Private Capital Call

This week, we're joined by Igor Baranovski, Chief Portfolio Manager on the Alternative Investments team at PenSam, a Danish pension fund managing over $30 billion in assets across public and private markets. In his role, Igor leads credit investments and portfolio construction across the full credit spectrum, overseeing the entire investment process spanning both fund and direct investments as well as manager selection. With over a decade of experience in investment management, he brings deep expertise in alternative credit strategies.

In this episode, Igor shares how PenSam's long-term, member-focused mandate shapes a disciplined approach to portfolio construction, even amid geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility. We dig into recent credit stress events that have rattled BDC investors, and Igor offers an institutional allocator's perspective on what the market is getting wrong - including the critical distinction between liquidity risk and credit risk. We also explore how AI disruption is showing up in LP due diligence conversations, what PenSam looks for when selecting a private credit manager, and Igor closes with reflections on the lessons and moments that have shaped his approach to investing and leadership.

This week we welcome back our first returning guest, renowned economist Dr. Mickey Levy - Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and longstanding Member of the Shadow Open Market Committee, who spent over 22 years as Chief Economist at Bank of America and later Berenberg Capital Markets, and now runs MDL Insights, focusing on monetary and fiscal policy.

In this episode, Randy and Mickey discuss the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy heading into the second half of 2026, why easing oil prices could bring inflation down further, and what's really driving strong employment gains despite negative consumer sentiment. They also dig into AI's short- and long-term impact on labor markets, overlooked structural issues like education, skills training, and immigration policy, the Fed's rate outlook under new leadership, and a deep dive into private credit - separating real risks from market misconceptions.

This week we're joined by Sonali Basak, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, a global fintech leader transforming access to alternative investments. Sonali leads strategic thought leadership across public and private markets, delivering actionable insights to financial advisors, investors, and asset managers worldwide. Before joining iCapital, she spent 12 years at Bloomberg, most recently as the network's lead global finance correspondent and anchor, hosting the flagship show Open Interest and spearheading Bloomberg Invest. One of the most trusted voices in financial journalism, she now brings that same data-driven rigor to alternative investments.

We sit down with Sonali to unpack one of the most turbulent stretches private credit has faced in recent memory, from AI disruption to elevated redemption activity across major vehicles. We dig into the biggest misunderstandings fueling investor anxiety, particularly around liquidity, and the key signals advisors should watch to separate real risk from headline noise. We also trace the evolution of alternatives in high-net-worth portfolios, the education gap facing advisors and clients alike, and the criteria Sonali uses to evaluate private credit managers in today's increasingly complex environment.

This week we have a special edition of Private Capital Call. We're turning the tables on our own Randy Schwimmer, as Bloomberg Radio's Paul Sweeney takes the host chair to mark a milestone worth celebrating the relaunch of The Lead Left as The Lead. What started as a humble internal monthly newsletter at Chase Manhattan Bank in 1993 has grown into one of private capital's most widely read and respected publications, reaching over 46,000 subscribers and now entering an exciting new chapter.

In this candid and wide-ranging conversation, Randy reflects on three decades of educating investors about private credit - from explaining LIBOR to rookie bankers, to navigating the Great Recession, to making the case today for what he calls the Platinum Era of private credit. Randy and Paul dig into why the core middle market has quietly outperformed its larger counterparts, how retail investors are just beginning to discover this asset class, and why ground-level, defensive businesses remain the backbone of private credit's enduring appeal.

This week, we're joined by William (Bill) Cox and Eric Rosenthal from KBRA. Bill serves as Chief Rating Officer, leading KBRA's global ratings platform and is widely recognized as the driving force behind the firm's private credit and private markets initiatives. Eric is Head of Default Research at KBRA DLD, where he focuses on default analysis across private credit, leveraged loan, and high yield markets, and publishes the monthly Direct Lending Default Report, the most comprehensive defaultpublication in the private credit space. We're pleased to have them both here today.

In this episode, Bill and Eric cut through the noise surrounding private credit to share what the data is actually telling us. They break down KBRA's 2026 default rate forecast and explain why it stands in sharp contrast to the double-digit predictions making headlines. They also discuss how methodology differences are driving wildly different default numbers across the market, which sectors deserve the closest attention right now - including a deep dive into AI risk within the software space - and why declining recovery rates may be a biggerconcern for investors than the default rate itself. They close with guidance for both institutional and retail investors on how to evaluate private credit managers and cut through misleading market commentary.

This week, we're joined by ⁠⁠David Robinson⁠, the James and Gail Vander Weide Professor at ⁠Duke University's Fuqua School of Business⁠ and Research Director of ⁠Duke Innovation and Entrepreneurship⁠ Initiative. An internationally recognized expert in private equity, venture capital, and entrepreneurial finance, his research has been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, and The Economist. He also advises the Swedish House of Finance, the Private Equity Research Council, and a range of private equityfirms and technology startups.

