S2 Underground

//The Wire//1500Z December 8, 2024//

//PRIORITY//

//BLUF: SYRIA FALLS. ASSAD WHEREABOUTS UNKNOWN. ISRAEL INVADES SYRIA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The Syrian government completely collapsed overnight, following little fighting in the capitol of Damascus. The Syrian “rebels” now control all parts of the Syrian government and the leadership of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has ordered an unconditional surrender.

During the fray, aircraft observers noted one military aircraft (an IL-76T) attempting to flee the country before being shot down by unknown forces. Initial rumors circulated that Assad and his family were onboard the aircraft, however this is impossible to confirm at this time. Other rumors suggest that Assad successfully fled the country some time ago, and that he and his family are in hiding.

Immediately upon this news, Israel (which had been staging armor in the Golan Heights for several days), launched a ground invasion of Syria to secure a wide buffer zone and expand Israel’s territorial aspirations.

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Analyst Comments: Even after nearly 15 years of war, the American people are still probably not ready to discuss what this war ended up really being about.

More tactically, this somewhat perplexing and effortless fall of this ancient nation has an element of betrayal to it at present, as many of Assad’s deputies and military generals have not fled the country, and instead are in the process of carving out their part of the warlord kingdom for themselves.

The fate of the hundreds of American soldiers stationed at the al-Tanf garrison in the eastern part of the country remains unknown. Also unknown are the fates of any Americans (who may have been working for NGO groups) who sought to depart the country, but could not do so due to the airport in Damascus being rapidly overrun.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z December 6, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH IN SOUTH KOREA AMID POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SERIES OF ESCALATIONS. SYRIAN REBELS CONTINUE ADVANCE, ARRIVE IN HOMS. DANIEL PENNY TRIAL CONTINUES IN NYC, INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CIVIL UNREST.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Syria: The situation has deteriorated significantly over the past 24 hours. Pro-Assad forces have largely been completely absent throughout most of the country as the conglomeration of rebel forces being led by HTS have continued their advance. Overnight HTS arrived in Homs, and have taken the northern suburbs of the city.

South Korea: Tensions remain high amid the rapid-pace of events that have occurred over the past 24 hours. Specifically, concerns have arisen that President Yoon may declare a state of Martial Law once again as a vote on his impeachment is carried out in Parliament tomorrow. As this impeachment vote essentially comes down to whether or not his own party will support him, the situation remains very fluid. Yoon’s political bloc, the People Power Party, has flip-flopped on supporting him during the impeachment efforts, at first denouncing him because of his first Marital Law declaration, then supporting him a few hours later and vowing to oppose any impeachment efforts. This morning indications emerged that his party would indeed support an impeachment due to the revelation that Yoon has issued military orders for the armed forces to remain on alert until tomorrow…after the impeachment vote. By midday, his party held a meeting and flipped again, confirming the party line that they would not support an impeachment of President Yoon. As it stands President Yoon’s impeachment vote is scheduled for Saturday.

Several high-level officials have also resigned and/or been suspended due to their part in the first coup attempt. The leadership of the RoK Special Warfare Command, the Capital Defense Command, and the Defense Counterintelligence Command have all been suspended by the Defense Ministry.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – The USDA has issued an order for the entire national milk supply to be tested for bird flu. AC: This mandate is somewhat perplexing as any sort of bacteria, virus, or pathogen is neutralized by the HTST pasteurization process that is currently mandated in the United States.

New York: The potential for civil unrest remains elevated as the Daniel Penny trial verdict is expected Monday. This afternoon, the primary charge of manslaughter against Penny was dismissed before the court adjourned for the weekend. The prosecution is trying the comparatively unorthodox attempt to get the second charge to stick with the jury, which will begin deliberating again on Monday. AC: As a reminder this is a very high-profile case that has resulted in high-tensions already due to the racial component of the incident, as well as the extreme levels of bias that have been on display during this trial. As such, though the most serious charge against Penny has been dropped, if he is found guilty of the lesser charges on Monday the potential for civil unrest is greatly reduced. However, if he is found not guilty, acquitted, or the jury is hung on all charges, the potential for civil unrest becomes substantial. As the primary charge has been dropped, malign actors will have time to prepare for demonstrations and unrest operations over the weekend.

