A chaotic day leads Don into a deep (and entertaining) dive into the futility of market timing, spurred by a recent Morningstar article on Pacer’s Trendpilot ETF. Don and Tom break down the mechanics of the fund’s strategy, its underperformance compared to a simple 60/40 portfolio, and the long-term cost of trying to avoid downturns. Listener questions bring up diversification, Roth IRAs, and the eternal struggle with ticker symbols. Plus, a special heads-up for federal employees about an upcoming webinar. And yes, kilt ventilation is discussed.

0:04 “It never rains but it pours” rant, helicopters, kilts, and chaos

2:02 Welcome and the evolution from market timing believers to skeptics

3:13 Trendpilot ETF’s moving average strategy explained (kind of)

5:45 Morningstar says: strategy failed, underperformed S&P by 5% annually

6:58 97-year 60/40 portfolio beats Trendpilot in return and volatility

8:32 2020 example: Trendpilot missed the 38% rebound—ouch

9:59 Why market timing fails most investors over time

11:05 Loss aversion vs. long-term strategy with fixed income

13:08 Trendpilot’s $3.3B in AUM—but it still doesn’t justify market timing

14:23 Listener mail: VTEB vs VTBE, Series 65 textbook gems, diversification

18:26 How much in a single stock? Almost none

19:10 Roth IRA allocation question—AVUS, DFIV, AVUV, and maybe just AVGE

22:24 One-fund to rule them all: AVGE breaks it down across 15 funds

24:11 Federal employee webinar pitch – June 7 at appellowealth.com

25:39 Wrapping up with call-in info, dreams about forgetting the phone number, and kilts (again)

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices