic flaws. Is the current demand picture enough to revitalize the U.S. nuclear industry?

With resilience now a leading driver of grid investments, Latitude Media and The Ad Hoc Group are hosting the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas on January 21-23, 2026 . Utilities, regulators, innovators, and investors will all be in the room — talking about how to keep the grid running in this new era of heatwaves, wildfires, and storms.

Want your clean energy brand to stand out in a crowded market? Work with Latitude Studios, our in-house agency that provides content creation and marketing services for brands at the frontier of the energy transition.

Credits: Co-hosted by Stephen Lacey, Jigar Shah, and Katherine Hamilton. Produced and edited by Stephen Lacey. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand.

In 2004, Dr. Sarah Kapnick was a young banking analyst at Goldman Sachs when she spotted a blind spot: no one was helping clients understand climate risk. Two decades later, she’s the Global Head of Climate Advisory at JPMorgan, turning climate science into boardroom strategy.

Kapnick’s career path — from Wall Street, to NOAA’s chief scientist, and back to finance — mirrors the way markets are evolving: from ignoring climate risk, to struggling with it, to finally beginning to price it.

Without adaptation, large companies could face $1.2 trillion in annual climate-related costs by the 2050s; utilities alone could see $244 billion in yearly losses. But adaptation isn’t just about avoiding losses — it’s also a chance to seize opportunities. 

Kapnick calls it climate intuition: the ability to think about climate risk the way we think about interest rates or labor costs.

In this episode, we dig into what that intuition looks like in practice. From infrastructure investors getting serious about resilience to consumer brands redesigning products, is climate finally becoming a normal part of doing business?

Plus, we also look at the deep data gap. Without strong regulation, will companies ever disclose or understand enough of their risks? And with government climate monitoring under threat, how will the private sector step in?

Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural Power. Natural Power specializes in renewable energy consulting and engineering, supporting wind, solar, and battery storage projects from concept through financing. Discover how we're creating a world powered by renewable energy at naturalpower.com.

Open Circuit is brought to you by Sungrow, the trusted provider of PV inverters and battery storage. With over 605 GW installed worldwide and a BloombergNEF ranking of “most bankable” in power conversion and energy storage, Sungrow provides solar tech you can count on. Learn more at sungrowpower.com. 

Credits: Co-hosted by Stephen Lacey, Jigar Shah, and Katherine Hamilton. Produced and edited by Stephen Lacey. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand.

This week, we’re doing something a little different: we’re turning to Jigar’s social media feeds and listener questions to guide our conversation on the latest news in clean energy.

First, we tackle the affordability crisis. President Trump recently posted on Truth Social calling renewables "the scam of the century" and blaming them for rising prices. We look at how his policies are making the crisis worse, and why Trump now owns the problem.

Then, we look at how VPPs are hitting a tipping point, explaining how companies in the space are now selling "pain medication" instead of "vitamin pills."

We also look at some big stories in solar. New tax guidance is making utility-scale harder to finance, but it gives small systems under 1.5 MW a safe harbor. Could that unlock more commercial rooftop capacity? Plus, we look at Pakistan’s DIY solar revolution, and the barriers to $2/watt solar.

Finally, we talk about building real political power. Jigar outlines an idea for creating a community trust for the clean energy industry that will strengthen local connections and increase the industry’s clout.

Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural Power. Natural Power specializes in renewable energy consulting and engineering, supporting wind, solar, and battery storage projects from concept through financing. Discover how we're creating a world powered by renewable energy at naturalpower.com.

Open Circuit is brought to you by Sungrow, the trusted provider of PV inverters and battery storage. With over 605 GW installed worldwide and a BloombergNEF ranking of “most bankable” in power conversion and energy storage, Sungrow provides solar tech you can count on. Learn more at sungrowpower.com. 

Credits: Co-hosted by Stephen Lacey, Jigar Shah, and Katherine Hamilton. Produced and edited by Stephen Lacey. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand.

We're witnessing a profound shift from discrete AI tools to always-on AI companions — systems that provide constant feedback, conversation, and support. Sound familiar? It's the 2013 movie "Her" becoming reality. 

In this episode of Open Circuit, we have a conversation with MIT’s Vijay Gadepally from our Transition-AI conference about how the spread of artificial intelligence is reshaping our digital energy footprint. 

As a senior scientist at MIT’s Lincoln Laboratory and CTO of cloud computing company Radium Cloud, Gadepally has an inside view on the energy intensity of reasoning models, AI agents, and chatbots. He details how simple tasks are now becoming energy-intensive computing events.

Gadepally also explains how operations per watt have improved dramatically, why better software can dramatically reduce emissions, and what it will take for computing innovations to keep pace with our growing appetite for AI.

Registration is now open for the Power Resilience Forum in Houston, Texas next January. Power Resilience Forum 2026 is the premier event on grid resiliency, bringing together leaders from across the power sector to address the new realities of planning and operating the grid in an era of extreme weather and wildfires.

Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural Power. Natural Power specializes in renewable energy consulting and engineering, supporting wind, solar, and battery storage projects from concept through financing. Discover how we're creating a world powered by renewable energy at naturalpower.com.

Open Circuit is brought to you by Sungrow, the trusted provider of PV inverters and battery storage. With over 605 GW installed worldwide and a BloombergNEF ranking of “most bankable” in power conversion and energy storage, Sungrow provides solar tech you can count on. Learn more at sungrowpower.com. 

Credits: Co-hosted by Stephen Lacey, Jigar Shah, and Katherine Hamilton. Produced and edited by Stephen Lacey. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand.