Transmission

Batteries earn volatile revenues, but lenders want fixed ones. Financial swaps that trade a fixed payment for floating battery revenue, from day-ahead spreads to full revenue indices, are how that gap is starting to close.

Chris Kennedy, Founder & Managing Director at Miranda Energy, joins Ed Porter in Berlin to explain how battery swaps actually work, where basis risk hides, and why he treats power volatility as an asset class in its own right.

They cover:

- Why basis risk is the most misunderstood part of day-ahead TB swaps, and how round-trip efficiency, degradation schedules, payout caps and availability adjustments bring the swap closer to what the asset really earns.

- How day-ahead swaps are evolving into total revenue swaps benchmarked to broader battery revenue indices like Modo Energy's, and why capturing more of the revenue stack cuts basis risk further.

- Why fixed-for-floating battery swaps borrow the ISDA playbook from interest rate markets, and how a TB swap let a German solar portfolio hedge the duck curve without building a battery.

- Why Chris sees volatility, not the depreciating battery, as the asset to own, and how ten-year TB swaps, credit-light offtakes for BESS SPVs and 245MW of fixed offtakes across Germany, Poland and Hungary set Amaranth Energy apart from the big trading houses.

- Chris's contrarian view: the market puts too much weight on backwardation in the TB forward curve, when spreads may prove directionally persistent as solar continues to outpace flexibility.

Want to go deeper on battery revenue swaps and indices? Sign up for free to Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, at modoenergy.com

Exploring a battery revenue swap? Talk to our team about using Modo Energy indices in your contracts.

Chapters:

0:00 Intro

1:19 Basis Risk in Day-Ahead Battery Swaps

3:42 Unlimited Liability, Payout Caps and Availability

6:54 Total Revenue Swaps and Battery Revenue Indices

8:21 Battery Offtakes: Profit Shares, Floors and Tolls

9:55 Fixed-for-Floating Swaps and ISDA

11:21 German Solar, Negative Rates and the Duck Curve

13:23 Virtual Battery Hedge for Solar Portfolios

16:48 Three Use Cases for TB Swaps

17:27 Power Volatility as an Asset Class

19:57 Prop Shops vs Trading Houses

22:16 Credit-Light Offtakes for BESS SPVs

23:52 Options, Volga and Exotic Battery Hedges

26:22 Poland, Hungary and Emerging BESS Markets

29:48 Spain and Negative Power Prices

31:44 The Ideal Swap Counterparty

33:31 Contrarian View

Batteries earn volatile revenues, but lenders want fixed ones. Financial swaps that trade a fixed payment for floating battery revenue, from day-ahead spreads to full revenue indices, are how that gap is starting to close.

Chris Kennedy, Founder & Managing Director at Miranda Energy, joins Ed Porter in Berlin to explain how battery swaps actually work, where basis risk hides, and why he treats power volatility as an asset class in its own right.

They cover:

- Why basis risk is the most misunderstood part of day-ahead TB swaps, and how round-trip efficiency, degradation schedules, payout caps and availability adjustments bring the swap closer to what the asset really earns.

- How day-ahead swaps are evolving into total revenue swaps benchmarked to broader battery revenue indices like Modo Energy's, and why capturing more of the revenue stack cuts basis risk further.

- Why fixed-for-floating battery swaps borrow the ISDA playbook from interest rate markets, and how a TB swap let a German solar portfolio hedge the duck curve without building a battery.

- Why Chris sees volatility, not the depreciating battery, as the asset to own, and how ten-year TB swaps, credit-light offtakes for BESS SPVs and 245MW of fixed offtakes across Germany, Poland and Hungary set Amaranth Energy apart from the big trading houses.

- Chris's contrarian view: the market puts too much weight on backwardation in the TB forward curve, when spreads may prove directionally persistent as solar continues to outpace flexibility.

Want to go deeper on battery revenue swaps and indices? Sign up for free to Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, at modoenergy.com

Exploring a battery revenue swap? Talk to our team about using Modo Energy indices in your contracts.

