Farmer sentiment dropped sharply to start 2026, reflecting growing economic concerns across U.S. agriculture. But beyond the headline decline in the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, this episode focuses on what the shift signals for farm financial stress, investment decisions, and risk management in the year ahead.

In this Purdue Commercial AgCast episode, Michael Langemeier reviews the January survey results and explains the forces behind the drop in producer sentiment. Financial pressure appears to be building, as more producers report tighter cash flow, increased operating loan needs, and a growing share of loans tied to unpaid carryover debt. At the same time, machinery investment plans are slowing, and more farmers expect challenging conditions for U.S. agriculture over the next five years.

Export concerns—especially related to soybean competitiveness with Brazil—also weighed on expectations. While short-term farmland value expectations remain steady, strong land values are supporting balance sheets even as margins stay tight due to high input costs and lower output prices. The episode highlights the contrast between stable asset values and stressed cash flow, a key theme shaping the farm financial outlook.

This discussion goes beyond the numbers to focus on the implications for farm businesses and what producers should be watching as 2026 unfolds.

Full Ag Economy Barometer report: 👉 https://purdue.ag/agbarometer

The Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey.

For farm management content, visit: https://purdue.ag/commercialag

Subscribe to audio: https://purdue.ag/agcast

Socials: https://twitter.com/PUCommercialAg,  https://www.facebook.com/PUCommercialAg

#Purdue #AgBarometer #FarmManagement #FarmEconomy #AgOutlook

Are autonomous tractors and farm automation actually cost-effective? In this episode of the Purdue Commercial AgCast, Chad Fiechter and Josh Strine discuss new research on the economics of large-scale autonomous farm machinery and what it means for machinery investment and labor strategy on commercial corn and soybean farms. The results show that under today’s performance and cost levels, most farms aren’t yet in the economic “ballpark” for autonomy — helping producers understand when it could make sense and when it likely doesn’t.

The conversation covers machinery efficiency, hardware and software costs, labor wages, and equipment operating hours, along with how these factors affect profitability in whole-farm systems. It also explores where autonomous equipment might work first — including labor-constrained farms, expansion situations, and specific field operations — and how future improvements in technology could shift the outlook.

📄 Research article: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atech.2025.101599

📝 Transcript: [TRANSCRIPT LINK]

#AutonomousFarming #FarmManagement #AgTechnology #Purdue #AgriculturalEconomics #CommercialAgriculture

Adaptability and strong relationships are becoming just as important as yields and costs in today’s farm economy—and that’s the focus of this episode of the Purdue Commercial AgCast. Chad Fiechter is joined by Ben Brown of the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), along with guest hosts, graduate students Avery Pound and Jonah Armstrong, for a conversation that builds on Brown’s recent presentation at the Purdue Top Farmer Conference.

Following his talk on the long-term outlook for corn and soybean markets, Brown expands the discussion to explore how global economic conditions, energy markets, and commodity pricing trends influence farm profitability over time. While cotton is used as a case study in parts of the conversation, the focus remains on broader lessons that apply across crop and livestock operations, including long-run decision-making, strategic partnerships, and how changes in capital and land ownership are reshaping agriculture. The episode highlights why understanding market signals—and building the right relationships—matters for farmers navigating uncertainty and positioning their operations for the future.

Farmer sentiment dipped slightly in December, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropping 3 points to 136. The decline was attributable to a softening in producers’ long-term outlook. The Future Expectations Index fell 4 points from the previous month to 140, while the Current Conditions Index remained steady at 128. Crop producers expressed increased concern about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports as Brazil expands its role in global markets, contributing to the more cautious outlook. The survey was conducted Dec. 1-5, 2025.

Purdue ag economists James Mintert and Michael Langemeier review the results from the Ag Economy Barometer and give their insights into farmer sentiment and the farm economy.

The Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. Further details on the full report is available at https://purdue.edu/agbarometer. Slides and the transcript from the discussion can be found at https://purdue.ag/agcast204.

