S2 Underground

//The Wire//1800Z June 14, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI TARGETING AGAIN INTENSIFIES IN THE RED SEA. SAUDI CROWN PRINCE CANCELS ATTENDANCE OF G7 SUMMIT. PUTIN PUBLICIZES TERMS OF POTENTIAL UKRAINE PEACE TALKS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting increases with two major incidents occurring over the past few days. Yesterday, three ASCMs successfully targeted the M/V VERBENA in the Gulf of Aden, causing severe damage. CENTCOM confirmed that at least one crew member was medically evacuated from the VERBENA due to wounds sustained during the attack.

On Wednesday, Houthi forces successfully targeted the M/V TUTOR, a Greek-flagged cargo vessel (carrying coal) in the Red Sea. This attack was carried out via an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) and resulted in the TUTOR sustaining severe damage to the engine room. Per the latest reports, the vessel is experiencing severe flooding, and is reportedly not under command at this time. However, her current status remains unclear.

AC: These attacks come as a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report was released yesterday confirming that maritime traffic through the Red Sea has decreased by approximately 90% since Houthi targeting began.

Middle East: Tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia quietly increase following various diplomatic slights over the past few weeks. Last week, the 1974 petrodollar agreement between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. allegedly expired, with no replacement treaty scheduled to take effect. AC: While the 1974 agreement is legitimate, it’s not clear as to if a 50-year expiration date is indeed contained within the text of the agreement. Regardless of the formalization of such a specific expiration date, the opportunity not being taken to renew Saudi-US relations during such a critical time in both nation’s histories speaks volumes.

Notwithstanding the formalization of such poor relations, the Saudis have been trading in oil using non-USD currencies for some time now (most famously including the recent unconfirmed claims of OPEC shifting to the Chinese Yuan). This recent diplomatic spat continues the already apparent shift in the diplomatic status between the two nations, and probably will result in more OPEC+ member states shifting away from the United States and more favorably in the direction of BRICS+.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia has more directly signaled increasing dissatisfaction with the U.S. via Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) abruptly canceling his attendance of the G7 summit currently underway in Italy. AC: MBS was scheduled to be a critical attendee of the summit (as Italy seeks to improve relations with the Middle East, and court various trade agreements that have been in the works for months). However, he canceled his trip just a few hours before he was supposed to arrive in Rome, citing pressing duties to oversee the Hajj season (which is a poorly-camouflaged excuse, as his attendance is not required for this holiday season, which has likewise been scheduled for many months). This G7 summit would have been his first attendance as he increasingly takes over the duties of the Saudi empire.

Europe: In a televised press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly stated the conditions for a peace proposal in Ukraine.

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Analyst Comments: Though the publicity of Putin’s proposal may be surprising to some, this is probably Russia’s last warning before the summer offensive comes to fruition. Though Putin’s demands may seem unfair to the West (the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, along with dropping Ukraine’s NATO bid), Ukraine is almost certainly not in a position to offer much flexibility in negotiations (if they were to occur). Consequently, this may be the best deal Ukraine is likely to get. Despite the hubris of the

//The Wire//1400Z June 13, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PEACE TALKS HESITANTLY CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST. CHINESE ACTIVITIES CONTINUE IN TAIWAN STRAIT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Peace talks again remain uncertain as Israel, Hamas, and the United States continue to work through the latest round of peace talks. Though an agreement has not been formally met at this time, all parties have responded positively to the latest US-led proposals. In the North, combat actions along the Israeli/Lebanese border continue to intensify on both sides.

In Iraq, a significant fire is burning at the oil refinery complex in Erbil. AC: Initial unconfirmed reports suggest the fire may have been caused by a successful attack by insurgents.

Far East: Chinese incursions in the Taiwan Strait continue. Overnight, 23 aircraft and 7 vessels were detected conducting operations in the vicinity of Taiwan. AC: Months ago this would have been out of the ordinary, but now that the baseline has shifted to normalize increasing numbers of aircraft incursions and naval operations this is a reminder of how a slow increase in forces over time can be operationally effective.

-HomeFront-

Washington: An incident at the FBI headquarters in Seattle prompted substantial police action following reports of an armed individual inside the building. The incident (possibly a mental health crisis) was resolved after some time without injury.