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Analyst Comments: Concerning the tactical situation in South Korea, many Members of Parliament remain on ready alert, with reports of some politicians sleeping in their offices, or even in the main assembly hall, to prevent another late-night coup attempt. Outside the National Assembly Building, varying demonstrations have been persistently underway since the crisis began three days ago. Politicians, staffers, and civilians alike have been observed emplacing obs

//The Wire//2300Z December 5, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CALIFORNIA EXPERIENCES TSUNAMI SCARE DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL EARTHQUAKE OFF THE COAST. CHINESE CYBER INCIDENTS HIGHLIGHT TELECOM VULNERABILITIES. SYRIAN REBELS CAPTURE HAMA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Syria: On the southern front, rebel forces have taken the city of Hama, and have begun the southern push toward Homs. On the eastern front HTS has made a rapid advance to the Upper Euphrates River Valley, reaching Lake Assad overnight.

AC: HTS and other rebel forces have been able to take significant ground, while the Syrian Army has largely ceded most of their terrain to the rebel advance. In most areas, HTS has encountered little resistance from the Syrian Army. Russian forces have offered up varying levels of resistance to HTS operations, with some reports claiming significant Russian retaliatory bombings (such as in Aleppo), but other reports indicating Russian forces largely withdrawing without a shot being fired. At the moment, the Russian naval base of Tartus is very much in danger of being cut-off from Damascus by land.

France: Following a vote of no-confidence yesterday, Prime Minister Michel Barnier has been ousted from his position. As of this morning, PM Barnier became the shortest-serving PM in French history by resigning his post which he was appointed to only in September. AC: To highlight Barnier’s unpopularity, both the far-left and far-right factions in government united to oust him for their disapproval of his handling of the budget, making his removal the only successful no-confidence vote in France since 1962. 

-HomeFront-

California: This afternoon a Tsunami Warning was issued for the coast of northern California due to a 7.3 magnitude earthquake that struck the region. In response to the tsunami threat, the mass evacuation of millions of people was ordered, with limited success. After some time, the Warning was canceled, with no tsunami being reported due to the earthquake. AC: Considering the sheer number of people that live directly within the high-tsunami-risk areas in California, the chances of a mass evacuation being successful in the little time allotted were always minimal. However the attempt was made, and mass traffic gridlock was reported before the Tsunami Warning was cancelled.

Washington D.C. – During ongoing investigations into the incidents surrounding the inadequacies of the US Secret Service to protect Donald Trump, Director Ronald Rowe appeared to have a psychological episode during his testimony before Congress. While being questioned by Congressman Pat Fallon, a shouting match erupted between Congressman Fallon and Director Rowe, which began rather suddenly without much warning. As Congressman Fallon was asking Rowe about a photograph of Rowe which was taken at a 9/11 memorial (where Rowe was on-the-job in an official USSS capacity on protective detail), Rowe began rambling about his role in the actual 9/11 attack itself, which immediately devolved into a shouting match between himself and the Congressman.

AC: Shouting at an elected official who represents the people who sign one’s paycheck demonstrates a rather interesting perspective of job security. Regardless of political party, Director Rowe, was not shouting at a suit in Washington…he was shouting at the American taxpayer who demands accountability. Either way, this incident is yet another in a long list of indications of what the American political system has become, and also demonstrates the very serious problems within the agency. A Director who is mentally unwell or has anger issues to the point that he can’t even control himself while answering basic questions about his job (a job which involves the use of lethal force) is probably a more practical indicator of how serious the problems within the USSS are than any other Congressional testimony.

USA: This morning, vario

//The Wire//2300Z December 4, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SITUATION IN SOUTH KOREA SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AS DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE. UNITED HEALTHCARE CEO ASSASSINATED IN NYC. HAMA IN DANGER OF ENCIRCLEMENT IN SYRIA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Syria: Rebel forces continue their assault on Hama as Russian forces continue to lose terrain and equipment. This morning, rebel forces allegedly photographed the capture of a Podlet K1 radar system in Hama, which is used in conjunction with S300/S400 air defense systems. AC: By this afternoon, it appears that Hama may be close to becoming encircled by rebel forces, with the only point of egress to the south of the city becoming threatened by HTS forces which have pushed south from the east and west of the city in a classic pincer movement throughout the day.

South Korea: The impacts from yesterday’s events continues to be felt throughout Seoul as lawmakers begin impeachment proceedings against President Yoon. So far, the military situation has reached a point of stability, though it is uncertain as to who has been arrested so far.

-HomeFront-

New York: The CEO of United Healthcare Brian Thompson was assassinated this morning by an unknown assailant on the sidewalk outside of the Hilton Midtown hotel. The assassin remains at large. AC: Of note, this incident appears to be a more professional assassination and not an incident of random street crime.

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Analyst Comments: The additional details that have become public during yesterday’s rapid-pace of events in South Korea have been interesting. In typical South Korean fashion, the situation has mostly been a rollercoaster of events, with many power-players changing perspectives and positions in rapid order. The coup-that-never-was continues to be a series of exceptionally strange events that do not adhere to the normally-observed characteristics of a full-blown military coup.

Militarily speaking, the exact military units that took part in the failed coup attempt remain unidentified. Following the high-tensions in the morning, throughout the day other unidentified military forces were observed outside the homes of prominent opposition politicians as well as many journalists. Separately, several RoK defense officials stated that they had no idea what was happening at the time, and only heard of the activities at the National Assembly Building from the local news broadcasts.

This could indicate several possibilities that are usually inherent to similar coup attempts such as this one. For one, many of the generals who were indeed supportive of Yoon during this crisis will undoubtedly remain silent now that Yoon’s attempt failed. On the other hand, compared to the actual size of South Korea’s military, and the speed at which events transpired, it is very likely that most of the military (probably to include many senior leaders) actually did not know what was happening, and therefore had no hand in any of this.

Additional details complicate the involvement of military forces. For instance, some of the teams that breached the windows and gained entry into the National Assembly Building appeared to have been outfitted with weapons that were for training purposes. Specifically, some citizens were able to photograph the configuration of some of the soldiers’ weapons, which indicated that at least several of them were outfitted with training bolts. This means that in at least some cases, soldiers were incapable of firing live rounds, but rather outfitted in a training role. Other soldiers were observed to have no magazines in their sidearms as well.

This detail complicates the picture significantly, with a few possibilities remaining plausible. The deployment of troops to the National Assembly Building could have been a very dangerous bluff, with the soldiers never really intending to militarily overthrow anyone, but rathe

//The Wire//2200Z December 3, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MARTIAL LAW DECLARED IN SOUTH KOREA, PRESIDENT DEPLOYS MILITARY THROUGHOUT SEOUL BEFORE PARLIAMENT NULLIFIES ORDER. SYRIAN REBEL FORCES CAPTURE ALEPPO, PIVOT SOUTH TOWARD HAMA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Syria: Opposition forces have completely taken the city of Aleppo, which largely remains under the control of opposition forces comprising of HTS, ISIS, and various other smaller al-Qaeda splinter groups. Syrian governmental forces largely have offered little resistance to the advance, which has continued to push south toward Hama. Fighting has now reached the suburbs of Hama, where the Syrian Army and Russia have mounted varying levels of defense.

Korean Peninsula: This morning President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law throughout South Korea and immediately ordered the suspension of Parliament and the deployment of military forces in Seoul. Immediately following this declaration, many events occurred in very short order. As military forces surrounded Parliament and entered the building with the goal of shutting down proceedings, legislators called an Emergency Session to conduct a snap vote to nullify the martial law declaration.

