Poll Hub

The special election for U.S. Senate in Alabama has been a near-perfect encapsulation of problems with political polls. Some have used proven scientific methods, others have not. Some have been transparent with their data and methodology, others…not so much. And then there are the poll averages.

The widely reported Real Clear Politics’ last poll average prior to Election Day had Republican Roy Moore up by 2.2% over Democrat Doug Jones. The final results will likely have Jones winning by roughly 1.5%. Is this a polling problem or a reporting problem? We talk this over with Amy Walter, National Editor of the Cook Political Report and then discuss the implications of the Alabama results on the 2018 midterm elections. Will President Donald Trump’s enduring unpopularity catch up with Republicans in Congress? Can Democrats take advantage of the current climate? Will Trump change course?

With trust in the U.S. electoral system waning and indications of Russian involvement in the 2016 presidential election looming, could public opinion polls assume a new role in American democracy? In the 1930’s George Gallup envisioned the majority viewpoint as having a place in the dialogue of democracy. Eight decades later, polls are judged by their accuracy in predicting the elections. But, what if interference occurs in the electoral process? Could public opinion polls be used, as in emerging democracies, to validate election outcomes? Poll Hub picks up that question.

In a candid and enlightening interview with Ron Brownstein, CNN senior political analyst and Atlantic Media's editorial director for strategic partnerships, Brownstein expounds upon the composition of the two main political parties in the United States and how the flux of the Democratic and Republican parties helped Donald Trump win the White House in 2016. Brownstein, who was among the first to identify the significance of white, non-educated voters in recent electoral cycles, explains what he means by the “coalition of transformation” and the “coalition of restoration.” He also takes an introspective look at how, as a journalist, his interest in poll analysis stemmed from the perceived disconnect between reality and how journalists covered politics.

Allegations of sexual misconduct against the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Alabama, Roy Moore, have rocked the special election in the state. In this reddest of red states, the polls are inconsistent, and many lack the scientific rigor that instills confidence in the polls. Can the polls be believed? How volatile is the contest, and how difficult is it to identify likely voters given the national media attention surrounding this race?  Poll Hub weighs in. And according to new national poll numbers from the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has not shifted in the eleven months he has been president. While President Trump has been catering to his base, these poll numbers show he and many of his counterparts in the U.S. Congress are out of step with Americans on issues like tax cuts and health care.

President Donald Trump has certainly been in the thick of things during his first 10 months in office, but his job approval rating has changed little since he took the Oath of Office. As this episode of Poll Hub explains, President Trump maintains the support of his base and focuses on issues that interest his core group of supporters. But, a majority of Americans consider the president’s policies to mostly favor the wealthy.  As the president’s policy initiatives move forward, could that impact public opinion and President Trump’s job approval rating? Poll Hub takes on the question.