South Africa has experienced two months of extremely dry and hot weather —

February and March. The impact of harsh weather conditions on agriculture across

the country is visible through crop failures. The 2023/24 summer grain and oilseed

production is down 21% year-on-year, estimated at 15.8 million tonnes.

We are now at an advanced stage of crop development where there would be

minimal to no improvement, even if it rains. Indeed, if one reflects on the past few

days, we have received some excellent rainfalls in various regions of South Africa,

but this has had minimal benefit on crops.

The soil moisture is enhanced, but this will unlikely improve our summer grain and

oilseed production outlook. However, the grazing veld for the livestock will be

improved somewhat.

The map below illustrates the increased soil moisture levels in the central and

eastern regions of South Africa following the recent rains. The improved moisture will help in the winter crop season, which starts at the end of this month in most regions of the country.

Regarding summer grain and oilseed production prospects, South Africa is in a

better condition than the rest of the southern African region, where there are massive crop failures and countries have to rely on grain imports.

South Africa has sufficient grain for domestic consumption; if the forecast crop

materialises, we hope it does.

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My writing on agricultural economic matters is available on my blog:

https://wandilesihlobo.com/

Podcast production by Lwandiso Gwarubana, Richard Humphries, and Sam Mkokeli Wandile Sihlobo website