Ouster (OUST) is a small-cap player in LIDAR, aiming for a role in AI infrastructure and Physical AI. After a pullback following its Q3 2025 earnings, we dive into the financials to see if this "prove it" stock is a buy the dip candidate.

We analyze the company's supply chain, key customers like Serve Robotics, and break down Ouster's progress toward its long-term financial goals for revenue growth, gross margins, and operating expenses. While Q3 showed strong revenue acceleration, a look at free cash flow and the dilutive effect of the ATM program highlights the trade-offs of investing in a high-growth small-cap business.

We also revisit a special valuation method we use for companies that aren't yet profitable to determine what Ouster would be trading at if it hit a 20% free cash flow margin. Tune in for our full analysis of Ouster's stock performance and outlook.

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Chapters:00:00 Ouster's Supply Chain: Fabless Model & Key Partners (Benchmark, Fabrinet, Amazon)02:00 Amazon Warrants & Customer Relationships (Serve Robotics)03:00 Ouster's Long-Term Business Goals03:50 Revenue Growth: Hitting the 30-50% Target05:00 Gross Margins: Beating the 35-40% Goal05:30 Operating Expenses: Above Q3 '23 Levels due to R&D07:00 Free Cash Flow & Balance Sheet Concerns07:30 ATM Program & Share Dilution09:00 Ouster's Valuation: The 20% Free Cash Flow Margin Scenario11:00 The Small Bets Basket: Why Ouster is a "Prove It" Stock12:00 Our Final Thoughts on Ouster Stock

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Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.
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Nick and Kasey own shares of Ouster