Chapters:

0:00 Intro

1:19 Basis Risk in Day-Ahead Battery Swaps

3:42 Unlimited Liability, Payout Caps and Availability

6:54 Total Revenue Swaps and Battery Revenue Indices

8:21 Battery Offtakes: Profit Shares, Floors and Tolls

9:55 Fixed-for-Floating Swaps and ISDA

11:21 German Solar, Negative Rates and the Duck Curve

13:23 Virtual Battery Hedge for Solar Portfolios

16:48 Three Use Cases for TB Swaps

17:27 Power Volatility as an Asset Class

19:57 Prop Shops vs Trading Houses

22:16 Credit-Light Offtakes for BESS SPVs

23:52 Options, Volga and Exotic Battery Hedges

26:22 Poland, Hungary and Emerging BESS Markets

29:48 Spain and Negative Power Prices

31:44 The Ideal Swap Counterparty

33:31 Contrarian View

Poland's battery storage market is skipping the pilot phase, with its first projects starting at 200MW, a size it took Germany five years to reach. And because of the way Poland runs its grid, two identical batteries in different locations can earn very different amounts. With over 2GW of batteries expected on the grid by 2028, the market is about to change fast.

Ed Porter is joined by Aleksandra Radwańska, Country Lead Poland at Entrix, and Jan Kłoczko at Entrix, to unpack what it takes to optimise batteries in a market scaling this fast.

They cover:

• How two identical batteries in different parts of Poland can earn very different amounts, and why each needs its own scorecard.
• Why getting a new battery approved to support Poland's grid can take up to two years, while everyone is still learning the rules.
• How over 2GW of batteries expected by 2028, in a country that peaks at around 25GW, will change the way power is traded in Poland.
• What battery owners are choosing between: guaranteed-income deals that help secure loans, or betting on the market.
• Why Poland's single national electricity price is coming under strain as the grid gets more congested.

Want to see how battery assets in Poland are performing? Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, is built for exactly these questions.

CHAPTERS

0:00 Poland's battery storage market: straight to 200MW

1:17 Central dispatch and location-based battery revenues

4:11 Credible battery optimisers vs good pitch decks

6:46 Benchmarking optimiser performance per asset

9:08 Ancillary services prequalification in Poland

12:47 Starting with 100-200MW batteries: no sandbox

13:19 Intraday liquidity and the TSO balancing crackdown

15:27 Wholesale trading patterns and Poland's duck curve

18:44 Over 2GW of batteries by 2028

20:11 Route to market: floors, tolls and merchant

24:01 Flexible and asymmetric grid connections

27:29 Lessons from bringing large batteries online

28:48 Contrarian view: one national price, a constrained grid

30:47 Contrarian view: collaboration over complaint

Poland's battery storage market is skipping the pilot phase, with its first projects starting at 200MW, a size it took Germany five years to reach. And because of the way Poland runs its grid, two identical batteries in different locations can earn very different amounts. With over 2GW of batteries expected on the grid by 2028, the market is about to change fast.

Ed Porter is joined by Aleksandra Radwańska, Country Lead Poland at Entrix, and Jan Kłoczko at Entrix, to unpack what it takes to optimise batteries in a market scaling this fast.

They cover:

• How two identical batteries in different parts of Poland can earn very different amounts, and why each needs its own scorecard.
• Why getting a new battery approved to support Poland's grid can take up to two years, while everyone is still learning the rules.
• How over 2GW of batteries expected by 2028, in a country that peaks at around 25GW, will change the way power is traded in Poland.
• What battery owners are choosing between: guaranteed-income deals that help secure loans, or betting on the market.
• Why Poland's single national electricity price is coming under strain as the grid gets more congested.

Want to see how battery assets in Poland are performing? Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, is built for exactly these questions.

CHAPTERS

0:00 Poland's battery storage market: straight to 200MW

1:17 Central dispatch and location-based battery revenues

4:11 Credible battery optimisers vs good pitch decks

6:46 Benchmarking optimiser performance per asset

9:08 Ancillary services prequalification in Poland

12:47 Starting with 100-200MW batteries: no sandbox

13:19 Intraday liquidity and the TSO balancing crackdown

15:27 Wholesale trading patterns and Poland's duck curve

18:44 Over 2GW of batteries by 2028

20:11 Route to market: floors, tolls and merchant

24:01 Flexible and asymmetric grid connections

27:29 Lessons from bringing large batteries online

28:48 Contrarian view: one national price, a constrained grid

30:47 Contrarian view: collaboration over complaint

As the electrification of heat increases and technologies like heat pump adoption grows, it's tempting to assume the gas network can simply be wound down street by street, in line with falling demand. But it’s not as simple as this: network topology, not customer count, decides when decommissioning is actually viable, and the UK gas network is nowhere close to that point today.

