BLUF: VENEZUELA BEGINS PREPARATION FOR OPERATIONS WITHIN ESEQUIBO.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: In Germany, the Ministry of the Interior for the state of Saxony-Anhalt has mandated that all naturalization candidates must declare their support for Israel as part of the naturalization process. Specifically, those seeking German citizenship in this region will be required to provide a written statement declaring their support for Israel. If this oath is not provided, this will lead to the denial of naturalization for those seeking German citizenship. AC: The documentation released so far indicates that candidates are not free to choose their own wording, as local authorities have been mandated to set the specific wording used in the oath sworn to Israel.

South America: Venezuela demonstrates several indications and warnings of an impending invasion. Venezuela has declared the Esequibo region to be Venezuelan territory and has added the region to their official national map. Several officials have also declared that Venezuela will be creating a military zone in the region and issuing new ID cards to those living in remote villages throughout the area.

-Analyst Comments-

In terms of a military invasion, the actions by Venezuela may not result in much news due to the remote nature of the terrain. Most of this region is uncharted territory; there are no major cities or major highways in this “disputed” area, with this region hosting some of the largest untouched jungle on the continent. As such, Venezuela can dominate the terrain by creating FOBs in critical areas, by which oil surveys can be protected. From these Centers of Gravity, Venezuelan troops can occupy the region, without exercising complete control over every inch of the terrain. This may be good enough for Venezuela’s oil-pursuing intentions, but this does present vulnerabilities that can be exploited by a much smaller force.

However, this extremely remote terrain means that Venezuela’s actions can technically be described as an “invasion” or “occupation”, but will likely not take the form that many might think. Small groups of Venezuelan troops have already entered this area over the past few years, under the guise of combating illegal mining, so sporadic Venezuelan presence in the region is not unheard of. For more significant operations, Venezuela may place FOBs/firebases in the middle of the jungle and operate for weeks, with no opposition. What is likely to occur first is the establishment of Forward Arming and Refueling Points (FARPs) near the border, or just inside the Esequibo. This will be crucial to allow Venezuelan troops logistics hubs to refuel and stage operations for the construction of bases of operations within the region.

Regarding concerns this invasion may have for the Homefront, the nationstate of Guyana is largely influenced by the controlling interests of ExxonMobil, due to the extremely oil-rich nature of the region but especially since the discovery of extensive petroleum fields in 2015. ExxonMobil produces a total of roughly 600,000+ BPD from the nation of Guyana (including extensive offshore production facilities). As a reminder for perspective, OPEC+ recently announced a voluntary production cut of 1 million BPD (on top of the 1 million BPD cut already in place). The seriousness of this situation could influence the global oil markets in ways not previously anticipated, as Venezuelan military operations raise the stakes of an already tumultuous oil market. History confirms that petroleum wars tend to result in Large Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) at some point, the gravity of which is usually ignored by a populace in the days leading up to a regional conflagration. 

RR The Wire 2230Z December 5, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 223005Z DEC 23

ICOD: 213005Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN GAZA AND WEST BANK. SOUTH AMERICA AWAITS VENEZEULA’S NEXT MOVE.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Conflict in Jenin intensifies following IDF actions in the area. Airstrikes continue to be persistent throughout much of the West Bank. Hezbollah militants in Lebanon continue rocket attacks as before.

South America: Brazilian military forces remain at a heightened state of readiness following the escalation of tensions in the region. So far, there are no solid indicators of Venezuelan actions regarding their potential annexation of Esequibo. AC: Some demonstrators in the Esequibo have conducted displays of support for Venezuela on social media. Several Venezuelan flags have been placed on strategic mountaintops in the region as well.

Europe: Among US politicians, rhetoric concerning the Ukrainian war has radically reversed course over the past few weeks. Even the most dedicated supporters of the Ukrainian war are announcing that financial and military support for Ukraine will continue to dwindle.

-HomeFront-

TX: A chemical incident at the Altivia Specialty Chemicals plant in La Porte resulted in the release of phosgene gas. This incident prompted evacuations for the local area. No word on what caused the incident.

