Big-picture takeaway from Google, Meta, and Microsoft earnings: The mojo AI trade took a step back, while the fundamentals took a step forward.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

I believe Jensen is suggesting about 15% upside to revenue over the next 5 quarters. The stock’s up only 4% on that likely because there are enough moving parts to keep investors from taking his comments to the bank.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Since OpenAI launched Atlas, shares of GOOG are up 6.2%, compared with the Nasdaq, which is up 1.1%. Brian and I have been using it this week and concluded that while the agent mode is unreliable, it gets smarter over time and has huge potential.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Tesla's big picture is still intact and they have plenty of cash to get there.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Cook’s time in China underscores he’s the master of navigating geopolitics and that Apple’s manufacturing shift to India will be slower than some expect.PS: There’s a bonus at the end of the video: Good news continues on iPhone lead times.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Here’s the Tesla earnings preview. Numbers are going down next year, but that's ok because it's all about autonomy.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Below the surface, China US trade talks is about rare earth and GPUs. In the end, coming to an agreement is in everyone’s best interest.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

NHTSA's probe validates Tesla’s lead.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

September deliveries of 497k were well ahead of the 475k high-end of the whisper, up 7% y/y after being down 13% in June and March. I believe the vast majority of the upside was driven by a 35% quarter over quarter jump in US sales from the tax credit, which in theory means investors should largely throw out the positive number. My "throw it out" logic misses a bigger point; the future will be autonomy and the ability to get EV units in the market profitably is a key competitive advantage. On that measure, the September deliveries are a long-term win for the company.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The AI train continues to roll. MU guided to 43% Y/Y revenue growth vs. just reported 46%.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com