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Analyst Comments: A significant escalation to watch out for is the increase of Israeli combat actions in Lebanon. An increasingly likely scenario that most power-players are concerned with in the region is what a peace deal with Hamas might mean for Netanyahu, who likely seeks to do everything he can to save his government. Consequently, the question remains: If peace is achieved with Hamas, will Netanyahu shift the war to the north, continuing the fight with Hezbollah? Though the chance of this is uncertain, it remains a possibility. Especially considering that even the White House has openly and repeatedly accused Netanyahu of making poor tactical decisions so as to continue the war (and thus save his own political career). As such, if Israel decides to shift the fight to the north into Lebanon more directly, this would be yet another escalation in a time of exceptionally intense international relations.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1930Z June 12, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RUSSIAN AND NATO EXERCISES CONTINUE IN CARIBBEAN AND BALTIC SEA RESPECTIVELY. DOMESTIC HOMELAND THREATS CONTINUE TO MOUNT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Caribbean: The previously announced Russian naval exercise continues in Cuban waters as planned.

Baltic Sea: The similarly-timed NATO exercise (BALTOPS 24) continues simultaneously to the Russian activities in the Caribbean. This year’s demonstration is the largest in the history of this routine naval exercise, with 20x NATO members contributing over 50 surface vessels to take part in maneuvers throughout the Baltic Sea.

-HomeFront-

North Carolina: Local media reports indicate that the FBI is investigating an attack on electrical infrastructure that occurred last week. Allegedly, small arms were used to target an electrical transformer in Durham County, which resulted in a power outage in Raleigh. AC: The location where the attack took place is a remote site in the vicinity of the 3900 block of Carpenter Pond Road, well outside of the typical bounds of small arms fire that is fairly routine in the well-known hotspots in Durham and Raleigh. The general area around this site is very high-income, with a major electrical substation being located only a few hundred yards away from the alleged attack location.

USA: Various mainstream media outlets have announced the arrest of at least 6x potential ISIS operatives in the United States, as part of a coordinated counterterrorism operation. All 6x suspects allegedly are from Tajikistan and obtained entry into the U.S. illegally via the southern border.

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Analyst Comments: As this information comes from closed-sources not made public by any media outlet, independent verification of these claims is not possible at this time. However, considering the tens of thousands of people that also exhibit terrorism concerns (along with the thousands placed on commercial flights with zero identity documents), only arresting 6 potential terrorists is merely a fraction of the total number of potential terror threats that authorities have confirmed are entering the United States daily.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2030Z June 11, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: VP OF MALAWI KILLED IN PLANE CRASH. STABBING ATTACK WOUNDS 4 AMERICANS IN CHINA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Malawi: A plane carrying Vice President Saulos Chilima crashed yesterday morning, killing all aboard the aircraft. The aircraft reportedly crashed in Chikangawa Forest due to low visibility caused by bad weather and foggy conditions. AC: Details regarding this incident are few and highly contradictory.

China: Four American citizens were stabbed in the city of Jilin. The four victims were part of an educational exchange program, and were visiting a public cultural site when the stabbing occurred. In addition to the four American casualties, at least one Chinese citizen was injured who attempted to intervene. The assailant was arrested at the scene, and the victims allegedly suffered non-life threatening wounds.

Germany: An assailant armed with a knife stabbed a man on a train near Saarbrücken train station Monday evening. AC: This attack is being treated by authorities as a random stabbing incident.

-HomeFront-

Delaware: Hunter Biden was convicted of three counts relating to his drug use while purchasing a firearm.

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Analyst Comments: The stabbing attack in China is being treated by all parties as an isolated incident, due to the extreme rarity of such attacks involving Americans in the region. However, as exchange programs with China often involve the American upper social classes, the possibility of more nefarious intent cannot be discounted. For instance, all four Americans were affiliated with Cornell College of Iowa (not Cornell University), and one of the victims is the brother of Iowa state representative Adam Zabner.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z June 10, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: DENMARK PM SHOVED IN COPENHAGEN. POLITICAL TENSIONS RISE AMID ELECTIONS IN EUROPE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Denmark: Local reports indicate Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was assaulted in Copenhagen on Saturday. AC: Though the PM’s office has refused to provide a name or the description of the assailant, local eyewitness testimony suggests this may not have been a targeted attack. The man was allegedly walking in the opposite direction, “shoulder checked” the PM, and continued walking until her security detail apprehended him. Based on these details it’s possible that the man didn’t know who she was (and therefore was just socially impolite), or otherwise was simply interested in pursuing random street violence.