Sam Wilson, Director of Energy System Operations at Cadent, joins the podcast to explain the engineering reality behind that constraint — and how things like pressure control, storage, and gas injection all factor into it.

They cover:

• Why network topology, not customer count, decides when decommissioning is actually viable
• How gas goes from completely odourless at transmission pressure to detectable on your street.
• What it takes to step pressure down from around 90 bar in the transmission system, through off-takes and above ground installations, to roughly 30 millibars at a domestic appliance.
• How line packing turns the pipe network itself into short-duration storage, with operators raising or lowering in-pipe pressure to absorb daily demand swings.
• What's actually limiting how much biomethane and hydrogen can go into the network today, and why hydrogen can be blended in without any changes needed to downstream appliances.

Want to know how heat electrification could reshape power demand in GB? Ask Ko - Modo Energy’s AI energy analyst - sign up for free here

Transcript available here

You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:09 What people get wrong about the gas network.

3:03 From gas field to home boiler: the full journey

4:33 UK's four gas distribution networks explained

5:15 Transmission pressure: 90 bar and above

6:25 Line packing - storing gas inside the pipes

7:55 Industrial vs domestic gas pressure needs

12:34 Replacing 100-year-old cast iron gas pipes

13:56 Biomethane in the gas network

17:15 Hydrogen blending: how much the network can take

21:22 Getting hydrogen to industrial gas users

23:18 Electrification vs the gas network's engineering reality

24:26 What happens when homes remove their gas connection

25:46 Why decommissioning the gas network isn't linear

31:57 Sam Wilson's contrarian take on the energy transition

Music licensed via Artlist.

🔔 Subscribe for more energy market analysis: / @modoenergy

🔗 Follow Modo Energy:

→ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/modo-energy

→ Twitter/X: x.com/modoenergy

As the electrification of heat increases and technologies like heat pump adoption grows, it's tempting to assume the gas network can simply be wound down street by street, in line with falling demand. But it’s not as simple as this: network topology, not customer count, decides when decommissioning is actually viable, and the UK gas network is nowhere close to that point today.

Sam Wilson, Director of Energy System Operations at Cadent, joins the podcast to explain the engineering reality behind that constraint — and how things like pressure control, storage, and gas injection all factor into it.

They cover:

• Why network topology, not customer count, decides when decommissioning is actually viable
• How gas goes from completely odourless at transmission pressure to detectable on your street.
• What it takes to step pressure down from around 90 bar in the transmission system, through off-takes and above ground installations, to roughly 30 millibars at a domestic appliance.
• How line packing turns the pipe network itself into short-duration storage, with operators raising or lowering in-pipe pressure to absorb daily demand swings.
• What's actually limiting how much biomethane and hydrogen can go into the network today, and why hydrogen can be blended in without any changes needed to downstream appliances.

Want to know how heat electrification could reshape power demand in GB? Ask Ko - Modo Energy’s AI energy analyst - sign up for free here

Transcript available here

You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:09 What people get wrong about the gas network.

3:03 From gas field to home boiler: the full journey

4:33 UK's four gas distribution networks explained

5:15 Transmission pressure: 90 bar and above

6:25 Line packing - storing gas inside the pipes

7:55 Industrial vs domestic gas pressure needs

12:34 Replacing 100-year-old cast iron gas pipes

13:56 Biomethane in the gas network

17:15 Hydrogen blending: how much the network can take

21:22 Getting hydrogen to industrial gas users

23:18 Electrification vs the gas network's engineering reality

24:26 What happens when homes remove their gas connection

25:46 Why decommissioning the gas network isn't linear

31:57 Sam Wilson's contrarian take on the energy transition

Music licensed via Artlist.

🔔 Subscribe for more energy market analysis: / @modoenergy

🔗 Follow Modo Energy:

→ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/modo-energy

→ Twitter/X: x.com/modoenergy

The grid is swapping spinning turbines for grid forming inverters, and something is getting lost in the trade. A turbine could always throw 5 times its normal output to clear a fault, for free, using nothing but physics. Inverters can only manage around 1.5 times theirs. So if renewables are going to take over, where does that missing strength come from instead?

Ben Braun is Chief Engineer at Fluence, where he's spent his career working on power electronics - from batteries to the grid. In this episode, he breaks down grid forming vs grid following inverters for everyone without an electrical engineering degree.

They cover:

- Why "grid forming is slower" than grid following - and why that slower response is actually what makes it more stable in a fault.