While Members of Parliament were climbing over barricades and using other means to gain access to the main voting hall of the National Assembly Building, soldiers encircled the building, with a large complement of military and police taking up position at the main entrance on the south side of the building. A detachment of unidentified soldiers (likely a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) from the RoK Army Special Warfare Command) were observed breaching the exterior windows of the Assembly Building to gain entry as at least 3x UH-60 helicopters established an aerial presence over the structure (possibly intending to conduct an Air Assault to fast-rope soldiers onto the roof of the building, but more likely to provide transportation for other QRF elements that deployed to the Assembly complex).

As armed soldiers were in the hallway outside the main chamber attempting to break through and/or bypass the barricades hastily constructed by Parliamentary staffers, the vote to nullify the martial law order passed unanimously, with 190 Members of Parliament who were able to vote supporting the reversal of the martial law declaration. Zero MPs voted to continue the state of martial law. Following the vote, the Speaker was able to convince the soldiers to depart from the building. A few minutes after the vote, military forces began withdrawing from the interior of the National Assembly Building, with most forces remaining in the vicinity while the details of command were being worked out.

Per South Korean law, the vote to nullify the state of marital law does not actually do so in practice, President Yoon is still required to issue the stand-down order himself. The vote in Parliament merely forces the President to issue the recension order. Consequently, Parliament announced that they will not leave the building until the order is rescinded by Yoon. Though the initial confrontations have simmered down, President Yoon has not been seen or heard from since the order was issued around midnight, and military spokesmen have indicated that they will not fully stand down without the order from Yoon himself. A few moments ago, rumors indicated that Yoon may issue the order to withdraw tomorrow.

However, several hours after the initial scuffle at the National Assembly Building, some reports suggested that military forces had indeed decided to follow their original orders as issued by President Yoon, which included arresting the leaders of Yoon’s opposition movement in Parliament: Lee Jae-myung, Han Dong-hoon, and Woo Won-sik. Earlier in the day, Lee Jae-myung had filmed himself stating that President Yoon was no longer President due to his actions. At the moment it is not clear

//The Wire//2300Z December 2, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ALEPPO OFFENSIVE CONTINUES, ADDITIONAL AXIS OF ADVANCE OPENS TOWARDS HAMA. HUNTER BIDEN PARDONED. TENUOUS CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON COLLAPSES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Syria: The advance on Aleppo continues, with rebel forces (mostly HTS) now controlling most of the western half of the city. The airport in Aleppo is also now controlled by rebel forces, to include a few major Syrian Army (SAA) depots and the complement of fighter aircraft that were abandoned by the Army as the airport was being overrun.

Over the weekend, a separate axis of advance was observed maneuvering toward Hama, another major city just north of Homs. This southern advance now threatens the logistical corridor used by the Russian Naval base in Tartus, Russia’s only direct access point for the Mediterranean Sea that does not involve going through the Turkish Straits.

Lebanon: The ceasefire has collapsed following targeting in Lebanon this afternoon. Today, Hezbollah launched two rockets toward Israeli positions, prompting Israel to renew aerial targeting efforts. AC: Both sides claim the other broke the ceasefire first; Hezbollah claims their rockets were the retaliation for earlier Israeli targeting, while Israel omits any previous targeting that they have conducted after the ceasefire was brokered.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – Yesterday afternoon President Biden pardoned his son Hunter for any and all crimes he has committed from January 1, 2014 until December 1, 2024. This afternoon the White House confirmed that this will not be the only pardon issued by President Biden before leaving office, and that other pardons are currently in the works.

Also in Washington, this morning mainstream media (citing unnamed sources) have claimed that the United States is preparing another $725 million aid package to Ukraine, which allegedly includes military aid in the form of Anti-Personnel Landmines (APLs).

