Razib Khan's Unsupervised Learning

Today Razib talks to Kyle Orton. Orton is a freelance researcher, writer, and editor specializing in security and foreign policy, with a particular focus on the Middle East, the Syrian war, regional geopolitics, and terrorist movements including the Islamic State (ISIS), Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). His work also ranges widely across history, including early Christianity, Islam and its relationship with the West, intelligence and espionage, the Reformation, the English Civil War, Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union, the First World War, Communism and the Cold War, and pre-Revolutionary Iran. Orton writes the newsletter It Can Always Get Worse, where he covers contemporary security issues alongside history, religion, intelligence, books, and occasional film reviews. His writing has appeared in publications including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, UnHerd, Newsweek, The Independent, The New Arab, and International Business Times.

Orton and Razib's conversation begins with his post, The Sojourn of Arculf: An Eyewitness to "Early Islamic" Jerusalem - A Frankish bishop sheds some light on a historical dark age. Their discussion continues with probing the possibility that Islam as we know it truly did not exist any recognizable form before the 690s AD, and that the early "Saracens" as their Christian enemies referred to them were in fact a schismatic group of monotheists whose beliefs were adjacent to that of the Jews. Orton also discusses the role of Muhammad, or rather, the lack of the role of Muhammad, in the early years of the Islamic Caliphate. They also explore the possibility that later commentators largely attributed the negative reputation of Islam's first dynastic Caliphate, the Umayyads, to the reality that they would not recognize them as Muslims. Finally, Orton talks about the reality that some of the layers of text within the Koran seem far older than the time of Muhammad, perhaps by a century or so.

Nikolai Yakovenko is back on the podcast because of the Hugging Face hack. Yakovenko is a former professional poker player, and was a research scientist at Google, Twitter and Nvidia. With a decade in computer science, Yakovenko has been at the forefront of the large-language-model revolution that has driven to prominence companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind, and an ecosystem that has birthed hundreds of smaller startups. He is also the founder of DeepNewz, an AI-driven news startup. His latest startup is HuggingNews.

Razib and Yakovenko talk about the implications of OpenAI's inadvertent hack of Hugging Face, and whether he has been too sanguine about the possibility of AI-apocalypse. Though Yakovenko hasn't gone full doomer, he admits that this sort of behavior by AI agents is alarming. That being said, he cautions we need to keep perspective. They also discuss predictions of the coming obsolescence of software engineers…Yakovenko notes that in some ways Dario Amodei was correct to predict the end of software engineering as a profession: very few write code unaided by LLMs today. In a few years, many professions, especially in tech, have transformed, but warnings of mass unemployment have not materialized.

Today, Razib talks to Collin Hogue-Spears, a cybersecurity and artificial intelligence governance expert with more than 20 years of experience in technology, product management, federal compliance and software security. Hogue-Spears is an independent researcher and the author of From Lab to Life: How AI Works in China. His analysis has appeared in publications including The Wall Street Journal and Politico.

Razib and Hogue-Spears first talk abut China's rapid AI development, driven by provincial initiatives and significant investments in infrastructure. Hogue-Spears emphasizes China's focus on practical AI applications, contrasting it with the U.S.'s emphasis on AGI. He predicts China's dominance in AI, particularly in embodied AI, and warns of the potential global impact if China surpasses the U.S. in AI development. The conversation highlights the striking differences between the U.S. and Chinese technological ecosystems.

On this episode, Razib talks to Daniel Di Martino, a Venezuelan-born economist, speaker, and fellow at the Manhattan Institute, where his research centers on immigration policy, including selection, assimilation, and high-skilled migration. Born in 1999 and raised in Venezuela, he witnessed firsthand the impacts of socialism, including hyperinflation and shortages, which prompted him to immigrate to the United States in 2016. He earned a BA in Quantitative Economics from Indiana University and a PhD in Economics from Columbia University. He writes for publications such as City Journal, and USA Today, and serves on the board of advisors for Young America's Foundation while sitting on New Jersey's advisory committee to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights.

