Reformasi Dispatch

President Prabowo reacts to the US-Israel invasion of Iran -- offer to mediate, assembles luminaries including former presidents, and then sets 'ready alert' (siaga satu) status for the military.  An array of groups and figures speak out against Prabowo's alignment with the US in the Board of Peace and concessions in the Recriprocal Trade Agreement.  Likelihood of a prolonged conflict in Iran point to economic impacts for Indonesia.  A court acquits Delpedro Marhaen, an activist apprehended last August for demonstrations.  And the government is restricting social media accounts for minors under age 16.

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This week in Indonesia - Erin & Kevin examine Indonesia's reciprocal trade agreement (ART) with the US; a slander case brewing against the popular satirist Pandji Pragiwaksono; and, further afield, Thailand's election and the growing popularity in the Philippines of VP Sarah Duterte.

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Electoral changes and a possible move to amend the Constitution are topics that Iqbal Kholidin of the Center for Democracy (Perludem) discusses in this week's edition of the Reformasi Dispatch podcast on Indonesian politics.  Erin and Kevin also discuss the stock market sell-off, the abrupt resignation of the chief financial regulator Mahendra Siregar, and the president's cancellation of Jardine Matheson's Martabe gold mine in North Sumatra.  Also: a tragic youth suicide case has gripped the nation's attention.

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To examine Thailand's upcoming election, Uday Bakhshi of Apac Assistance joins the Reformasi Dispatch podcast and outlines the players, prospects and scenarios -- including the 8 February referendum on yet another Constitution.  Also: Myanmar conducts a sham election; Indonesia joins Trump's Board of Peace -- generating backlash; rumors abound of an imminent change in the foreign affairs portfolio; and the tragedy of the collapse of a mountainside in Cisarua.

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Kevin and Erin talk to former  US diplomat  Brandon Possin on Trump's invasion of Venezuela and what to expect of the administration. Also: Stand up comic and government critic Pandji Pragiwaksono could face a blasphemy charge for his Netflix special Mens Rea after he was reported by a youth group. And Thomas Djiwandono, the President's nephew is named as a candidate for Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, a move that shows administration's reach on monetary policy.

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Joining the pod is Isanksarsyah Bakri, senior advisor to the Aceh governor, for a discussion of the livelihoods crisis facing the province after the 23 November Senyar Cyclone devastated half of Aceh's districts.  Also: Erin and Kevin look at the Information Ministry's ban of the Grok AI nudify function on Elon Musk's X; Prabowo's travel plans; and Megawati's emphatic denunciation of Trump's neo-colonial folly.  And a spelling correction for last week's blurb: our interview guest was Monica Wihardja (not Suhardja).

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Burhanuddin Muhtadi of the polling firm Indikator politik, together with Monica Wihardja of ISEAS, join the pod to discuss their empirical analysis of disinformation mesaging in the 2024 Presidential contest. Spoiler: Beware of TikTok. Pak Burhan also comments on Presidential support ratings. Also; Kevin and Erin discuss disaster relief, a regional head election bill and KPK scrutiny of Ridwan Kamil.

You can read Burhanuddin and Monica's research here: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/TRS10_25.pdf

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Dr Chris Chaplin joins the pod to discuss the latest in politics, and the background to his new analytical endeavor, www.cearta.co.  Also: police appointments, electoral law revisions and international cyclone aid.

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Kevin and Erin talk with researcher Garda Ramadhito on Prabowo's Palestine peace-keeping plans and political Islam in his term. Also, the political and environmental reckoning in Sumatra's devastating flooding and the KPK takes a look at its own handling of a case involving Bobby Nasution.

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A week of superlatives for Indonesia - the tragic Senyar cyclone is the largest on record to hit Indonesia; a tax bribery case is affecting a key owner of the most profitable bank, BCA; a leadership struggle has incapacitated the largest Islamic organization, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), at a time when Indonesia prepares for its largest-ever deployment of peacekeepers to Gaza; and Danantara seeks a role in a long-awaited potential GoTo-Grab merger that would constitute an on-demand behemoth with 90% market share.  Otherwise, no drama.

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