Another day, another 450-point swing in the Dow Jones

The market opened about 250 points higher off the back of overseas markets

Japan was the standout; it was up about 7% on the hope of more money printing

All overseas markets were stronger and the U.S. followed that lead, but at the end of the day, the market was down about 240 points, a lot of selling coming in the final hour

Huge swings almost daily over several weeks generally indicates a change in trend

The long-term trend of a rising market followed by extreme volatility usually marks the end of that trend

All this volatility is based on rate hike uncertainty

Sentiments range from rate hikes coming either in September, October, or December

The first rate hike is not scaring everybody, it is the consequences of interest rate normalizaion

If the Fed does raise rates, I think the market will start looking toward the next rate cut

This bubble is so big, the slightest pin will prick it

The Fed's only option will be stimulus to get out of the next recession

The cycle will be much shorter because of the amount of debt we have

Sentiment is coming from everywhere asking the Fed not to raise rates, which plays into the Fed's hand

This disguises the Fed's actual intention not to raise rates

Market volatility today was probable due to the JOLTS report today which unexpectedly jumped up to the highest level in years, indicating a huge number unfilled jobs

The JOLTS numbers have been good for years, and wages still have not gone up

This is just the raw number of jobs, so these may be a larger number of part time jobs open replacing full time jobs

Many low-paying jobs won't be filled because entitlements provide higher compensation

Everyone is on pins and needles because they know that cheap money is the only thing that is fueling the economy - it's not real earnings

The market may have sold off anyway because there has been a lot of technical damage done to this market and it is likely to go down until the Fed admits that rates are not going up

The stock market, unlike the foreign exchange market or the commodities market or the emerging markets have not discounted rate hike normalization

This means that if the Fed does rates by a quarter point, the dollar could sell off because it is too little too late

It could be the shortest tightening cycle ever

The stock market needs to know that the Fed is not going to raise rates

The U.S. will lose its safe haven appeal

One small example why the Fed can't raise rates is the sub-prime Auto Loan bubble, which is now above a trillion dollars

The short-term benefit to the economy is increased manufacturing, inventory and jobs

But the huge reduction in credit quality of these loans provides risk of fewer future sales due to longer payoff terms

It is much easier to default on an auto loan than it is to default on a home

If we have a trillion dollars in auto loans, if we go into recession next year, we would lose at least $100 - 200 billion on car loans which will further exacerbate the recession in a big way

High-paying jobs in the auto industry will be lost,and the Fed has to know this already

Another trend is a record high in auto leases because they offer lower monthly payments

Leases are not the best choice unless they are bought for a business, providing a tax write-off

Otherwise, for personal use, your payments never end - you never own the car/li>

I have already recommended not to borrow money to buy a car

Save your money and buy a used car you can afford

In the Chinese economy, most cars are purchased with cash, from savings

The world is confusing our bubble economy for a legitimate economy, and they've made this mistake before

They made this mistake in the 1990's, in the housing bubble and they're making the same mistake again

The third time will be the charm, the fallout will be so big that people will finally get the message that this is a bubble