Europe: Over the weekend, the European Parliament election results have caused significant ire throughout the continent due to allegedly far-right (by European standards) candidates or parties expanding their held seats throughout the continent.

In France, President Macron has dissolved Parliament and called for a snap election in a bid to keep control amid his opponents’ rising (and already dominating) support. In Germany, Chancelor Scholz was dealt a similar blow as the AfD party won out over 16% of the vote, up from 11% in 2019.

AC: Though an elective body completely foreign to the United States, the European Parliamentary elections can sometimes serve as indications and warnings of political leanings throughout Europe, especially if European citizens are exceptionally unsatisfied.

Much of the political turmoil mounting around the world surrounds the issue of immigration (legal or not), which has become a very important consideration for voters in 2024. By American standards, this latest European Parliament election resulted in what Americans may refer to as a “red wave”, with conservatives sweeping many seats. However, it also must be noted that by American standards, many of the conservative parties central to Europe are not entirely conservative on issues that may be important to voters.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – Over the weekend, pro-Palestine supporters (along with self-described Hamas supporters) conducted their latest “direct action” event at the White House. Taking cues from previous far-left organized demonstrations, pro-Palestine demonstrations are becoming less and less organic.

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Analyst Comments: As the protest season ramps up in the United States, it’s important to consider that mission creep has likely taken place with regards to the Palestinian issue…mission creep which probably has a few origins and explanations. For instance, various funding sources will seek to de-legitimize the issue itself by funding demonstrations that are increasingly hostile to an American audience. In the beginning, pro-Palestine demonstrations could have appealed to common American social norms and mores by expressing legitimate concerns. However at this point, the staunchly pro-Jihad/anti-American nature of the protests is so out-of-touch with the measures needed to gain support with the average American that it’s probably intentional in some situations and locales. Out of all of the legitimate complaints Palestinian supporters could be raising, the majority of pro-Palestine demonstrations usually take on the characteristics of being politically far-left rallies against civilization at large. If the goal of this was to delegitimize the Palestinian cause, that mission has fairly well been accomplished as many Americans have become fatigued with the entire conflict. However, whether the situation is best represented by Israel amplifying content showing the bad behavior of various “Palestinian” supporters with the goal of de-legitimizing their issues, or if the situation is simply many Palestine supporters revealing their true goals ove

 00:00 - Southeast Region 
03:56 - Western Europe 
07:52 - Eastern Europe 
10:16 - GhostNet Reports 
11:50 - Closing Thoughts 

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//The Wire//1930Z June 7, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CONFLICT REMAINS TENSE IN MIDDLE EAST. RUSSIA DEPLOYS BLACK SEA FLEET.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East: Early indications and warnings of an Israeli operation in the North are mounting. Over the past few weeks, both Hezbollah and Israel have increased targeting in the region, with each retaliation escalating slightly more than the strike before it. Consequently, various power-players throughout the region have taken an increased interest in this recent series of escalations, with the obvious concern that an unprecedented escalation may occur now that peace talks between Hamas and Israel are increasingly more likely (albeit without being certain just yet).

Caribbean: Russian forces will reportedly take part in a Naval exercise in Cuba next week. This deployment will reportedly involve at least three surface vessels and one submarine.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Russian exercises such as those recently announced for Cuba are not entirely uncommon, occurring every few years or especially during times of heightened international tensions when Russia seeks to pressure the United States. However, it must be noted that other indications and warnings are increasing with regards to Russian naval activity. Recent satellite imagery indicates that Russian vessels of the Black Sea Fleet have departed from their berths in Novorossiysk. Between June 3rd and June 6th, a substantial portion of the Black Sea Fleet put to sea. What this movement means is anyone’s guess, however such a substantial deployment is likely not without good reason.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2030Z June 6, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SOUTH KOREA RELEASES BALLOONS NORTHWARD. U.S. CARRIES OUT SECOND ICBM TEST.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Far East: The border dispute on the Korean peninsula continues following various NGO’s in South Korea launching leaflet balloons in retaliation for North Korea’s initial balloon launch. AC: So far, both the North and South are likely content with low-level diplomatic conflict, however considering the context of rising global tensions any escalation of old conflicts has the potential to become more serious very quickly.

