Redefining Energy

In episode 143, Gerard, Laurent and Michael have discussed the philosophy of Bill Gates when it comes to the Energy Transition, and the root causes of his flawed thesis. Let see now if this transpires in his main investment vehicle, Breakthrough Energy Ventures (BEV).

Michael Barnard is quite blunt: “To be clear, Gates is still highly resistant to the reality that we have almost all of the solutions we require, and that Breakthrough Energy Ventures is mostly invested in distractions.”

As we are about to celebrate the 10th anniversary of BEV, we dive into its successes and failures. And it is a complex picture. BEV has invested in more than 100 companies which is a feat in itself.  For a 3.5bnUSD portfolio, that’s an average of 40mUSD/ticket.

When you dig into the portfolio, you will get the Good, with promising ventures (such as Antora, Rondo, Boston Metals, Brimstone, TS Conductor, Fervo, Natel, Pachama, Kobold), the bad with ginormous boondoggles (nuclear, carbon, Hydrogen planes, LDES…), and the Ugly, when BEV (but they are not alone) manage to offload failed ventures via SPACs (Heliogen, QuantumScape, ESS)  or Public Money (Carbon Engineering).  

So, Breakthrough or Break down? Glass half full or half empty?  A lot of Silicon Valley billionaires have emulated BEV, with absurd amount of money chasing impossible or totally uneconomic ventures. To name a few, Sam Altman, Khosla Ventures, Patrick Collinson (CEO Stripe) Bezos, Benioff. So, Bill is definitely not alone. 

And BEV, with a string of smart choices, is probably the least bad, or best of them all.  

Michael Barnard unleashed in Cleantechnica https://cleantechnica.com/2024/07/04/breakthrough-energy-ventures-has-bad-investment-theses-therefore-bad-investments/

Bill Gates is sucking a lot of oxygen in the Energy Transition. Is he a force for good, or a nuisance? What is his thesis and where does it come from? And is the thesis still valid in 2024 or obsolete?

In this episode, we will not analyse Breakthrough Energy Ventures, his VC fund celebrating its 10th anniversary. That will be the topic of Episode 144, next week.

Laurent, Gerard and Michael are going to analyse Bill Gates fascination for Vaclav Smil and David MacKay.  We will dissect how their theories have been consequential in the shaping of Bill Gates’ vision.
We will delve into Smil’s errors, namely the Primary Energy Fallacy, the refusal to consider wind, solar and batteries as viable alternatives and the impact they have had on Bill Gates thinking, and - probably worse - investments.
We will discuss how the Oil Industry has found an ally (probably unwilling, but certainly powerful) in their quest for immobility. Elon Musk might be controversial, but at least he has made the journey in practice, not in theory.
A very heated discussion. And we are not going to make friends here. That’s OK. Country above Party. 

Bill Gates on Smil
https://www.gatesnotes.com/Numbers-Dont-Lie  

This week, it is a solo by Gerard Reid.

This is the audio of its remarkable presentation at EcoSummit Berlin in June 2024. The topic is “Batteries vs Hydrogen”

Link to the YouTube   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAbr4byi414

Texas and California have witnessed a crazy growth in Solar and Batteries in recent years. In 2024 California has 24GW of Solar and 9GW of batteries on its grid; Texas has grown even faster with 31GW of Solar and 10GW of batteries.

When it comes to the Energy Transition, you can make the following analogy: public policies are the land and financial markets are the rain. But the seeds are battle-hardened entrepreneurs. Laurent and Gerard love to invite such heroes of the development of Renewables. They don’t build pipelines of projects. They built projects. 

One of those American Heroes is Sheldon Kimber, CEO of Intersect Power. In the past 8 years, Intersect has delivered 4GW of Solar and 2.5GWh of batteries. By focusing on a few huge projects, by developing a unique expertise in both Texas and California. Along the way, the Company has closed $5B in project financings and raised nearly $1B in corporate equity (TPG, CAI, Trilantic) to support the buildout of the Base Portfolio and additional growth projects. But Sheldon’s success is also linked to the development of a secure and efficient supply chain.

The conversation is so rich that we didn’t have time to delve into his plan to develop e-fuels for Taylor Swift private jet.  
And, as Daniel said: “Stumpf ist Trumpf”.  

We thank DLA Piper for supporting the show

After a crazy Intersolar in Munich which welcomed more than 120,000 visitors, the pace of Solar deployment in Europe is going exponentially.

Gerard and Laurent bring in Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of Solar Power Europe, to discuss the development of Solar, and through the new report “Mission Solar 2040”, how we are on the cusp of a Flexibility Revolution.

The Report is available here: https://www.solarpowereurope.org/insights/thematic-reports/mission-solar-2040-1  

Glencore’s CEO Gary Nagle has once described ESG as “some person in the basement in office number 27 engaged in a box-ticking exercise.” And a lot of fossil fuel companies – while being less explicit – share the same opinion on ESG… and have voiced their hostility indirectly through complicit media outlets.
The ESG movement is facing a significant backlash. On the one hand there has been too much greenwashing, on the other hand, ESG has become a political punching ball in certain US States dependent on the fossil fuel industry. Some European Oil companies want to list in NY to get a better valuation and are complaining about too much sustainability scrutiny. And Larry Fink, Blackrock CEO, went in the last four years from hero to zero of the ESG wave.
Going back a few years a lot of the ESG popularity was linked to an overweighting of Tech and Luxury stocks which performed wonderfully, a trend partially reversed by the war in Ukraine and the rise of interest rates. In 2024, we have seen outflows in ESG labelled funds from a peak three years ago. Still, they represent, according to the FT, a 7tnUSD pot of money, so it is a big industry.