Florida: Controversy has erupted following some of the more contentious cabinet appointment choices that Donald Trump has announced as his administration takes shape. Over the weekend the incoming Trump administration announced the nomination of Florida Sheriff Chad Chronister to lead the DEA. AC: Chronister has gained infamy over the years for his draconian policies during the COVID era, which included the arrest of a local pastor who dared to hold Church services in violation of social-distancing orders. Chronister is also a supporter of transgender ideology (and law enforcement taking part in it via various social events celebrating social degeneracy), and has been a champion of DEI initiatives, to include the early release of violent criminals who have gone on to immediately reoffend.

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Analyst Comments: Online, the reaction to Hunter Biden’s pardon has been mixed. Most people seem to be reflecting on the hypocrisy of Joe Biden pardoning a family member when he explicitly stated that he would not do that, while many others have taken the perspective that Biden’s act was a respectable one. However, for those equating Biden’s act as one of a father doing anything to save his son, one detail might derail that wholesome thought. Hunter’s pardon was a blanket amnesty, covering anything Hunter might have done over a period of 11 years. Considering the potential crimes that he may have committed that we will never even know about (because no investigation will ever be conducted now), this distinction is important and has a wider range of implications than a simple case of corruption. For instance, if we were to find out that Hunter Biden was the kingpin of the Epstein human trafficking network, he’s already been pardoned for it. Though no one actually expects any member of society’s elite to actually serve a sentence for a crime they have committed, by issuing a blanket pardon the inve

//The Wire//2300Z November 29, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: WAR IN SYRIA ESCALATES AMID MAJOR REBEL OFFENSIVE. CYBER INCIDENTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE. CEASEFIRE LARGELY HOLDING IN LEBANON, DESPITE BOTH PARTIES CLAIMING VIOLATIONS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: As part of a general summit on security topics in Kazakhstan, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a few interesting remarks regarding Donald Trump. Speaking off-the-cuff, Putin made direct references to Trump’s safety in the context of his multiple assassination attempts, saying: “By the way, in my view, even now he’s not safe. Yes, why? The United States history has seen various developments. But he is a clever and cautious man, I should hope he realizes all that”.

Europe: Danish authorities clarify details regarding a nationwide IT outage yesterday, which reportedly began as a small outage before expanding to include rail, cellular networks, and other telecoms infrastructure which were all affected and offline for hours. AC: This could be related to the initial reports of a similar outage in the Netherlands yesterday; either the initial reports of outages in the Netherlands were incorrect or the outages were minor in scale to those of Denmark, which were more substantial. 

Separately, this afternoon a large-scale cyber incident appeared to strike Russia, with many banking services and financial institutions reporting service interruptions. Russian airline companies also reported similar interruptions to ticketing and booking systems.

Georgia: Significant escalations of ongoing domestic tensions emerged overnight as the Prime Minister announced a cessation of Georgia’s bid to join the European Union. This announcement reignited unrest among Georgians along two major perspectives: those who support a more pro-EU, pro-West future for Georgia, and those who wish to pivot away from the EU in favor of Russia.

Lebanon: The ceasefire largely appears to be holding for the moment. However, over the past 24 hours, both sides have claimed the other violated the ceasefire, with limited skirmishes taking place in the border regions of Lebanon. AC: Of course, the general idea of a ceasefire is for both belligerents to stop shooting at each other completely, which has not happened. However, both sides have reduced the intensity of combat operations to largely consist of isolated ambushes (from Hezbollah) and airstrikes (from Israel). Considering the tradition of the region, a reduction in combat intensity (if not an outright cessation of hostilities) might be the best anyone can hope for at the present moment.

Syria: A significant escalation of the war is underway as fighting reaches Aleppo once again. Syrian “rebel” groups have advanced into the city, conducting a large scale offensive (which began a few days ago) toward Aleppo from Idlib. AC: The war in Syria, largely forgotten over the past few years following the 2020 ceasefire agreement, has remained an extremely complex conflict. Over the past few months, one of the many factions at play in the region, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (which evolved from the Jabhat al-Nusra group) has made significant territorial gains, which may now include the fall of Aleppo.