-HomeFront-

California: The United States has carried out a test launch of a Minuteman III ICBM this morning. AC: This is the second such test of this missile system within the past couple of days. Both tests were carried out via launches from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, splashing down at a test site in the Marshall Islands. The June 6th test carried one reentry vehicle, while the earlier June 4th test involved an unarmed missile.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Carrying out two ICBM tests within two days of each other is rare, however fully expected due to the exceptionally high diplomatic tensions present around the world.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z June 5, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MAJOR CELLULAR SERVICE OUTAGE STRIKES MULTIPLE INDEPENDENT CARRIERS. NEAR-MISS OF CARGO SHIP INVOLVES CHARLESTON BRIDGE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Europe: Various media outlets throughout the region report that Ukraine has reportedly begun to strike targets in Russia with American munitions. AC: No further details are available on the specifics of American munition use, however the gravity of the open admission of such targeting will likely result in Russia enabling similar logistical support for American adversaries in the various other ongoing conflicts around the world.

-HomeFront-

South Carolina: This afternoon the Ravenel Bridge in Charleston was briefly shut down to cross-traffic due to a cargo ship reportedly losing control of propulsion in the vicinity of the bridge. Local authorities revealed in a press conference this afternoon that a container vessel experienced an issue by which the ships throttle became stuck at nearly maximum speed. As a result of the mechanical issue, the vessel declared an emergency, triggering the shutdown of the bridge. After a few minutes, the crew was able to regain control of the vessel, avoiding a potential collision. Two boaters in small craft were injured due the wake of the vessel causing their boats to run aground on breakwaters at the entrance of the harbor. The vessel remains at anchor a few miles outside Charleston harbor as the USCG investigates the cause of the incident.

AC: Due to the obvious apprehension surrounding critical infrastructure around the nation, great scrutiny has been placed on incidents like this, however this situation appears to have concluded without any negative consequences. The vessel officially has not been named as of the draft of this report, but local witnesses strongly indicate the vessel was the M/V MSC MICHIGAN VII.

USA: AT&T, Verizon, and US Cellular experienced varying outages throughout the country yesterday evening. At the peak of the service interruptions, around 24 states were reporting issues with cell service on these networks, to include FirstNet systems. Additionally, Consumer Cellular (who’s service is provided by AT&T) was also affected by the outage.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: So far, the cause of the nationwide cellular outage is not clear; no statement has been released indicating the root cause of the service interruptions. Unlike the last major AT&T outage, an outage affecting at least three totally separate and independent companies is highly suspect.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2130Z June 4, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CYBERATTACK STRIKES LONDON HOPSITAL NETWORK. CONFLICT CONTINUES TO ESCALATE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND LEBANON.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

United Kingdom: Several London hospitals have declared a critical incident following a cyberattack. Various hospitals using services provided by Synnovis were affected by the cyberattack, which mostly affected data systems used for documenting blood transfusions. AC: Though cyberattacks are to be expected during the lead up to an election (the U.K. general election being scheduled for July 4th), local media are reporting that emergency services were affected by the cyberattack, not just outpatient facilities or systems used for non-emergency care. As such, this incident is a sober reminder that emergency and trauma centers are (for the most part) not hardened against cyber events that degrade systems capabilities.

Middle East: The conflict in Gaza continues as before. In northern Israel, a substantial wildfire broke out threatening residences along the Lebanese border. This follows weeks of targeting in Lebanon, and a general increase in combat conditions along the border.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In typical fashion, contradictory claims have been made regarding the origin of the fire along the Israel/Lebanon border. Hezbollah claims Israeli White Phosphorous munitions caused the blaze, whereas Israel claims rockets fired by Hezbollah caused the fire. Regardless of the cause, this incident highlights growing tensions between Israel and Lebanon, which have been exacerbated by increasing combat operations in the border regions of both nations, lending apprehension as to how a potential ceasefire in Gaza may affect the growing conflict in the north.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//