Rational Security

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott celebrated the third anniversary of Rational Security 2.0 with their Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Natalie Orpett, and Tyler McBrien, who sat in brutal judgment as the three co-hosts pitched them their hottest takes yet, including:

• Are concerns about judicial ethics overblown?
• Do ethics require that we open the borders and make whoever wants to become one a citizen?
• Should we just treat AI systems like the wild animals they are?

Which takes are undercooked, which too hot, and which are just right? Listen in and decide!

Meanwhile, for object lessons, Scott shared some news about the future of Rational Security moving forward. Listen to the end of the episode to find out what!

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This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler "Spicy Tyler" McBrien to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:

• “Jack Smith Takes a Mulligan on his Big Swing.” A grand jury has re-indicted former President Trump for his actions relating to the Jan. 6 insurrection, after Special Counsel Jack Smith trimmed and massaged the allegations to accommodate the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity. How different is this indictment? What are the next steps in the trial? And will these new allegations have better odds of surviving Supreme Court review?
• “An Eye for an Eye Leaves the Whole World in a Bind.” This past week, Israel and Hezbollah traded another vicious round of attacks along Israel’s shared northern border with Lebanon, as part of the long-awaited response to Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah leaders a month ago. Now the region is waiting with bated breath to see whether this will be the end of it or the start of a larger war. How significant is the risk of escalation? And what will this mean for, among other things, ongoing ceasefire negotiations in relation to Gaza?
• “Send Me a Kiss by Wire.” Pavel Durov, the CEO of the Russia-based encrypted messaging platform Telegram—which, in addition to being the platform of choice in much of the world, has become a popular choice among criminals and terrorist groups due to its lack of content moderation—was arrested earlier this week in Paris, and is under questioning in relation to possible criminal charges arising from the criminal use of Telegram. What is motivating this move by French authorities? 

For object lessons, Quinta recommended "When a Department Self-Destructs," Jennifer Schoenefeld's dramatic account of the in-fighting within Pomona College's English department. Scott threw his endorsement in (alongside the Academy's) for the beautifully mumblecore-ish film "Past Lives." And Tyler urged listeners to check out Tanya Gold's upsetting account of the commercialization of the Holocaust, tellingly entitled "My Auschwitz Vacation."

Note: Our discussion of Pavel Durov's arrest in France predated his indictment by French authorities.

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This week, Alan and Quinta sat down with Molly Reynolds and Kevin Frazier to talk about the week’s big developments, including:

• “It can always get worse…” Although President Biden’s replacement by Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket has reenergized the Democrats’ bid to retain the White House, the race is still a tossup, and former President Trump could well reenter the White House in 2025. Have we successfully “Trump-proofed” the government in anticipation? 
• “Run DNC.” The Democratic National Convention is taking place this week in Chicago, and it’s a striking contrast to last month’s Republican convention. That event was largely a celebration of one person, Donald Trump. By contrast, the DNC is as much about the party as it is about its nominee, Kamala Harris. What does it say about the relative strengths of America’s two parties and what that means for the future of American democracy?
• “Making the Three Laws of Robotics Actual Laws?” California’s SB 1047, the controversial AI safety law, is set to pass the legislature this month and head to Governor Gavin Newsom’s desk for his signature or veto. Many in the AI industry, as well as even some members of California’s own congressional delegation, oppose the bill on the grounds that it will harm innovation. Others, on the other side, worry that the bill doesn’t do enough to protect against AI harms. What’s actually in the bill, and what would its passage mean for the future of AI?

For object lessons, Alan introduced us to his favorite flower. Kevin recommended the classic John Steinbeck novel “East of Eden,” while Quinta has been listening to a podcast about sex testing in elite track and field. And fresh off the appearance by Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr at the DNC, Molly dusted off this 2016 NYT Magazine profile of Kerr for those interested.

Additional Links:

• Quinta’s Atlantic article on the failure to Trump-proof the government
• Molly and Quinta’s article on the limitations of the Jan. 6 Committee as a model for future investigative efforts

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This week, the whole gang—Alan, Quinta, and Scott—got back together to discuss the week's big national security news, including:

• “In Post-Soviet Russia, Ukraine Invade You!” In an ironic reversal, Ukraine invaded Russia this past week, seizing substantial portions of the oblast of Kursk and surprising both Russian forces and Ukrainian allies in what appears to be its most successful military venture in more than a year. Why did Ukraine take this step? What will it mean in the longer arc of this war?
• “The X is for Extremism.” Since the tragic murder of three young girls earlier this month, the United Kingdom has been struck by violent riots, the perpetrators of which appear to believe (incorrectly) that the attacker in question was a Syrian asylum seeker, in substantial part due to far-right disinformation being spread by social media, including by X owner Elon Musk. What do these events tell us about the effects of disinformation and their intersection with political violence?
• “But Our Emails!” The Trump campaign has apparently been hacked, with internal correspondence—including a lengthy vetting paper on vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance—being leaked to reporters. The campaign has blamed Iran, but without any apparent substantiation. Is this a real possibility? Or is it another example of the disinformation—regarding crowd sizes, Kamala Harris’s background, and other topics—that has become a prominent part of the campaign’s messaging?

Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity.

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This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's very big national security news stories, including:

• “The Waiting Game.” The Middle East is on edge this week as it awaits a possible attack by Iran or Hezbollah on Israel in response to the suspected assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders last week, including the chairman of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed while visiting Tehran for the swearing in of its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. What might a response look like, if there is one? And what does it mean for the region, including the prospects of a Gaza ceasefire?
• “Stay Weird, Austin.” Just days after the announcement of a long-negotiated plea deal for three of the four remaining defendants in the military commission trial relating to the 9/11 attacks, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin took the surprising and still largely unexplained move of intervening to rescind that deal and remove the convening authority that had approved it. What can explain Austin’s actions? What will they mean for the future of the military commissions?
• “A Favorable Exchange Rate.” In a surprise move, the Biden administration and several European allies concluded a massive prisoner exchange with Russia, which resulted in the release of 16 detained U.S. and European nationals and Russian dissidents, among them Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan. In exchange, Russia received eight Russian agents, including convicted assassin Vadim Krasikov. Is this a win for the Biden administration? What does it tell us about the state of hostage politics—and its future?

For object lessons, Alan expressed his new passion for pottery. Quinta endorsed synchronized/artistic swimming as her favorite Olympic event, thanks in part to a surprise cameo from Jason Momoa. Scott recommended the movie Thelma for a funny and compassionate take on aging. And Ben shared how a recent near-death experience led him to dump chalk dust outside the Russian Embassy.

Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity.

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This week, Alan and Quinta were joined by Kevin Frazier to talk through some of the week’s biggest national security news, including:

• “KOSA Nostra.” An overwhelming majority of senators voted to pass the Kids Online Safety Act, also known as KOSA—a bipartisan piece of legislation that would impose new responsibilities on online platforms in looking after their underage users. Despite the 91-3 vote in the Senate, KOSA has faced strong opposition from a number of civil rights and internet freedom groups, and its path ahead in the House remains uncertain. What’s next for the bill, and what does its success so far say about the state of tech policy in the U.S.?
• “Herding Llamas.” The company formerly known as Facebook announced the release of a new AI large language model, Llama 3.1. Meta described the model as “open-source”—but is it responsible to release such a powerful model that way? And what does this mean for the AI arms race in Silicon Valley?
• “Keeping the Nine in Line.” Fresh on the heels of the Supreme Court’s ruling granting presidents broad immunity from criminal prosecution, President Biden announced his support for a slate of reforms aimed squarely at the Court: a constitutional amendment ruling out presidential immunity, along with 18-year term limits and a binding code of conduct for Supreme Court justices. But any of these proposals would face a difficult road toward implementation. What is the White House’s aim here?

For object lessons, Alan suggested that listeners might enjoy homemade cucumber agua fresca as a cooling summer beverage. Kevin is enjoying a new song by Kelsea Ballerini and Noah Kahan. And Quinta recommended the movie I Saw the TV Glow.

Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity.

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This week, Alan and Scott were joined by Lawfare teammates Molly Reynolds and Eugenia Lostri to talk over the week’s big national security news, including…

• “Bye Biden.” President Biden made the historic decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race over the weekend. He swiftly endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris, who now appears poised to become the Democratic candidate at the party’s convention next month. How might Harris be different from Biden, both as a candidate and as a president? And what will the change mean for the 2024 race?
• “The CrowdStrikes Back.” Countless businesses around the world found their Windows computers disabled this past week, due to a faulty update pushed out by the prominent cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. The consequences continue to ripple out, including waves of canceled and rescheduled flights at numerous major airlines. What can this incident teach us about the security of our computer infrastructure? And are there ways to avoid similar incidents in the future?
• “Netanya-who?” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give his long-awaited speech to Congress later today. But the normally high-profile event has been overshadowed by recent news relating to the 2024 presidential race, potentially mitigating some of its intended effect. What should we expect from Bibi’s speech? And how will it impact progress towards a ceasefire in Gaza—and U.S.-Israeli relations more broadly?

For object lessons, Alan recommended Jeffrey Eugenides’ novel "The Marriage Plot." Scott sent a love letter to the New York Times’ odd coverage of world culture, including this week’s exposé on Japanese backpacks. Molly gave the people what they want, with a new public radio podcast recommendation: NPR’s "Embedded: Supermajority." And Eugenia carried on a longstanding tradition of bringing in video game recommendations, this time for the cozy agriculture sim Stardew Valley. 

Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity.

