In this Global Macro Update, Nik walks through a massive chart pack to help decode today’s volatile macro landscape. Gold is leading the way, outpacing Bitcoin over the past 12 months and signaling a global monetary reset in motion. Nik connects the dots between soaring gold prices, weakening demand for U.S. Treasuries, and a shift away from dollar recycling as trade relationships are restructured. He analyzes Bitcoin’s technical setup, MVRV valuation, and ETF inflows, and explores how rising bond volatility and term premia are draining liquidity. Plus, new insights on the U.S. energy boom, unemployment pressures, and why the Fed may cut rates even as inflation stays tame.

Link to Bessent speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRCsjVlA0VA&t=1s

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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt

Chapters:

00:00:00 Bitcoin and Gold Performance: A 12-Month Overview  

00:03:01 Understanding Gold Price Movements in a Global Economy

00:05:42 The Importance of Bitcoin's Decentralization

00:08:30 Understanding Bitcoin's Realized Price and Investor Behavior

00:11:14 Bitcoin Price Drivers and Realized Price  

00:13:49 Evolution of Bitcoin Volatility  

00:16:36 The Impact of Bitcoin Bounce and Market Liquidity Trends

00:19:11 Understanding M2 and Asset Base Relationship  

00:22:01 Changing Dynamics in US Treasury Holdings

00:24:52 Impact of US Government Spending Cuts on the Economy

00:27:42 Impact of Tariffs on Economic Growth and Inflation

00:30:18 Inflation Trends and Market Responses

00:33:12 Fed's Rate Cut Strategy and Economic Indicators

00:35:56 Impact of US Manufacturing Decline  

00:38:32 Path to U.S. Fiscal Sustainability  

00:41:13 Bitcoin's Growing Share in Global Equities

00:44:04 Conclusion and Farewell

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.