-Analyst Comments-

It is currently unclear as to whether or not Venezuela will actually go through with plans to invade Guyana. Posts on social media (which are the only insight into the remote region) remain wildly variable and extremely unconfirmed. If Venezuela were to launch an invasion, terrain will likely be the biggest limiting factor as Guyana’s entire military (using 2018 numbers) is roughly the size of the Dallas Police Department. Additionally, if an invasion were to occur, it would be difficult to determine virtually any information as the Esequibo region is largely untouched by civilization.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

NNNN

00:00 - Introduction

01:44 - Format

05:48 - Declare War on Your Enemies

07:06 - Do Not Fight the Last War

07:49 - Presence of Mind

08:38 - Create a Sense of Urgency

09:48 - Groupthink

10:47 - Segment Your Forces

12:51 - Morale Strategies

16:12 - Pick Your Battles

18:38 - Counterattack

20:05 - Deterrence

20:25 - Trade Space for Time

24:09 - Lose Battles, Win the War

26:03 - Know Your Enemy

29:16 - Blitzkrieg

31:08 - Control the Dynamic

32:40 - Centers of Gravity

35:32 - Divide and Conquer

38:34 - Flanking

38:18 - Envelop the Enemy

39:35 - Maneuver Warfare

39:49 - Diplomatic War

40:23 - Exit Strategy

40:58 - Unconventional Warfare

42:48 - Fact and Fiction

47:09 - Expectations

47:56 - Morale High Ground

48:50 - Deny Them Targets

49:39 - Allies

50:23 - Play to Egos

51:26 - Take Small Bites

52:14 - Penetrate Minds

52:40 - Destroy From Within

55:25 - Passive Aggression

56:07 - Sow Uncertainty

57:00 - Closing Thoughts and Comments

RR The Wire 1800Z December 4, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 180004Z DEC 23

ICOD: 173004Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: MERCHANT SHIPPING ATTACKED IN RED SEA. U.S. PLEDGES TO BAN ALL COAL POWER BY 2055.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Significant developments have occurred following multiple attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Several commercial vessels have been attacked by possible ASCMs and kamikaze drones (of Yemeni origin) over the past 24 hours. The USS CARNEY (DDG-64) successfully engaged at least THREE ASCM's and multiple kamikaze drones during the attack, while responding to the multiple distress calls from merchant vessels. The following is the preliminary damage report concerning all vessels involved in the attack:

M/V UNITY EXPLORER – Minor-Moderate Damage

M/V NUMBER 9 – Severe Damage, Risk of Sinking

M/V SOPHIE II – Minor-Moderate Damage

USS CARNEY – No damage sustained.

AC: Expect substantial US Navy presence (as well as other nations/coalitions) in the region following the escalation of these attacks. Threats to global maritime shipping will almost certainly result in an escalation of presence patrols (and hostilities) in the region. Specifically, the USS BATAAN (LHD-5) ARG, and the USS CARTER HALL (LSD-50) remain O/S in the northern Red Sea, and could maneuver south to provide additional support.

South America: Yesterday, Venezuelan citizens voted overwhelmingly to support the annexation of the Esequibo region of Guyana.

-HomeFront-

USA: Special Envoy John Kerry has announced that the United States will be joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance. This is an international pledge to immediately halt the construction of new coal-fired power plants, and to remove all existing coal power plants by 2035. AC: According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), last year roughly 20% of all energy produced in the US originated from coal.

-Analyst Comments-

The vote turning in favor of an annexation of Esequibo is not surprising considering Venezuela’s electoral history. However, now that Maduro has the mandate, the world awaits Venezuela’s actions on the matter. Very early (and unconfirmed) reports suggest that Venezuelan SOF may already have penetrated the jungles of the Esequibo region. This would align with Venezuela’s goals, and if confirmed would lead to even more escalation throughout the region.

As the US has blamed the allegedly Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled Yemeni government for the recent attacks on maritime shipping, this will add to the list of justifications to attack Iran that many US politicians have been wanting. As a reminder, several US politicians have openly called for a war with Iran, specifically for the launching of preemptive strikes against targets in Iran. While difficult to tell if these recent attacks will be the “straw that broke the camels back”, it is very likely that increased harassment and attacks on commercial shipping will draw an international response.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 1700Z December 2, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 170002Z DEC 23

ICOD: 163002Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN GAZA. TENSIONS REMAIN IN SOUTH AMERICA IN ADVANCE OF REFERENDUM VOTE.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: The war in Gaza continues as the end of the ceasefire results in renewed efforts by all parties. Several small militant groups within Lebanon have declared their participation in the conflict as Hezbollah increases attacks in the North. Israel continues bombing attacks on all fronts, while Hamas rocket attacks have mainly focused on targeting Israeli positions to the north of Gaza City.

