ChinaTalk

Preventing an Invasion of Taiwan

Listen Later

Taiwan’s government agencies are battered by 5 million cyberattacks every day. China is holding invasion drills at a replica of Taiwan’s presidential palace in Inner Mongolia. Last week, the PLA openly rehearsed an encirclement of Taiwan in so-called “punishment drills.”

What happened to deterrence in the Taiwan Strait? Can the status quo be saved?

To discuss strategies for avoiding WWIII, ChinaTalk interviewed Jared McKinney of the Air War College and Peter Harris of Colorado State University, who recently co-authored a monograph entitled, “Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait.”

Co-hosting today is ChinaTalk’s resident Taiwan consultant, Nicholas Welch.

We discuss…

  • Evidence of deterrence decay in the status quo;
  • The difference between constraints and restraints, and how they fit together to form a lattice of successful deterrence;
  • Whether symbolic solidarity with Taiwan does more harm than good;
  • The values and costs of strategic ambiguity;
  • How Taiwan can optimize its deterrence posture;
  • Lessons from the dance of death between Iran and Israel;
  • Objective factors for measuring invasion risk, and whether the world should be scared about 2027;
  • How to analyze decision trees for fundamentally irrational decisions;

    • ... and more!


    Outtro music: MJ116, 辣台妹 (HOT CHICK) - Official music video: MJ116【辣台妹 HOT CHICK】- (youtube link)

    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    ...more
    View all episodesView all episodes
    Download on the App Store
    ChinaTalkBy Jordan Schneider
    • 4.6
    • 4.6
    • 4.6
    • 4.6
    • 4.6

    4.6

    21 ratings

    More shows like ChinaTalk

    View all
    Odd Lots by Bloomberg

    Odd Lots

    1,929 Listeners

    EconTalk by Russ Roberts

    EconTalk

    4,261 Listeners

    Foreign Policy Live by Foreign Policy

    Foreign Policy Live

    602 Listeners

    War on the Rocks by Ryan Evans

    War on the Rocks

    1,070 Listeners

    Sinica Podcast by Kaiser Kuo

    Sinica Podcast

    609 Listeners

    ChinaPower by CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies

    ChinaPower

    213 Listeners

    The President’s Inbox by Council on Foreign Relations

    The President’s Inbox

    717 Listeners

    ChinaTalk by Jordan Schneider

    ChinaTalk

    288 Listeners

    Net Assessment by War on the Rocks

    Net Assessment

    423 Listeners

    Dwarkesh Podcast by Dwarkesh Patel

    Dwarkesh Podcast

    517 Listeners

    Pekingology by Center for Strategic and International Studies

    Pekingology

    142 Listeners

    Ones and Tooze by Foreign Policy

    Ones and Tooze

    341 Listeners

    The Foreign Affairs Interview by Foreign Affairs Magazine

    The Foreign Affairs Interview

    449 Listeners

    Face-Off: The U.S. vs China by Airwave Media

    Face-Off: The U.S. vs China

    164 Listeners

    The Economics Show by Financial Times

    The Economics Show

    149 Listeners