-HomeFront-

USA: This morning employees of the Amazon corporation conducted a labor strike, with employees from around 20 different countries participating. Most of the grievances appear to be centered around wage increases and demanding Amazon to allow workers to unionize. AC: It’s not yet clear as to how this will affect logistics around the world considering that Amazon is not just a retailer of consumer goods, but also a very large provider of data and web services.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The IT issues experienced throughout Europe over the past few weeks (some minor, some substantial) are quite interesting in the context of the two cable-cut

//The Wire//2300Z November 28, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PUBLIC TRANSIT OFFLINE THROUGHOUT THE NETHERLANDS. RUSSIA/UKRAINE RHETORIC CONTINUES AS BEFORE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: Concerns are growing with regards to recent ideas/sentiments that have been floated by NATO and the United States. Specifically, Russia (to include Putin himself) has responded to the rumors of the United States potentially giving Ukraine nuclear weapons.

AC: As a reminder 100% of this rumor regarding the potential gifting of nuclear weapons to Ukraine originates from a single opinion piece by the New York Times, and has not been independently verified to any degree as being a serious consideration. Nevertheless, it’s now an idea that’s on the international stage, with Putin addressing the potential directly. As one might expect, Russia has used the strongest possible language to denounce the idea, however the fact that they felt the need to even address this in the first place is mildly concerning. Granted, almost all Russian politicians are exceptionally skilled in needling the West and latching on to an idea that puts them at an advantage, so that opportunity would have not gone to waste in any case.

Netherlands: This afternoon Dutch authorities reported multiple nationwide outages of public transportation services. Separately, various problems with cellular networks have also been reported simultaneously. No official word has been released on the cause of the systems outages, however speculation by local media has focused on the issue possibly being related to a bug within a software update for a critical data center. AC: A similar scenario also happened back in August, leading many to believe the same IT issues have once again disrupted public transit services. However, it’s too soon to tell if another software glitch is to blame, or if this is the result of malign action.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Concerning other rumors regarding the situation in Ukraine, mutterings are mounting that suggest Putin may indeed launch another IRBM soon. This time, with the target being Kiev. Zelensky has said as much over the past few days, and has specifically requested missile defense systems capable of intercepting Russia’s missiles, even though there is no defense system on the planet capable of intercepting hypersonic warheads at this time (at least nothing that has been made public yet).

These rumors have been exacerbated by Russia releasing a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM number N1506/24 which pertained to an airspace closure. Since the airspace closure was directly over the Kapustin Yar Missile Test Site, those unfamiliar with Russia’s defense doctrine may have thought this was an indication of another missile launch. However, this particular NOTAM is quite routine, as Russia (like the United States) regularly conducts missile testing that requires such notice. This routine NOTAM has already expired, and had nothing to do with an IRBM launch.

When Russia launched their Oreshnik IRBM into Ukraine the first time, they did not declare an airspace closure, preferring instead to let the boldness of their actions convey their message. Whether or not Russia will indeed launch another IRBM (or even an ICBM next time) remains uncertain, as one might expect. 

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z November 27, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: WARTIME PREPARATIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT EUROPE, USA PLANS NEXT AID PACKAGE FOR UKRAINE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Throughout the continent talks have continued among many nations regarding defense spending. German and French defense officials have engaged in many discussions regarding how to keep the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) relevant and in place once Trump becomes President. The UDCG is the formal name for the NATO-led coalition of nations that are involved in supporting Ukraine. Since the American election, most high-ranking coalition members have started to reassess funding allocations for the war effort (along with their own national budgetary considerations).

Middle East: Yesterday evening, the White House announced that a ceasefire agreement had been reached between Israel and Hezbollah, which allegedly will result in a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon.

