What do search engine optimization, airline schedules and standardized testing have in common? They are all vulnerable to Goodhart’s law, the idea that when a metric becomes a target, it ceases to be a good metric.   In this episode, Michael Stumborg and Timothy Blasius join John to discuss their report, “Goodhart’s Law: Recognizing and Mitigating the Manipulation of Measures in Analysis.”   Michael Stumborg is a Principal Research Scientist with CNA’s ​Strike and Air Warfare Program. Timothy Blasius is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s Strike and Air Warfare Program.   CNA: Goodhart’s Law: Recognizing and Mitigating the Manipulation of Measures in Analysis  Army War College: Lying to Ourselves: Dishonesty in the Army Profession

Rebroadcast: Better Metrics for Better Analyses

CNA’s experts understand today’s complex and dynamic national security environments. On CNA Talks, you’ll find analysis of globe-shaping conflicts, foreign policy and shifting alliances, regional breakdowns, pandemics and other health crises, environmental disasters, homeland security concerns, and the future of strategic competition. Follow CNA Talks to go behind the headlines and learn from data-driven, objective, discussions on the factors shaping today’s national security landscape.

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Over the past 20 years, the People’s Republic of China has invested billions of dollars in African nations. But what impact have these investments had on the continent, and how have things changed in the wake of the dual global shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Tim Ditter joins the show to answer these questions and discuss his research into China’s presence in Africa. Guest Biographies Timothy Ditter is a research scientist in CNA’s China Studies Program. His work covers PLA amphibious warfare, China’s military modernization and expansion, China’s growing nuclear weapons program, and China’s nascent global military presence. Further Reading CNA:  PRC Illicit and Malign Activities in Africa  CNA: PRC Lending in Africa 

China's Economic Activities in Africa

Climate change increases the frequency, severity, and cost of extreme weather events. However, these events are not felt by everyone equally. Existing inequalities in our society exasperate the risks for vulnerable populations. In this episode, Leola Abrahams and Mark Roberts discuss how extreme weather events impact older adults and Native Americans and how protecting our most vulnerable populations protects everyone.  Biographies Leola Abraham is the program manager of CNA’s Center for Vulnerable Population Protection. She focuses on climate change, emergency management, public health, and justice reform. Leola is a senior communications practitioner with over 20 years of professional experience advising federal, state, and local government leaders, nonprofit organizations, and universities to deliver national and global programs and campaigns. Mark Roberts is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Center for Justice Research and Innovation and an expert in domestic safety and security. He is a certified GIS Professional specializing in geospatial and supply chain analyses. His past work for CNA includes developing and facilitating a hybrid workshop for the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine on prioritizing infrastructure resilience along the Gulf of Mexico. Further Reading  CNA: The Impacts of Extreme Weather on Older Adults

The Impact of Extreme Weather on Vulnerable Populations

The Russia‑Ukraine war marks the first large‑scale deployment and use of conventional ballistic and cruise missile technology. Because of this, the theater has become a test bed for missile technology and strategy and has revealed the strengths and weaknesses of contemporary missile forces and doctrines.    In this episode, Fabien Hoffman and Gabriela Rosa Hernandez join the show to discuss how both sides have used conventional weapons during the Ukraine War and the war's impact on strategic stability.  Biographies Fabian Hoffmann is a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project (ONP). His research focuses on missile technology, nuclear strategy, and defense policy. His Ph.D. project examines the implications of conventional long-range strike weapons on nuclear strategy. Gabriela Iveliz Rosa Hernandez is an Associate Research Analyst at the CNA  Russia Studies Program. Her research centers on security orders, deterrence issues, and Russia’s security policy, supplemented by her significant in-country experience living in Russia, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and other countries in the region. Her commentary has been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Time Magazine, and other media. Further Reading CNA:  Strategic Stability and the Ukraine War Implications of Conventional Missile Technologies

Conventional Missiles in the Ukraine War

Military operations in the physical domains all depend on the cyber domain. To ensure the success of traditional naval capabilities, the Navy and Marine Corps must project power in and through cyberspace while defending their systems and assets from adversary cyber capabilities. The side that most effectively sequences and synchronizes cyber effects will have a decisive advantage.     Department of the Navy (DON) Deputy Principal Cyber Advisor Joshua Reiter and CNA’s Ariel Michelman-Ribeiro join the show to discuss the DON Cyber Strategy.  Guest Biographies           Ariel Michelman-Ribeiro is a Principal Research Scientist in the  Cyber, IT Systems, and Networks Program and has been with CNA for 13 years. In addition to directing projects, she is also CNA's  Cyber Research Coordinator.  Joshua Reiter is the Deputy Principal Cyber Advisor (PCA) for the Department of the Navy, In this role, he is responsible for supporting the PCA in advising the Secretary of the Navy, Chief of Naval Operations, and Commandant of the Marine Corps, and implementing the Department of Defense Cyber Strategy within the Department of the Navy.  Further Reading  Department of the Navy Cyber Strategy

Department of the Navy Deputy Principal Cyber Advisor Joshua Reiter on the Department's Cyber Strategy

In an age when the risks of cyberattacks are increasingly clear, the Zero Trust security model, built on the principle of “never trust, always verify,” is the new standard for cyber security. Like many organizations, CNA is working to implement the model throughout our organization.  Rizwan Jan, CNA’s Chief Information Officer, and cybersecurity expert Adam Monsalve join the show to discuss CNA’s journey to implement Zero Trust, how we can use that experience, and how we have leveraged this experience to better serve our clients and sponsors.  Biographies   Rizwan Jan is CNA's Chief Information Officer. He leads our technology and security practices while strengthening information systems. As CIO, he ensures the delivery of all information and technology capabilities required to successfully achieve CNA's mission. Adam Monsalve is a Systems Engineer at CNA’s Center for Enterprise Systems Modernization. He is a cybersecurity expert who specializes in the intersection of uncrewed technologies and cybersecurity for multiple federal government clients. Further Reading NIST: Zero Trust Architecture  CISA: Zero Trust Maturity Model   

Rebroadcast: Better Metrics for Better Analyses

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