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This week Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to talk through one of the most eventful weeks in national security news in recent history, including:

• “Too Close for Comfort.” Former President Trump narrowly avoided an assassination attempt this past weekend that ultimately left one rally-goer dead and two others critically wounded. While Trump and President Biden both made calls for national unity, several of Trump’s close allies were quick to blame the Biden administration’s rhetoric painting Trump as a threat to democracy. What will this historic event mean for the 2024 election—and for the rise in political violence and related rhetoric that’s preceded it?
• “Cannon Fodder.” After months of glacial judicial proceedings, federal District Court Judge Aileen Cannon finally did what many of her critics had long expected and dismissed the special counsel’s criminal case against former President Trump, based in large part on an aggressive reading of the Appointments Clause and narrow reading of the legislation allowing for the special counsel’s appointment. How credible is her holding? And what will it mean for the future of the trial?
• “Hillbilly Pedigree.” Former President Trump opened the Republican Party’s national convention this week by announcing his new pick for Vice President: J.D. Vance, the first-term senator from Ohio, author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” and a one-time critic of Trump who has since become one of his most aggressive ideological allies, going even further than Trump on issues ranging from economic populism to opposition to U.S. support for Ukraine. What does his nomination mean for the race, for the Republican Party, and for the future of national security policy? 

For object lessons, Alan shared how he rediscovered his love of video games. Quinta brought us another update from the Garden State, regarding the conviction of its senior senator. Scott shared a great story from political history, about the origins of the weird relationship between Richard Nixon and NBA star Wilt Chamberlain. And Natalie endorsed her latest TV indulgence: the HBO show Hacks.

Promotion: Use code RATIONALSECURITY at the link here to get an exclusive 60% off an annual Incogni plan: https://incogni.com/rationalsecurity.

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This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Lawfare Contributing Editor Eric Ciaramella to talk over all the national security news causing traffic issues in D.C., including:

• “Ukraine in the Membrane.” NATO is hosting its 75th anniversary summit here in Washington, D.C., this week. But its members’ eyes are uniformly locked on Ukraine, whose (eventual) membership several will voice support for this week—even as others worry about what a future Trump administration might mean for the alliance and its commitment to the ongoing conflict there. What trajectory is NATO headed on? And what should the alliance be doing to prepare?
• “So Gauche.” Left political movements emerged victorious over populist right-wing movements in two major elections in Europe this past week. In France, the left-wing New Popular Front squeaked out a narrow plurality over President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition and the right-wing National Rally. And in the U.K., a resurgent Labour movement finally ended fourteen years of increasingly unpopular Conservative control. What do these results tell us about political trends in Europe? And can they shed any light on what the United States might experience in its own election later this year?
• “Hindsight is 20/25.” This week, former President Donald Trump tried to distance himself from Project 2025, denying any awareness of the Heritage Foundation-led project that has produced a 900-page book of policy proposals for the potentially returning conservative president—even though several of his former advisers contributed to the project and a number of its proposals seem to be included in the platform that Republican Party leaders adopted this week. How does this agenda compare to what the Trump administration pursued in its first term? And what role is it likely to play if Trump does return to the White House?

For object lessons, Quinta recommended James McBride's latest book, “The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store.” Scott highlighted two great pieces on the continuing relevance of the classic movie “Chinatown,” in light of both its 50th anniversary and the death of its author Robert Towne—and urged director David Fincher to keep at his plans to produce a prequel series for Netflix. Tyler shared the earnest welcome to the NATO summit produced by D.C.'s own wholesome influencer, Tony P. And Eric expressed his passion for the great Finnish pastime of hobby horsing.

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This week, a Scott-less Alan and Quinta sat down with Lawfare Tarbell Fellow Kevin Frazier and law school-bound Associate Editor Hyemin Han to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:

• “I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience.” Unlike Ronald Reagan, Joe Biden’s underwhelming performance at the first (and perhaps only) presidential debate has put his party in a panic about his chances to win the presidential election. Was Biden’s performance as bad as the pundits and betting markets seem to think and, if so, what should he do about it, both with respect to his staying in the race and even his ability to finish out his presidential term?
• “When you’re the president, they let you do it.” After promising an opinion “for the ages,” the Supreme Court, in a 6-3, party-line decision, held that presidents enjoy at least some degree of absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts. Did the opinion, as the dissenting Justices argued, make the president above the law? And what does the opinion mean for the ongoing criminal prosecutions seeking to hold Trump accountable for crimes he allegedly committed while in office?
• "Tell it to my face…ial challenge." The Supreme Court continues its pattern of not squarely addressing difficult legal questions about the Internet. In Moody v. NetChoice, the Court sent back two challenges to state social-media moderation laws to the lower courts, instructing them to examine the laws on an as-applied, rather than facial, basis. What guidance did the Court give to the lower courts on remand, and what questions about the scope of the platforms’ First Amendment protections remain unanswered?

For object lessons, Alan gave himself a post-tenure present in the form of a fancy grill, Kevin recommended a Parisian shark week movie, Quinta suggested an animated science fiction adventure, and Hyemin enjoyed a book about the geopolitics of shame.

To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials.

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