South America: Military posturing efforts remain underway in Brazil as tensions escalate before the Venezuelan referendum on Guyana. Tomorrow, Venezuelan voters head to the polls to vote on whether or not to annex the Esequibo region of Guyana.

-Homefront-

USA: Details emerge regarding the stabbing of Derek Chauvin. The assailant was John Turscak, who was sentenced in 2001 to 30 years confinement for racketeering while serving as an FBI informant working within Mexican mafia circles. Turscak claims to have committed the attack in solidarity with the BLM movement.

-Analyst Comments-

Tensions in Guyana and Brazil will remain high over the next few days as the Venezuelan population (in effect) votes on whether or not to invade another country. Considering Venezuela’s current political and electoral situation, there is little doubt as to the outcome of this vote. What is more debatable is whether or not Venezuela will indeed carry out their plans.

Regarding the attempted assassination of Derek Chauvin, it is unclear as to why a federal informant who, nearing the end of their sentence, would commit an attack in the name of a group that Mexican cartels have historically had a tepid relationship with.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2130Z December 1, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 213001Z DEC 23

ICOD: 200001Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: GAZA CEASEFIRE HAS BROKEN. TENSIONS REMAIN IN NORTHERN BRAZIL.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: In Gaza, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has been broken. It is unclear as which side began hostilities first (or if the deadline was reached), as both sides launched nearly simultaneous attacks. Hamas has conducted substantial rocket attacks in the North, with Israel conducting substantial airstrikes IVO the Rafah border crossing. Attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon continue as well. Due to the intensity of the conflict, humanitarian aid shipments into Gaza via the Rafah crossing have stopped for the time being.

Europe: In Russia, Vladimir Putin signs decree increasing the total size of the AFRF by 170,000. AC: This is not a deployment or mobilization, but rather an increase in the standing size of the Russian military. Currently Russia’s military is comprised of roughly 1.3 million service members. This move comes three weeks after Russia’s (and NATO’s) formal withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), the treaty intended to limit the numbers of troops in Europe at the height of the Cold War.

South America: Brazil continues to bolster defenses along the border with Venezuela amid high tensions in the region. AC: Limited reports on social media indicate Brazil has moved forces into a salient north of Boa Vista. Due to terrain limitations and the access of roads, a Venezuelan land-based invasion of Guyana (if it were to happen) could be conducted via Brazil’s territory.

-Homefront-

GA: Local reporting indicates a woman has possibly attempted to self-immolate outside the Israeli Consulate in Atlanta. NFI ATT. AC: Though a currently developing event, initial reports indicate the woman was wearing/holding a Palestinian flag, suggesting the motive for the incident as being linked to the current conflict in the Middle East.

-Analyst Comments-

In the Middle East, Israel has almost certainly made good use of the ceasefire to continue SIGINT collection efforts within Gaza. However, it is unclear as to how effective this intelligence gathering would have been as Hamas militants clearly understand Israel’s superior technical intelligence capability. As a result, airstrikes are likely to be intense as targeting efforts catch up to the intelligence picture.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2330Z November 30, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 233030Z NOV 23

ICOD: 230030Z NOV 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN WEST BANK. DEVELOPMENTS IN POL PRODUCTION INFLUENCE MARKET PRICES.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: The ceasefire in Gaza continues as fighting increases severity in the West Bank. AC: Conflict in Jenin has remained volatile since the ceasefire began.

OPEC announces a further cutting of production by 1 million BPD. AC: This is in addition to the 1 million BPD production cut already in place until the end of the year. As this information comes on the heels of Brazil’s announcement of joining OPEC+ next year, it is unclear as to how severely the increasing of voluntary production cuts will affect crude prices next year.

South American Front: Tensions flare between Guyana and Venezuela following long-standing territorial disputes in the region. Brazil has reportedly begun moving troops to their border with Venezuela allegedly in response to Venezuelan troop movements near the disputed zone.

-Homefront-

NY: Pro-Palestine demonstrations disrupt the Rockefeller Center Christmas tree lighting ceremony. Initial reports indicate at least two arrests were made.

Washington D.C. – An FBI agent was carjacked by two armed attackers, both of whom remain at large.