- Why NESO in GB and AEMO in Australia are chasing completely different things from grid forming batteries.

- Why grid inertia disappears as spinning turbines retire, and how a sudden burst of power from a battery can fake it.

- Why volatile AI training loads are turning data centres into miniature grids of their own, and how batteries are used to stop that volatility ever reaching the wider network.

- Why Ben's biggest concern isn't too little fault current on the grid, but too much of it - and why that could force a wave of grid upgrades most people haven't priced in

Want to see which grids are paying for inertia and fault current today, or where the next stability tenders are opening? Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, is built for exactly these questions. Free sign up: https://modoenergy.com/product/ko?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=ben_braun&utm_content=ko_signup

📄 Related article: [companion article link]

―――――――――――――――

⏱ CHAPTERS

―――――――――――――――

• 00:00 – Why the Grid Needs More Than Power Flow
• 01:31 – Grid Forming Inverters: Common Misconceptions
• 04:51 – Grid Forming vs Grid Following Speed Explained
• 07:16 – Bathtub Analogy for Grid Forming Batteries
• 11:44 – NESO Stability Pathfinder and Global Grid Forming Numbers
• 14:11 – AEMO's System Strength Charge Explained
• 16:28 – Inertia and Short Circuit Level for Beginners
• 17:10 – Grid Inertia Explained With Lorries and Cyclists
• 21:44 – How Batteries Replicate Grid Inertia
• 23:03 – Fault Current Basics: Fuses and Circuit Breakers
• 26:16 – Fault Current Math and Retiring Turbines
• 28:52 – Voltage Stiffness and System Strength
• 39:07 – Reactive Power Explained With a Circus Tent
• 42:23 – Black Start and Grid Restoration Explained
• 46:57 – Grid Forming Inverters for Data Centres
• 53:30 – Contrarian View: Too Much Fault Current
• 61:18 – Grid Upgrades for High Fault Current Levels

You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Music licensed via Artlist.

🔔 Subscribe for more energy market analysis: / @modoenergy

🔗 Follow Modo Energy:

→ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/modo-energy

→ Twitter/X: x.com/modoenergy

The grid is swapping spinning turbines for grid forming inverters, and something is getting lost in the trade. A turbine could always throw 5 times its normal output to clear a fault, for free, using nothing but physics. Inverters can only manage around 1.5 times theirs. So if renewables are going to take over, where does that missing strength come from instead?

Ben Braun is Chief Engineer at Fluence, where he's spent his career working on power electronics - from batteries to the grid. In this episode, he breaks down grid forming vs grid following inverters for everyone without an electrical engineering degree.

They cover:

- Why "grid forming is slower" than grid following - and why that slower response is actually what makes it more stable in a fault.

- Why NESO in GB and AEMO in Australia are chasing completely different things from grid forming batteries.

- Why grid inertia disappears as spinning turbines retire, and how a sudden burst of power from a battery can fake it.

- Why volatile AI training loads are turning data centres into miniature grids of their own, and how batteries are used to stop that volatility ever reaching the wider network.

- Why Ben's biggest concern isn't too little fault current on the grid, but too much of it - and why that could force a wave of grid upgrades most people haven't priced in

Want to see which grids are paying for inertia and fault current today, or where the next stability tenders are opening? Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, is built for exactly these questions. Free sign up: https://modoenergy.com/product/ko?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=ben_braun&utm_content=ko_signup

📄 Related article: [companion article link]

―――――――――――――――

⏱ CHAPTERS

―――――――――――――――

• 00:00 – Why the Grid Needs More Than Power Flow
• 01:31 – Grid Forming Inverters: Common Misconceptions
• 04:51 – Grid Forming vs Grid Following Speed Explained
• 07:16 – Bathtub Analogy for Grid Forming Batteries
• 11:44 – NESO Stability Pathfinder and Global Grid Forming Numbers
• 14:11 – AEMO's System Strength Charge Explained
• 16:28 – Inertia and Short Circuit Level for Beginners
• 17:10 – Grid Inertia Explained With Lorries and Cyclists
• 21:44 – How Batteries Replicate Grid Inertia
• 23:03 – Fault Current Basics: Fuses and Circuit Breakers
• 26:16 – Fault Current Math and Retiring Turbines
• 28:52 – Voltage Stiffness and System Strength
• 39:07 – Reactive Power Explained With a Circus Tent
• 42:23 – Black Start and Grid Restoration Explained
• 46:57 – Grid Forming Inverters for Data Centres
• 53:30 – Contrarian View: Too Much Fault Current
• 61:18 – Grid Upgrades for High Fault Current Levels

You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Music licensed via Artlist.