⁠In this episode, David shares key takeaways from his widely read paper "⁠⁠Why is Private Lending So Popular⁠" ⁠(⁠co-author with Melanie Wallskog) and challenges some of the most common misconceptions about how private credit really works. He breaks down how business development companies (BDCs) work, the regulatory constraints that shape their risk and return profile, and why retail investors are increasingly bumping up against liquidity limits in non-traded vehicles. David also addresses the redemption fears sweeping the market and why he believes the underlying fundamentals of private credit remain strong despite near-term turbulence. He closes with a forward-looking take on the potential inclusion of private credit in 401(k) plans and why, despite today's uncertain market environment, he sees careers in private markets as full of opportunity for the next generation.

This week, we're joined by David Robinson, the James and Gail Vander Weide Professor at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business and Research Director of Duke Innovation and Entrepreneurship Initiative. An internationally recognized expert in private equity, venture capital, and entrepreneurial finance, his research has been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, and The Economist. He also advises the Swedish House of Finance, the Private Equity Research Council, and a range of private equityfirms and technology startups.

In this episode, David shares key takeaways from his widely read paper "Why is Private Lending So Popular" (co-author with Melanie Wallskog) and challenges some of the most common misconceptions about how private credit really works. He breaks down how business development companies (BDCs) work, the regulatory constraints that shape their risk and return profile, and why retail investors are increasingly bumping up against liquidity limits in non-traded vehicles. David also addresses the redemption fears sweeping the market and why he believes the underlying fundamentals of private credit remain strong despite near-term turbulence. He closes with a forward-looking take on the potential inclusion of private credit in 401(k) plans and why, despite today's uncertain market environment, he sees careers in private markets as full of opportunity for the next generation.

This week, we’re pleased to welcome Ryan Eisenman, co-founder and CEO of Arch, the leading operating system for private markets. Arch helps investors and advisors manage private credit, private equity, hedge funds, and real estate in one place, modernizing a historically manual, portal-by-portal experience. With more than seven years leading the firm, Ryan brings a practical perspective on where private markets are headed and how technology can help.

In the conversation, Ryan breaks down how the private investment workflow has evolved since Arch launched, why the “buying and owning” experience is still far more complex than in public markets, and where the industry needs more standardization and transparency. We also discuss how AI is starting to improve diligence and reporting-especially by summarizing investor letters and pulling key terms from dense documents-so investors can spend less time on rote tasks and more time on analysis. Ryan closes with lessons from building Arch, early challenges winning institutional trust, and advice for young entrepreneurs.

To celebrate Churchill's 20th anniversary, I am honored to finally welcome my longtime business partner and closest friend, Ken Kencel, to the podcast for the very first time. Ken is President and CEO of Churchill Asset Management, a $64 billion private capital manager providing customized financing solutions to U.S. middle market private equity firms and their portfolio companies. With over 35 years in the industry, he is one of the most respected voices in private capital, a frequent commentator on Bloomberg, CNBC, and The Wall Street Journal, named one of Private Debt Investor's 30 ChangeMakers, and most recently the recipient of a Lifetime Achievement Award from The M&A Advisor.

In this episode, we cover the full arc, from launching Churchill in 2006 right into the Global Financial Crisis, to building one of the most differentiated private capital platforms in the market today. Ken shares why the core middle market remains the best kept secret in private credit, how private equity sponsor relationships have transformed the way capital is deployed, and what it took to build Churchill through key partnerships, from TIAA and Nuveen, to Arcmont, to Temasek and Hunter Point. We also look ahead at where the next wave of capital is coming from, including retail investors and insurance, what will separate the managers from the pack, and why culture may be the most underrated competitive advantage in asset management.

Today, we are pleased to welcome Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. In her role, Ellen combines her passion for economics with a talent for guiding investors through turbulent times. She is also a member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, where she advises the U.S. Treasury Department on the economy and debt management, and was recently recognized as one of Barron's 100 Most Influential Women in Finance.

In this episode, Ellen walks us through the biggest lessons from 2025, the Year of the Tariff, and what has shifted as we head into 2026. We dig into the economic indicators she watches most closely, from the labor market to whether people are dining out. We explore what the AI boom really means for asset allocators, which adjacent sectors may offer smarter entry points than chasing AI directly, and how to think about where we are in the cycle when markets move on a dime. We close with Ellen's outlook on rates, housing, and what she sees as the biggest potential upside surprise of the year.

Note: This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2026. Views expressed reflect opinions at the time of recording and may not represent current perspectives.