-Analyst Comments-

As a reminder, Venezuela has claimed roughly 70% of Guyana’s land mass as being historically integral to Venezuela. The disputed territory is allegedly home to vast petroleum deposits. Though this issue is not new, the recent tightening of OPEC production could inflame tensions in the region even more over the coming months.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2130Z November 29, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 213029Z NOV 23

ICOD: 210029Z NOV 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: GAZA CEASEFIRE CONTINUES TENUOUSLY. PRO-PALESTINE DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE AS BEFORE.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: The situation regarding the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel remains in question. Some sources continue to claim the ceasefire has broken, but other sources claim the ceasefire is holding. Some evidence suggests that limited skirmishes and engagements have occurred, but the locations of which have been hard to verify. AC: By and large, the ceasefire is probably holding with regards to large-scale attacks such as rocket attacks or bombings. However, due to the insurgent and somewhat cellular nature of Hamas and the severe degradation of communication lines in Gaza, it is possible that some fighters scattered throughout Gaza City either do not know of the ceasefire, or are committed to attacks regardless. Doctrinally speaking, holdouts remaining behind enemy lines are the hardest forces to judge, and if this theory is plausible, this would explain the conflicting reports.

What is more clear is the Israeli advance into West Bank. Though the Gaza Strip may be under a ceasefire, Israeli operations in the West Bank continue as before. Arab media sources are claiming that though Israel has released a little over a hundred prisoners to Hamas in the Gaza prisoner exchanges, Israeli forces have taken roughly the same amount of prisoners in West Bank, many of which may be children. AC: Though the sourcing of these claims is dubious at best (like every single source reporting on this conflict so far), this would make sense in terms of Israel’s strategic goals. Israeli officials have confirmed the military operations in West Bank, but have not indicated how many prisoners they have taken from the area over the past few weeks.

-Homefront-

USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue as before. Reports from social media indicate there will allegedly be a significant Pro-Palestine protest at the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree lighting ceremony. AC: Though most of what’s on social media isn’t true these days, so far tree lighting events around the country have been targeted by demonstrators.

-Analyst Comments-

Moving into the Christmas season, large holiday festivities are likely to be targeted by demonstrations at minimum, and more deliberate attacks at worst. Due to the ongoing events in the Middle East, the potential for lone-wolf attacks is increased throughout North America and Europe. Though this idea can be cut/pasted from any moment in the past decade, this year the motivations for unrest and the authorities’ means to cover up genuine terror attacks, could result in more kinetic actions over the next month.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2100Z November 28, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 210028Z NOV 23

ICOD: 200028Z NOV 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: KNIFE ATTACK THWARTED IN IRELAND. DOJ DOCUMENTS CONFIRM DOMESTIC SPYING IN TRUMP CASE.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

European Front: In Ireland, another terror attack struck Dublin as a man entered a post office with a knife shouting “Allahu Akbar” this morning. Citizens engaged the attacker, stopping the attack before police arrived. No word yet on any injuries. Civil unrest resulting from the first terror attack continues as Irish politicians intensify efforts to silence opposition to immigration policies.

Scandinavian Front: Finland announces a closure of their entire border with Russia due to ongoing immigration disputes. Finnish authorities claim the border will close at midnight on Thursday and be closed for at least two weeks.

Middle East Front: Prisoner swaps continue between Hamas and Israel, before the end of the ceasefire period. Developing reports indicate the ceasefire has possibly been broken and fighting has resumed as before. AC: It is unclear as to which side broke the ceasefire (if it indeed has been broken) as social media accounts used by both sides have blamed each other and the situation is still developing.

-Homefront-

USA: The DoJ has released a search warrant associated with their investigation of Donald Trump. The document in question relates to information sought regarding Trump’s Twitter account. Though 8 of the 14 pages are redacted in their entirety, page 3 confirms that the DoJ sought “All information from the “connect” or “Notifications” tab for the account, including all lists of Twitter users who have favorited or retweeted tweets posted by the account, as well as all tweets that include the username associated with the account (i.e. “mentions” or “replies”). AC: This means that anyone who interacted with Trump’s account on Twitter has had their private account information shared with the DoJ. A “like” on a single post was enough for Twitter to turn over any account’s information to the DoJ.

