Poll Hub

Our battleground state polling continues, as we take a look at Arizona and Pennsylvania. In one way, little has changed in Arizona since the nail-biting 2020 results, as the Governor's race is nearly dead even. But what is different is what appears to be ticket splitters giving the Senate contest a very different look. Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is looking pretty solidly blue, as Democratic candidates in both races lead with considerable margins. We have looked through the data to understand what groups in each state are driving the divergent results.

Next, it's all about predicting the future as we focus on polls and forecasts. We're joined by Data Editor for The Economist (@TheEconomist), Dan Rosenheck (@DanRosenheck), who easily switches between detailed explanations of how he's built the publication's election forecast model for the midterms to why so many people misunderstand how forecasts differ dramatically from polls. And, he gives the odds on Aaron Judge beating Roger Maris's record.

Finally, let's face the (fun) facts- growing old is a part of the road trip of life, but where will you end up? Do people retire to the place they want to or the place that just makes sense?

Our first election season polls of battleground states start in Georgia and Ohio where marquee Senate races are very close but the contests for governor in both states are less so. We look deep into the numbers to explain what's going on and what to watch for in the final seven weeks of the campaign.

Next, American families are cutting back on spending...and commitment. Our latest poll with NPR and the PBS NewsHour shows a tough time for family finances but a great labor market. NPR's Global Economics Correspondent, Stacey Vanek Smith (@svaneksmith) joins to discuss what our results might mean and what she heard from some of the people we polled and she called.

We finish with this week's fun fact which comes from the distant past (well it was Lee's birth year so not THAT distant). We thought the answer to a 1951 poll question was so interesting that we'd ask it again in 2022. More then seventy years later, the answer is both very different and oddly similar.

Does history repeat or just echo? Plenty of smart people have begun looking at the state of our hyper-partisan and hyper-fractured political landscape in America and fearing we're headed for a new civil war.

One of them joins us to discuss why the idea isn't so outlandish to those who look at what has precipitated civil wars in recent decades.

Stephen Marche, author of The Next Civil War: Dispatches from the American Future, says there are plenty of warning signs but, if one came to pass, it wouldn't look anything like the one we experienced over 160 years ago.

And, catch this: a majority Americans think a new civil war is possible.

You can follow Stephen Marche on Twitter @stephenmarche, or find his book here: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Next-Civil-War/Stephen-Marche/9781982123215

The FBI's investigation into the removal of documents from the White House by former President Donald Trump is stirring the pot amongst voters. Did he do something illegal, unethical, both, or neither? And, how does this affect his Republican base? We discuss this and more as we look toward the 2022 midterm elections.

Next, the everlasting effect of the COVID pandemic on school kids' education. We are joined by the Director of the Center for School and Student Progress at NWEA (formerly Northwest Evaluation Association), Dr. Karyn Lewis, who further explains just how far behind kids are in their curriculum post-COVID, as well as alarming school testing results. Where do we go from here and how do we get back on track?

Finally, we're talking about Joe…coffee that is. Take a sip and sit back as we take a look at how many people actually drink coffee in the United States and how this has changed from years past.

You can follow Dr. Karyn Lewis on Twitter @karynlew and @NWEA for more information.

The Poll's America Now Index has been reporting on the mood of the nation for several years and has never been quite like this. There's no getting around that America's mood is dreary and inflation is not the only (or maybe even main) reason. The funk is widespread as all four categories we track fell and several specific areas hit historic rock bottom. Some reasons may be obvious but looking deeper at the data yields some additional clues of where we are -- and where our mood may be headed.

Boston-based think tank Populace released a report in August that detail significant gaps between what the authors called peoples' "public" and "private" opinions on hot-button issues like COVID masking, abortion, public schooling, and racism. To determine what these "private" opinions are, Populace used a time-tested method employed by researchers for decades. But they used it in ways that may not show exactly what they say.

And, for the Fun Fact...laughter. Do you laugh out loud when you find something funny? Most of us do, but not everyone has that kind of funny bone.

The conventional wisdom in politics all year has been Republicans will win back the House and maybe the Senate on the wings of Joe Biden's low approval ratings and the economy's high inflation rate. But, ever since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, that narrative has been suffering. On Tuesday, New York voters chipped away further. We look deep into contests right in Marist's backyard to see what the results really say about the November midterms.

Next, we welcome author and U.C. Santa Barbara lecturer Bella DePaulo (@belladepaulo) who coined the term "Singleism" more than a decade ago. Now it's in the dictionary. She explains how society and the law discriminate against single people -- single women especially -- and why some studies about how staying single is hazardous to your health are bunk.

Then, we return to the subject of last episode's Fun Fact -- ice cream. Why? Do we really need a reason? This time, we're looking at a bunch of data from the U.S. and the world to see what flavors are the biggest faves. And make sure to stay to the end to hear about the weirdest flavor Jay has ever had. Hopefully it won't "bug" you too much...

The GOP is churning. The FBI raid of Trump's Mar-a-Lago sent some Republicans into an anti-government, "defund the FBI" tizzy, while others pushed back on jumping to conclusions. But, there's no denying Trump is still popular among Republican voters and most of the candidates he has endorsed this year call the 2020 election fraudulent or stolen…and have kept winning. 

Then, a lack of child care impacts working mothers. Our guest Taylor Orth (@Taylor_Orth) helps us take a deep dive into the world of child care with insight as a data journalist and survey researcher for @YouGovAmerica. How much does child care cost and who's bearing the brunt of the work in our two-income economy?

Finally, take a trip to your local ice cream shop before summer ends. For this week's Fun Fact, we head back to 1989 and beat the heat with an ice cream cone.

Over the last ten days, President Biden has been busy signing huge bills, killing terrorists, and getting some good economic news. Great, right? But, with approval rating still in the dumps and prices still running high, is it too little, too late to help Democrats in November?

Next, Americans just don't like or trust the "media." But, as our guest Marist College journalism professor and author of @provokingpress Kevin Lerner (@klerner) explains, that's not the case when you ask Americans about the media they follow.

Finally, Lee's Fun Fact looks at sunscreen use among Americans over the past decade. If you're like most people, you may wear more sunscreen on these bright summer days than you did in the past.

In the first post-Roe chance for voters to weigh in on abortion rights, reliably red Kansas surprised the nation. Kansas voters turned back a proposed amendment to the state constitution to remove protections for abortion rights.

Next, between massive floods, fires, and pervasive heat waves, climate change has become impossible to deny. It appears Americans are becoming believers in climate change, but is it too little, too late?

Then, New York Times journalist Emily Badger (@emilymbadger on Twitter) joins to talk about the lack of affordable housing across the country. She provides insight into what this means for first-time home buyers and gives some potential solutions to this crisis.

Finally, heat up with Lee's Fun Fact of the week! We take a look at the heatwave of 1955 to see just how hot it really was.

Joe Biden's approval rating is bad — in our most recent NPR/PBS NewsHour he hit his lowest number to date — but it’s especially bad among the youngest voters. Why are young Democrats so meh about the President? And, will it matter much in the midterms, especially since young people are the least likely to vote?

We discuss that with The Economist data journalist Elliott Morris before turning to his new book, STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them. We're big fans of this important examination of the polling industry, why polling matters, and what pollsters and journalists could be doing to make it better.

You can follow Morris on Twitter @gelliottmorris and @TheEconomist and see his book here: https://wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers