The media, the Federal Reserve and President Obama continue to ignore the overwhelming evidence out this week, in fact every week for the past couple of months that the U.S. economy has already slipped back into recession
The last revision to Q4 GDP showed the economy grew by 1% for the quarter, but remember, the government never acknowledges a recession until it's practically over
The Great Recession started in December of 2007 but it wasn't until the fall of 2008 that the government finally went back and revised the numbers down to show when the recession actually began
Halfway through the recession, the Federal Reserve and Wall Street didn't even have recession in their forecast despite the fact that we had been in one for more than 6 months
What everybody is focusing on are the jobs numbers
We got another non-farm payroll report yesterday and, again, low unemployment, 4.9% and more than 200,000 jobs created
President Obama, as he peddles his fiction of economic recovery, focuses on the fact that the unemployment rate is low, and we're creating all these jobs, proving that his policies are working
He's trying to take credit for a recovery that doesn't exist. Let's look behind the numbers of yesterday's better than expected jobs report
First of all the headline number: how many jobs were created? The consensus was 190,000 and we got 242,000 - a big beat
Not only that, last month's number up to 172,000
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, still below the psychologically important 5%
Here is a detail that President Obama didn't mention at all: average hourly earnings were expected to rise .2% and that followed the big jump last month of .5%
If you remember, on my video blog last month I said that was a one-off event
That increase was the result of all the minimum wage hikes that kicked in in January
I said that number would reverse by February and that's exactly what happened
Instead of getting an increase of .2%, we got a drop of .1%
That is the first time that's happened since December of 2014
It is very rare to get a decline in average hourly wages, because prices keep rising
In the last 10 years this has only happened 6 times
In addition to the drop in earnings, hours worked actually declined from an average of 34.6 hrs to 34.4 hrs
When you take into account that Americans earned less per hour and worked fewer hours you get a total drop in weekly earnings of .7%
That is the biggest drop in weekly earnings as far back as they've been keeping records
Is this something that President Obama wants to accept responsibility for?
Here's some more information that we're not getting:
I've said for a long time that the reason so many jobs are being created is because we are transitioning from full-time employment to part-time employment
That is where all the jobs are coming from
According to the household survey, 88% of the jobs created in February were part time jobs
That means only 12% of that big 240,000 number were full time jobs!
If you look further beneath the surface at the type of jobs, you'll see that 80% of those jobs were in low-paying service sector jobs, many of them being minimum wage
We actually lost 17,000 manufacturing jobs
We lost mining jobs
We lost logging jobs
We lost high-income jobs that provide benefits to American workers, and we replaced them with low-paying part-time jobs without benefits
That is why you have so many people showing up for Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump Rallies
They are hearing about a recovery, but they are living in a recession
Let me get to some of the numbers that nobody paid attention to:
The trade deficit came out at $45.7 billion, higher than the expected $43.9 billion
In fact they revised up the December trade deficit from $43.4 billion to $44.7 billion
This will subtract from GDP in both Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year
In fact exports were the lowest in 5-1/2 years