Medan Mayor Bobby Nasution is seeking to run for governor of Indonesia's fourth-largest province and his father-in-law Joko Widodo appears keen to help -- Reformasi Dispatch examines why.  Also: With Lawrence Wong designated as Singapore's next prime minister, the city-state is embarking on a new era - but it might still bear close resemblance to the old...  Finally, Erin and Kevin discuss the twin impacts of a higher oil price and a weaker exchange rate on the fiscal outlook and fuel prices.

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Amid electoral disputes unfolding in the Constitutional Court, President-Elect Prabowo Subianto abruptly appeared in Beijing, hosted by Xi Jinping.  Kevin and Erin Cook break down the significance and note that Prabowo sought to convey balance by also visiting Tokyo and Kuala Lumpur.  Also: how the new Jakarta Law exceeds expectations by making fewer changes than anticipated, and a check on developments in another Constitutional Court, in Bangkok.

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Indonesia's national election vote‑count concluded relatively smoothly, with the Widodo family's PSI falling well short of inclusion in parliament while the Soeharto-era ruling party Golkar expanded its vote share at PDI‑Perjuangan's expense.  Jeff and Kevin break down the implications and outlook.  Also: an all-too predictable kerfuffle on new Customs restrictions for arriving travellers and some thoughts on a portentous WTO ruling on palm-derived biodiesel.

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Reformasi Dispatch takes a closer look at the vote-count process unfolding, with help from a foremost civil-society figure, Khoirunnisa ('Ninis') Nur Agustyati of Perludem.  We discuss the technical drawbacks affecting the online 'SiRekap' display of the Election Commission (KPU) and whether commissioners acted judiciously in taking down the display on 5 March.  Ninis explains the significance of C-Form tabulations from ballot stations and possible explanations for some to still remain missing.  Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss the state of the formal censure proposal in parliament and the estimated seat breakdown for the next parliament and Jakarta assembly (DPRD).

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Indonesia's election authorities took down the 'SiRekap' online display of the vote count -- just after an improbable leap in the count for PSI, the party of the president's younger son.  Erin Cook of Dari Mulut ke Mulut steps in as co-host with Kevin to discuss the legislative‑election tallying, whether Jakarta's November gubernatorial contest will feature direct voting and to what extent parallels are discernible with politics in the Philippines.  Plus: weighing in on Taylor Swift and getting Steven to unmute.

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A recent presidential fashion statement -- a bright yellow necktie -- triggered anticipation that he may harbor designs on a takeover of Golkar, the Soeharto-era ruling party that will likely remain second-largest in the next parliament.  Insider sources cited by Tempo magazine corroborated this indication of this maneuvering via sartorial elegance.  But a Golkar takeover next December would be no simple task, even for the powerful Joko Widodo -- and it might conflict with the interests of Prabowo Subianto.  Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss Prabowo's Free Lunch program and its costs, along with a possible parliamentary process to censure the government for wayward handling of the election process.

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Nickel smelter air pollution, and the cost on the economy and public health, is the focus of substantive research in a new 100-page report from Crea and Celios.  Crea analyst Katherine Hassan discusses the findings, methodology, and implications -- including the possibility of much of Eastern Indonesia eventually becoming a highly polluted and impoverished zone.  At issue is whether regulatory enforcement will address options for cleaner nickel processing technology, smokestack scrubbing and deployment of renewable energy. 

Given the unmatched attributes of Indonesia's nickel resources and the imperative for transitioning to EV fleets worldwide, nickel‑industry externalities take on global significance.  Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss how the new parliament may shake out and what a limited cabinet reshuffle signals about post-election politics.

To read Celios x CREA's report on nickel downstreaming industry, go to https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/debunking-the-value-added-myth-in-nickel-downstream-industry/

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Pollster Seth Soderborg joins for our post election wrap up as Indonesians overwhelmingly cast ballots in the first round for Prabowo Subianto who syphoned support from Joko Widodo's fellow party member, Ganjar Pranowo. Now Ganjar's party, the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) must decide whether to join a governing coalition or reprise its role as parliamentary opposition. That's something its chair, Megawati Sukarnoputri may relish more than her cadres who may have developed a taste for power over the past decade under Widodo. 

Also Wahyu Dyatmika, CEO of Info Media Digital, the digital arm of Tempo Media Group joins after the break to talk about ongoing harassment of reporters and cyber attacks during the campaign, driving up the risks and costs to media companies which seek to hold the powerful to account.

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The Prabowo-Gibran ticket has succeeded in portraying the 14 February national election as, in effect, a referendum on Widodo-ism -- with themselves on the overwhelmingly popular side promising "continuity".  But will it instead, unbeknownst to many, actually prove to be a referendum on democracy? Jeff and Kevin discuss new polling data and the impact (if any) of some livelier public discourse in the final days approaching balloting.  We expect a comfortable first-round majority for Prabowo.  Also: a look at the legislative elections, the election-day Quick Count methodology, and some consideration of post-election policymaking.

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If you enjoy Reformasi Dispatch, you might enjoy our special episode.
In this special episode, we talk to Andreas Harsono, a veteran reporter and rights advocate writing for the NGO Human Rights Watch.

Get the episode on Buy Me A Coffee
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/reformasi/e/219468

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