First, they talk about the economic and social impact of socialism in Venezuela under Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro. Di Martino describes the country's decline, including hyperinflation, shortages, and corruption, leading to a significant emigration of 30% of the population. Di Martino also discusses the potential for Venezuela's freedom under the Trump administration and his ongoing work on immigration and economic policy. He advocates for a selective, high-skilled immigration policy in the U.S., emphasizing its economic benefits and the need for a moral approach to enforcement. They discuss Di Martino's report, The Fiscal Impact of Immigration, and how Indians in America fit into that picture more precisely.

On this episode of Unsupervised Learning we have a double-feature with Richard Hanania and Steve Sailer. Hanania holds a law degree from the University of Chicago and a PhD in political science from UCLA, and was previously a research fellow at Columbia University's Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. He founded the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology (CSPI) and writes the popular Substack newsletter Richard Hanania's Newsletter, where he covers politics, foreign policy, and social science from a heterodox, broadly libertarian-leaning perspective; his book The Origins of Woke argued that civil rights law, rather than culture alone, drives modern identity politics. His latest book is Kakistocracy: Why Populism Ends in Disaster.

Steve Sailer is an American journalist and blogger, born in 1958 in Los Angeles, who worked in market research before turning to full-time writing in the 1990s, contributing to National Review, The American Conservative, Taki's Magazine, and the webzine VDARE, as well as his long-running personal blog. He is best known for coining the term "human biodiversity" (HBD) and for pioneering a data-heavy style of commentary on race, immigration, IQ, crime, and demographics. This approach made him persona non grata in mainstream outlets. Long relegated to the fringes and often labeled a race-science promoter by critics, he published an anthology, Noticing, in 2024.

In the first hour, Razib and Hanania discuss his career, his use of social media, and his new book. They delve into the rise of populism, defining it as a movement that divides society into righteous masses and corrupt elites. Hanania argues that populism often leads to poor economic performance and authoritarianism. They also touch on the impact of AI on the legal profession, the role of social media in amplifying fringe views, and the challenges of immigration and institutional trust. Hanania expresses a preference for a merit-based immigration system and criticizes the identitarian deference on both the left and right. In the second hour, Razib and Sailer discuss the demographic and economic changes in Southern California, highlighting the impact of Latino immigration and the rise of new immigrant groups from the former Soviet Union. They recount the environmental movement's role in halting development in Beverly Hills and the potential of robot taxis to transform urban commuting. Sailer reflects on the decline of Chicago's Fortune 500 companies and the challenges faced by cities built on water transport. They also discuss the evolution of race and IQ debates and the importance of affirmative action in diverse fields. Likely to the surprise of many Sailer defends affirmative action for black Americans. He also expresses optimism for the future, despite the current political climate.

Today Razib talks to Jason Scharf, a biotech investor and podcaster. A native of San Diego, Scharf is an angel investor and startup advisor focused on the intersection of biology, technology, and business, particularly within TechBio and digital health. He has leadership experience in strategy and market intelligence at major companies like Illumina and Amgen. Scharf now targets investments in the bio-innovation tech stack and care delivery transformation. Additionally, as the host of the Austin Next podcast, he is an advocate for regional innovation ecosystems. Scharf promotes the growth of the Texas Triangle as a premier global hub for biotechnology and frontier tech.

Razib and Scharf discuss the growth and appeal of Austin, Texas, highlighting its booming tech scene and business environment. Scharf discusses why he moved from San Diego during the COVID-19 pandemic. They compare Austin's population growth to other major cities, noting Austin's rapid expansion from 400,000 in 1990 to over a million in 2020. They also talk about the impact of autonomous vehicles, the potential for high-speed rail, and the importance of infrastructure and talent in sustaining Austin's future growth. The conversation touches on the broader Texas Triangle and its economic significance to the American economy today and in the future. They highlight the libertarian and business-friendly environment in Texas, allowing for significant developments like Tesla's Gigafactory (the world's second-largest building), and the planned Terfab. Razib compares Austin and San Antonio, noting the former's rapid growth and the challenges it faces, such as infrastructure and housing. They also touch on the cultural and economic dynamics in Texas, emphasizing the importance of storytelling and narrative in shaping the state's future.