-Analyst Comments-

The Constitutional and human rights concerns regarding Trump’s search warrant are palpable, but not particularly unexpected. These recent revelations are the latest in the long train of abuses documented clearly and openly by law enforcement agencies. Twitter, failing to immediately comply with the order challenged the search warrant and the Non-Disclosure order (unsuccessfully), and was fined $350,000 before ultimately complying with the order. As a reminder, the judge who approved this search warrant was appointed to the bench by Barack Obama.

In the Middle East, the recent prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas has been a nearly total information victory for Hamas. Though reports are conflicting and almost impossible to verify, prisoners held by Hamas have frequently reported that they have been treated well, whereas prisoners held by the Israelis detail harsh conditions, abuse, and sometimes torture. However, care must be taken to realize that Hamas in particular has the overwhelming incentive to treat prisoners well, knowing that they would be released at some point and would share their experiences with the world. Hamas (being an insurgent force) has everything to gain, and little to lose by treating prisoners well. On the other hand, Israel does not care what the international community thinks, thus the bad press regarding their prisoners has little effect on Israeli policy and/or doctrine. As such, Hamas appearing to treat prisoners well, and Israel appearing to treat prisoners poorly is probably not as indicative of the real situation as we might want it to be.

RR The Wire 2330Z November 27, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 233027Z NOV 23

ICOD: 230027Z NOV 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: UNREST CONTINUES IN IRELAND. PRISONER EXCHANGE IN GAZA HIGHLIGHTS IRREGULARITIES.

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Ireland: Unrest continues following the proposal of new hate speech laws. The proposed legal changes criminalize a substantial amount of online and physical content. AC: Rather than being a new law itself, the proposals so far have been amendments to CJ Bill (22), which is itself a “modernization” of a 1989 law regarding hate speech. However, the newly proposed amendments appear to criminalize the possession of “hate” content, which based on the proposed definitions of “hate content”, can really be any content.

Middle East: Israel and Hamas have conducted prisoner swaps during the tenuous ceasefire. Among the 17 hostages returned to Israel was Abigail Mor Edan, a 4 year old Israeli-American girl. AC: Per an NBC news report which interviewed her family members, her great-aunt was revealed to be Elizabeth Hirsh Naftali, a wealthy Los Angeles real estate investor at the heart of the ongoing corruption scandals within the White House. Naftali was appointed by President Biden to the U.S. Commission for the Preservation of America’s Heritage Abroad. In July 2022 (eight months prior to this appointment), Naftali purchased one of Hunter Biden’s paintings at his first art show in Hollywood. Before the scandals, Naftali was known as a major donor to the Democratic party, and hosted a fundraiser event featuring VP Kamala Harris last year. If these familial ties are true, the direct involvement of the US to secure the release of hostages with direct familial (and financial) ties to the current US government is almost certainly a conflict of interest, the follow-on effects of which cannot be determined at this time.

-Analyst Comments-

Regarding concerns for free speech in Ireland, the recent riots in Dublin appear to have given politicians the political capital needed to usher in a new wave of legislation to target political enemies. As these proposed changes stand, owning a copy of virtually any classic book, having a meme on your phone, and possessing a diary or unapproved news articles can be construed as a criminal act under these proposals. Though these newest updates are getting much attention at the moment, the efforts to restrict speech have been underway for a long time. For instance, in a press statement last year, MoJ McEntee stated that these modernizations are intended to be “effective in securing convictions”, as only about 50 people have been prosecuted for hate speech since 1989.

Over the past few months, authorities have concentrated efforts to restrict individual freedoms in Ireland (as has been a trend throughout Europe at large). In fact, in July Green Party Senator Pauline O'Reilly stated that: “We are restricting freedom but we are doing it for the common good”. Considering Ireland’s history and culture, and the open admission of textbook tyranny taking place in the most literal sense, these efforts are likely to result in boiling points being reached, as has happened following the Dublin terror attack. 

As global tensions remain high, even the smallest incident can result in a flashpoint of events occurring nearly-simultaneously: 1- Citizens revolting (in some regard, however minor it may be), and 2- Authoritarians taking advantage of both the outrage, and the unrest to grant themselves even more power. This trend has remained constant over the past few years, and likely will result in even more kinetic actions (and draconian “laws”) in the near future. Public outrage is usually temporary, however intense it may seem at the time. Laws, however, tend to outlast the outrage and remain concerning long into the future.