We’re not experts… but a system that rates ExxonMobil higher than Tesla on ESG raises eyebrows.

To add insult to injury, there is a multiplication of standards and regulations (CSRD, SFDR) which make the whole ESG universe very confusing. There are byzantine debates about passive vs active management. There are endless conversations about the adequacy of “engagement” and if shareholders should behave as activists. And finally, there is a clear transatlantic drift when it comes to that issue.

We are totally lost! 

To try to understand better if ESG is dead, or if it will have to reinvent itself, we bring in Jean Jacques Barberis Deputy CEO and Head of Institutional and Corporate Clients Division & ESG at Amundi. Amundi is EU’s largest EU Asset Manager and a leader in Green investing. Jean-Jacques Barbéris is currently responsible for the global development of the institutional business at Amundi. With Jean Jacques, Laurent and Gerard take no prisoners and call a spade a spade… and then realise that Paris-aligned targets are for real, that “engagement” with companies deliver results, and that a proper investment strategy starts to yield results.

We thank DLA Piper for supporting the show.

We bring in Nick Wayth, CEO of Energy Institute (EI), for the release of the 73rd Edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy. The Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy™ analyses data on world energy markets from the prior year.
Previously produced by bp, the Review has been providing timely, comprehensive and objective data to the energy community since 1952. The Strategic Review is now a collaboration between the EI, KPMG, Kearney and Heriot University. Five key stories emerge from the 2023 data:

1. Record global energy consumption, with coal and oil pushing fossil fuels and their emissions to record levels
2. Solar and wind push global renewable electricity generation to another record level
3. Ongoing Ukraine conflict cements gas rebalancing in Europe  
4. Dependence on fossil fuels in major advanced economies is likely to have peaked
5. Growth economies struggle to curb fossil fuel growth, but renewables accelerate in China   

Although we disagree on the message and question the concept of Primary Energy (super misleading), we salute the consistency and comprehensiveness of that Report. Keep them coming.

https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review

UK is at the nexus of the subsea interconnector’s new economy. Great Britain is connected to Continental Europe by 8 interconnectors representing up to 15% of its power consumption.

Subsea cables are now a growing industry because of the benefits they bring to the grids, such as resiliency, capacity, lower prices, and renewable energy balancing. Alongside batteries and pumped Hydro, interconnectors are the best flexible green infrastructure currently available on our road to net-zero.

How has the technology evolved over the recent years? What are the economics in terms of CAPEX and OPEX? What are the revenue models? Is there a role for infrastructure investor? What are the technological challenges? How are the permitting and regulatory frameworks? How far and how deep will we go in the development of interconnectors, as we start hearing about transcontinental projects. 

To answer all those questions, we have invited Rebecca Sedler, aka “The Mother of Interconnectors” (reference to Games of Throne). After a long career at E.ON and EDF, Rebecca is Managing Director of the Interconnectors business for UK National Grid. We will start by the Viking Link, her more recent achievement, linking GB to Denmark with a 750km cable and only 3.7% loss. Finally, we will talk about the bright future of subsea interconnectors.

“We are going to America”  www.nato-l.org 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/26/climate/green-energy-wars-undersea-cables-intl?cid=ios_app


We thank Amundi for supporting our show. EU Largest Asset Manager and leader in Green investing.

Laurent interviews Georgios Stassis, PPC’S CEO, during Eurelectric Power Summit 24.

PPC, the Greek Utility, is a remarkable turnaround story: from a soviet-style dinosaur a few years ago, PPC has become a thriving forward-looking profitable modern Utility.
With Georgios, we discuss the investment in renewables, the phase out of lignite, digitisation, the investment in new segments (Datacenters, E Mobility, Demand Response…) and share an overview of regional integration with interconnectors and the successful acquisition of Enel Romania.

And, to crown it all, a Quiz: Eurelectric or AC/DC?

In April, we did Ep129 Minutes about China and announced the interview with a real expert. Here it is.
With David Fishman, an American based in Shanghai, we dig deep into China’s Energy Transition. We try to reconcile the rise of renewables and the rise of coal use. We try to decipher what is decided locally and nationally. We investigate what is the result of command-and-control measures vs market forces. We cover wind, solar, batteries, EVs. Our goal is not to give good points or bad points, our mission is to share with our listeners the fascinating but complex picture of what is happening in China. And we debunk a lot of the cliches that we read in the Western media.
To paraphrase Churchill: “A riddle wrapped in mystery inside an enigma”.
As the US and the EU are becoming more and more wary and protectionist in relation to China’s progresses in clean technologies, we try to stay neutral when it comes to subsidies, “overcapacity” and real advances made by China Inc.
Beyond those cliches, we talk about human capital and the fundamental concern about energy security which are powerful drivers boosting the Chinese energy transition. In David’s opinion, China is turning the corner on Coal and Fuels, and we might already have seen peak emissions. And we like that!  

For institutions which would like to partner with our show, please ask for our media kit.  

We thank Amundi for suppiorting our show. 

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David Fishman is an economic consultant at the Lantau Group specializing in the Chinese power sector. His work includes regulatory and commercial intelligence for Chinese nuclear power, solar, wind, and distributed energy markets. His specific experience includes Chinese power market and policy intelligence and forecasting, solar and wind pricing forecasts, renewable asset transactional due diligence, China business matchmaking, and green power procurement planning and execution for multinationals with factories in China.   Check David Fishman on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/china-electricity-2023-statistics-summary-david-fishman-mknic?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&utm_campaign=share_via