You can find the FULL video episode on our YouTube channel. Visit https://youtu.be/0Jnm3_yti_g to subscribe and watch.

Podcast provided by Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. For more economic information and insights on the Ag Economy Barometer, visit us at http://purdue.edu/commercialag.

Subscribe to audio: https://purdue.ag/agcast

Socials: https://twitter.com/PUCommercialAg, https://www.facebook.com/PUCommercialAg

Chad Fiechter and Todd Kuethe reflect on their conversations this past year and talk about future plans. They cover past discussions with notable guests, including Nate Kauffman from the Federal Reserve, Matt Erickson from the Senate, Joe Balagtas from the White House, ag investing consultant Joe Suttles, and Indian hog farmer Brian Martin. Todd shares his upcoming sabbatical plans to teach economies on the Semester at Sea program, while they both share more on their recent trip to Arkansas to learn about rice farming. They explore the impact of AI in agriculture and highlight the importance of understanding different agricultural practices and community perspectives. The conversation wraps up with light-hearted discussions on personal preferences and their hopes for future podcast topics.

Find all the past episodes discussed: https://purdue.ag/agcast

Podcast provided by Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. For more economic and farm management information, visit us at http://purdue.edu/commercialag.

Transcript from the discussion can be found at https://purdue.ag/agcast203.

Check out all of our Purdue Commercial AgCast video interviews on YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCS0sw5w6odSS111rbY1glHw 

Socials: https://twitter.com/PUCommercialAg, https://www.facebook.com/PUCommercialAg, https://www.linkedin.com/company/center-for-commercial-agriculture

Whoosh in-out #1 by beman87 -- https://freesound.org/s/162841/ -- License: Attribution 3.0

November brought the highest farmer sentiment reading since June, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer jumping 10 points from October to 139. The increase was driven primarily by producers’ more optimistic outlook for the future, as the Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144, while the Current Conditions Index dipped 2 points to 128. November’s survey is the first conducted after the late-October announcement of a U.S.-China trade pact that includes provisions to expand U.S. agricultural exports and revealed a notable improvement in producers’ confidence in future export opportunities. Sentiment also received support from a sharp rise in crop prices between mid-October and mid-November. The barometer survey took place Nov. 10-14.

Purdue ag economists James Mintert and Michael Langemeier review the results from the November Ag Economy Barometer and give their insights into farmer sentiment and the farm economy.

The Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. Further details on the full report is available at https://purdue.edu/agbarometer. Slides and the transcript from the discussion can be found at https://purdue.ag/agcast202.

You can find the FULL video episode on our YouTube channel. Visit https://youtu.be/KDhYF5vTo_M to subscribe and watch.

Podcast provided by Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. For more economic information and insights on the Ag Economy Barometer, visit us at http://purdue.edu/commercialag.

Subscribe to audio: https://purdue.ag/agcast

Socials: https://twitter.com/PUCommercialAg, https://www.facebook.com/PUCommercialAg

Brian Martin, a fifth-generation pig farmer from Indiana, joins hosts Todd Kuethe and Chad Fiechter in this episode of Purdue Commercial AgCast. Martin shares his extensive experience in raising swine across the country, his involvement with the Indiana Pork Producers Association, and the vital role of internships and diverse experiences in agriculture. He also shares insight into the evolution of the hog industry, the complexities of farm management, and the impact of state policies on agriculture. From strategic business decisions to the challenges of labor and disease management, this episode provides a comprehensive look at the world of modern pig farming. 

Learn more about Martin Family Farms: https://teammartinfarms.com/

Podcast provided by Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. For more economic and farm management information, visit us at http://purdue.edu/commercialag.

Transcript from the discussion can be found at https://purdue.ag/agcast201.