🔔 Subscribe for more energy market analysis: / @modoenergy

🔗 Follow Modo Energy:

→ LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/modo-energy

→ Twitter/X: x.com/modoenergy

Joe McDonald says close to 30% of a business power bill can go to trading desks, balancing costs and wholesale market fees most customers never see. Behind suppliers can sit five or six more intermediaries, each taking a cut before the energy ever arrives. Is that a market working as designed, or one taking more than it should?

Joe is Founder & CEO of Tem Energy, and has spent over a decade inside the middle of the energy market, watching where the money actually goes on its way to the meter. He's now building the AI infrastructure to strip those middlemen out of the chain, with Tem already transacting over £1 billion a year across thousands of UK businesses, backed by a fresh Series B to fund expansion into Texas and Australia.

They cover:

• Why up to 30% of a business energy bill can go to trading desks, balancing costs and wholesale fees layered behind the supplier.
• How forward market contracts fix energy prices for months or years and why "shape matching" between generators and buyers creates a shadow market worth billions.
• The P442 grid charging exemption, and why a change this small took two years to push through.
• Why Joe believes Tem's AI agents could remove around 90% of labor costs in energy transactions, and why he sees that trade-off as necessary.
• Tem Energy's plan after its Series B - expanding into Texas and Australia before Europe and the case for energy AI becoming the UK's next trillion-dollar industry.

Want to dig deeper into where that 30% actually goes, or how forward contracts are priced? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, for free sign up also gets you trial access to Modo Energy's research.

You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:24 The Real Cost Layers Behind A Business Energy Bill

3:17 The Mechanics Of Forward Energy Contracts

5:25 Shape Matching Explained

6:35 The Shadow Market Behind The Grid

11:12 Pricing And Settling Energy Trades With AI

26:46 The P442 Grid Charging Exemption

36:29 The Slow Pace Of Energy Market Regulation

37:37 The Same Problem Across Global Energy Markets

38:36 Cutting Utility Operating Costs With AI

39:22 Comparing This Model To Octopus And Kraken

40:40 Joe McDonald's Contrarian View On Energy Markets

41:34 Cutting 90% Of Energy Labor Costs With AI

Joe McDonald says close to 30% of a business power bill can go to trading desks, balancing costs and wholesale market fees most customers never see. Behind suppliers can sit five or six more intermediaries, each taking a cut before the energy ever arrives. Is that a market working as designed, or one taking more than it should?

Joe is Founder & CEO of Tem Energy, and has spent over a decade inside the middle of the energy market, watching where the money actually goes on its way to the meter. He's now building the AI infrastructure to strip those middlemen out of the chain, with Tem already transacting over £1 billion a year across thousands of UK businesses, backed by a fresh Series B to fund expansion into Texas and Australia.

They cover:

• Why up to 30% of a business energy bill can go to trading desks, balancing costs and wholesale fees layered behind the supplier.
• How forward market contracts fix energy prices for months or years and why "shape matching" between generators and buyers creates a shadow market worth billions.
• The P442 grid charging exemption, and why a change this small took two years to push through.
• Why Joe believes Tem's AI agents could remove around 90% of labor costs in energy transactions, and why he sees that trade-off as necessary.
• Tem Energy's plan after its Series B - expanding into Texas and Australia before Europe and the case for energy AI becoming the UK's next trillion-dollar industry.

Want to dig deeper into where that 30% actually goes, or how forward contracts are priced? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, for free sign up also gets you trial access to Modo Energy's research.

You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction

1:24 The Real Cost Layers Behind A Business Energy Bill

3:17 The Mechanics Of Forward Energy Contracts

5:25 Shape Matching Explained

6:35 The Shadow Market Behind The Grid

11:12 Pricing And Settling Energy Trades With AI

26:46 The P442 Grid Charging Exemption

36:29 The Slow Pace Of Energy Market Regulation

37:37 The Same Problem Across Global Energy Markets

38:36 Cutting Utility Operating Costs With AI

39:22 Comparing This Model To Octopus And Kraken

40:40 Joe McDonald's Contrarian View On Energy Markets

41:34 Cutting 90% Of Energy Labor Costs With AI