AC: Immediately after the announcement, Israeli forces reportedly conducted airstrikes in a few suburbs of Beirut. It’s not clear as to if this was a direct violation of their own ceasefire, or last-minute targeting before the ceasefire went into effect. Regardless, in the hours since the ceasefire went into effect, it appears to be holding for now. However, due to the intensity of this conflict, nothing remains certain. The conflict in Gaza and the West Bank largely continues as before, with varying levels of intensity along both fronts.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – The White House has requested Congress to authorize another $24 billion in financial aid to Ukraine.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Continuing the trend of “unnamed sources” being one of the only barometers for the Biden regime’s plans regarding the Ukrainian War, this morning ABC claimed that the White House is privately requesting Ukraine to lower their conscription age to 18 (from 25). For obvious reasons this cannot be independently confirmed, however this possibility is unlikely to matter much in the grand scheme of the war. Ukraine has already conscripted most people eligible for national service regardless of age (and a great many that aren’t fit for duty as well). Concerning the financial aspect of the war, more pushes for funding are to be expected over the next few weeks.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z November 26, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: COMPLEXITIES AND NUANCE OF NATO PERSPECTIVES IN EUROPE CONTINUE CONTRIBUTING TO TENSIONS REMAINING HIGH. POSTURING EFFORTS AMONG ALL PARTIES CONTINUES AS WELL.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Posturing efforts by NATO continue as before. Yesterday French media outlets reported that both France and Britain are allegedly considering the deployment of troops to Ukraine.

AC: While these claims have been made before in the past, the “unnamed sources” in this case cited the sideline diplomatic discussions during a recent Remembrance Day visit by PM Starmer to France. Two days ago, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot visited London, and made statements suggesting those earlier sideline discussions were probably true. More specifically, when mentioning the involvement of France and the U.K. more directly in the conflict he stated that “we do not discard any option”.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In classic form, many legacy media outlets have also amplified fearful messaging to the point of directly altering the statements of senior NATO officials. For instance, many pundits have claimed that NATO is considering a first strike against Russia. In reality, the quote that sparked this manipulative and misleading news headline came from Adm. Rob Bauer, who has spoken publicly twice over the past week with regards to the focus being on NATO’s military readiness at a time of global instability. Adm. Bauer’s original quote is as follows:

“The idea was we are a defensive alliance, so we will only sit and wait until we are attacked, and then when we are attacked, we will be able to shoot down the 'arrows' that come to us.” And that it would be “smarter to attack the archer, that is...Russia—if Russia attacks us. So you need to have a combination of deep precision (strikes) with which you can take out the weapons systems that are used to attack us”.

As Adm. Bauer is of Dutch nationality there is likely some level of the meaning of his quote being lost in translation. More specifically, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov directly lied and stated that Bauer called for a “preemptive strike”, when Bauer never actually used the word “preemptive” in his original quote. Western media, not understanding what Bauer was trying to convey (and also being unwilling to watch the video recording of his talk themselves), probably heard these Russian claims and in their zeal to focus on the fearmongering potential, warped the original meaning of his message. Somewhat hilariously, western media has focused on this one quote (from an hour-long seminar and Q&A session)…while completely ignoring the larger message conveyed during the talk. Bauer’s short quote has been taken out of context; he was not advocating for a direct preemptive strike on Russia, but quite the opposite.

In fact, quite literally Bauer’s next sentence was “and because we are a defensive alliance, we will have to take the first blow. So Russia will start the conflict, because we are not going to attack Russia out of nothing.” Bauer’s overall remarks were exceptionally concerning, and very much indicative of NATO driving as fast as possible towards a direct military confrontation with Russia. In effect, this indicates that the media is right, but right for the wrong reasons. In this case, a bit of background knowledge must be understood to properly make decisions based on NATO’s perspective.

Much of the consternation around Bauer’s statements probably comes from a lack of understanding of how the nuts and bolts of a Large-Scale Combat Operation (LSCO) would actually work out if such a war were to break out between NATO and Russia. Additionally, this somewhat minor quote/incident is illustrative of long-standing NATO doctrine that requires more time to explain the nuance of. Bauer, who was responding to a ques