Subscribe to audio: https://purdue.ag/agcast

Check out all of our Purdue Commercial AgCast video interviews on YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCS0sw5w6odSS111rbY1glHw 

Socials: https://twitter.com/PUCommercialAg, https://www.facebook.com/PUCommercialAg, https://www.linkedin.com/company/center-for-commercial-agriculture

U.S. farmer sentiment edged slightly higher in October, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rising 3 points to a reading of 129. The increase was fueled primarily by a rise in the Index of Current Conditions, which climbed 8 points to 130, while the Index of Future Expectations was virtually unchanged at 129, just 1 point higher than in September. Farmers’ appraisals of current conditions highlight a “tale of two economies”: Livestock producers remain highly optimistic about their farm conditions, partly supported by record-high profitability in the beef sector, while crop producers report a more pessimistic view of the current situation on their farms due to low profit margins across major crop enterprises. The barometer survey took place Oct. 13-17.

Purdue ag economists James Mintert and Michael Langemeier review the results from the October Ag Economy Barometer and give their insights into farmer sentiment and the farm economy.

The Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. Further details on the full report is available at https://purdue.edu/agbarometer. Slides and the transcript from the discussion can be found at https://purdue.ag/agcast198.

You can find the FULL video episode on our YouTube channel. Visit https://youtu.be/Ujekqgm6DQk to subscribe and watch.

Podcast provided by Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. For more economic information and insights on the Ag Economy Barometer, visit us at http://purdue.edu/commercialag.

Subscribe to audio: https://purdue.ag/agcast

Socials: https://twitter.com/PUCommercialAg, https://www.facebook.com/PUCommercialAg

Joe Balagtas, a former senior economist at the White House's Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) and professor of agricultural economics at Purdue joins colleague hosts Todd Kuethe and Chad Fiechter in this episode of the Purdue Commercial AgCast. Balagtas shares his unique experiences working at the CEA during the Trump administration and his role in providing the President with critical economic information. He provides a behind-the-scenes glimpse of his daily life, the stress and fulfillment of working under extreme pressure, and the lessons learned which he brings back to academia. The conversation provides insight into the importance of having specialized economists in policymaking and the dynamic nature of the White House during significant events like the trade war and COVID-19 pandemic.

Podcast provided by Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. For more economic and farm management information, visit us at http://purdue.edu/commercialag.

Slides and the transcript from the discussion can be found at https://purdue.ag/agcast199.

Subscribe to audio: https://purdue.ag/agcast

Check out all of our Purdue Commercial AgCast video interviews on YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCS0sw5w6odSS111rbY1glHw 

Socials: https://twitter.com/PUCommercialAg, https://www.facebook.com/PUCommercialAg, https://www.linkedin.com/company/center-for-commercial-agriculture

Farmer sentiment held steady in September, as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose just 1 point to a reading of 126. However, there was a shift in producers’ perceptions of current conditions and their expectations for the future. The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 122, while the Index of Future Expectations climbed 5 points to 128. The survey was conducted following the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s release of the September Crop Production report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. These reflected farmers’ concerns about current conditions, particularly over record-high corn and soybean yields, which were pressuring crop prices. At the same time, optimism about the future was supported by farmers’ belief that U.S. policy is “headed in the right direction” and by expectations that potential government support, like the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP), will provide payments to farmers in compensation for lower commodity prices. The barometer survey took place Sept. 15-19.

Purdue ag economists James Mintert and Michael Langemeier review the results from the September Ag Economy Barometer and give their insights into farmer sentiment and the farm economy.

The Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. Further details on the full report is available at https://purdue.edu/agbarometer. Slides and the transcript from the discussion can be found at https://purdue.ag/agcast198.

You can find the FULL video episode on our YouTube channel. Visit https://youtu.be/Ujekqgm6DQk to subscribe and watch.

Podcast provided by Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. For more economic information and insights on the Ag Economy Barometer, visit us at http://purdue.edu/commercialag.

Subscribe to audio: https://purdue.ag/agcast

Socials: https://twitter.com/PUCommercialAg, https://www.facebook.com/PUCommercialAg