On this episode, Razib talks to streamer and political commentator Destiny (Steven Bonnell II). Destiny first gained prominence in the late 2000s as a professional player and content creator in the video game StarCraft II. Over time, he transitioned from gaming into politics, philosophy, culture, and current events, becoming one of the most influential figures in online debate culture. Known for his fast-paced argumentative style, willingness to engage opponents across the ideological spectrum, and extensive live discussions with politicians, journalists, academics, and fellow creators, Destiny has built a large audience on streaming and video platforms. His content focuses on liberal politics, public policy, social issues, and media criticism, and he has played a notable role in shaping the modern ecosystem of online political commentary and debate.

Razib Khan interviews Destiny about his current position on the center-left, with the rise of the far left and the ascendancy of MAGA. Destiny criticizes Trump's foreign policy as irresponsible and incoherent, citing examples like the Venezuela invasion and the Iran situation. He also discusses the challenges of defining political labels, the impact of social media on political discourse, and the need for better messaging from the Democratic Party. He emphasizes the importance of nuanced discussions on issues like transgender rights and foreign policy. Razib and Destiny touch on cultural war issues, particularly the left's obsession with racial identity and the right's response. They debate the impact of DEI policies versus the DOJ's actions under Trump. Destiny argues that conservatives' disengagement from cultural institutions led to their current dominance by the left. They also discuss the media's role in shaping public perception and the decline of ideological debate due to social media echo chambers. The conversation touches on the MAGA movement's reliance on Trump and the lack of genuine engagement in modern political discourse.

The UK is now in political turmoil, as Keir Starmer has announced his resignation. The next British election is still three years away, but it is hotly anticipated because Labour is going to faceoff against three parties of the Right: the Tories (also known as the Conservaties), Reform UK and Restore Britain. Reform, led by Nigel Farage and stocked with defections from the Tories, has a good chance to win in 2029. On today's episode, Razib talks to Joseph Robertson about the British politican scene. Robertson is Director at Touchpoint Strategy and CPAC Britain, wrote for Epoch Times and has been a long-time conservative political consultant in the UK. Currently, he is aligned with Reform UK.

Razib and Robertson discuss the political and economic challenges facing the UK, particularly since the 2019 election and Brexit. Robertson highlights the shift in political allegiances, with the working class moving from Labour to the Tories, and the subsequent rise of Nigel Farage's Reform UK party. They address issues like economic stagnation, high energy costs, and the impact of net-zero policies. Robertson criticizes the inherited socialist Fabian agenda of Labour and the lack of integration among new immigrants. They also touch on the rise of radical Islam and the need for stronger national identity and sovereignty. The conversation concludes with the announcement of CPAC UK, aiming to unite conservative movements globally.

Today on Unsupervised Learning Razib talks to Zineb Riboua, a research fellow and program manager of Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East. She specializes in Chinese and Russian involvement in the Middle East, the Sahel, and North Africa, great power competition in the region, and Israeli-Arab relations. Riboua's pieces and commentary have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, the National Interest, the Jerusalem Post and Tablet among other outlets. She holds a master's of public policy from the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University. She did her undergraduate studies in France, where she attended French preparatory classes and HEC Paris' Grande Ecole program. Her Substack is Beyond the Ideological.

Razib and Zineb Riboua discuss the concept of Third Worldism (following up on an earlier podcast), its historical context, and its contemporary relevance. Riboua explains that Third Worldism positions the decolonizing world as a historical actor seeking revenge and redistribution from the West, emphasizing the West's role in global South underdevelopment. They explore its manifestations in politics, particularly in the US and Europe, and its influence on foreign policy, highlighting the role of Israel as a central issue. Riboua also touches on the economic and political challenges faced by Iran and the Middle East, and the evolving dynamics of Islam in global politics.