S2 Underground

//The Wire//1830Z May 23, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MAJOR CHINESE EXERCISES BEGIN IVO TAIWAN. NORTH CAROLINA SHOOTING HIGHLIGHTS INCREASED THREAT ENVIRONMENT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Far East: This morning China announced major exercises in the waters around Taiwan. China’s exercise (Joint Sword-2024A) has so far involved a handful of ships carrying out demonstrations and joint maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait. AC: A few days ago, Lai Ching-te was sworn in as Taiwan’s President. As such, this exercise almost certainly related to political events in Taiwan. Nevertheless, Taiwanese forces have responded in kind, deploying substantial defenses (such as mobile ASCM launchers) at critical locations around the island.

-HomeFront-

North Carolina: Local media has become aware of a suspicious shooting incident that took place earlier this month. Originally kept quiet due to the investigation, details were released last night surrounding a shooting death involving a Special Operations soldier in Moore County. On May 3rd, local authorities were dispatched to a residence in Carthage in response to a trespassing complaint. Allegedly, the 911 caller also noted that the individual was taking pictures of their residence. After some time, an altercation occurred resulting in the trespassing individual being shot multiple times after allegedly becoming aggressive. Local authorities have identified the man who was shot and killed as Ramzan Daraev. The shooter’s name has been withheld for the moment, but has been identified as a member of the Special Operations community.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The details of the Moore County shooting raise many red flags. Originally, Daraev was said to be an employee of Utilities One, a local electrical utility subcontractor. However at the time of the shooting he was located hundreds of feet onto the caller’s property, was not wearing a uniform, and did not have any identification or equipment suggesting any official work for a utility company. Local media claims Daraev was from Chicago, however he was originally born in Chechnya. This is supported by the foreign identity documents that were reportedly found at the scene. Furthermore, some media sources claim that an accomplice fled the scene in a rental car following the shooting. As this is a developing incident that took place in a highly sensitive community, there is absolutely more to this story than meets the eye.

As a reminder, a very common tactic for foreign intelligence agents is to obtain employment with an entity that grants semi-legitimate access to sensitive locations, such as private residences within a well-known Special Operations community.

Factoring in other trends, and with the understanding that examining events of this magnitude and secrecy must rely on quite a bit of speculation, the tens of thousands of military aged males entering the southern border daily have highlighted the clear and present dangers to American society. It has become extremely clear over the past few months that foreign intelligence activities on U.S. soil have reached heights reminiscent of (and almost certainly surpassing) the height of the Cold War.

Considering the 2022 mysterious electrical substation attack in the exact same area as the recent Moore County shooting, it is likely that the shadow war on American soil is continuing to escalate to include targeting the personal lives and family members of the Special Operations community.

Incidents surrounding security breaches at U.S. military bases have also quietly been increasing over the past few months. For instance, Marine Corps Base Quantico quietly revealed that on May 3rd, the same day as the Moore County shooting, two Jordanian nationals attempted to breach the main gate while driving a box truck. Allegedly, one of the individuals detained in this incident was on a known terror

//The Wire//2130Z May 22, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: U.S. TAPS NORTHEAST GASOLINE RESERVE. U.K. PM CALLS FOR NEW ELECTIONS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

United Kingdom: PM Rishi Sunak has called for a snap election, scheduled to take place on July 4th.

-HomeFront-

California – Yesterday a judge dismissed the criminal felony convictions of five former Navy officers as part of the infamous “Fat Leonard” corruption scandal. All five officers had admitted to, and were convicted of, receiving bribes as part of the 2013 investigation. AC: The Fat Leonard corruption scandal is one of the most widely-documented and infamous cases of military corruption to strike the Pentagon within recent memory. Allegedly, these convictions were dismissed at the request of the U.S. government, however this cannot be independently confirmed at this time with any certainty.

Washington D.C. – The White House authorizes the release of 1 million barrels of gasoline from the Northeast Strategic Reserve allegedly to combat high gas prices.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: This strategic reserve release (amid reports of a highly kinetic hurricane season looming) is probably intended to remove strategic assets rather than reduce gas prices. Gas prices during this year’s Memorial Day travel weekend are unlikely to be affected much by a strategic release either. Per the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), last year the United States averaged using around 376 million gallons of gasoline per day. For perspective and scale, the release of one million barrels (42 million gallons) from a strategic reserve could fuel the United States’ gasoline requirements for a little over 2.6 hours.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1700Z May 21, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ICC CONSIDERS ARREST WARRANTS FOR ISRAELI AND HAMAS OFFICIALS. DETAILS OF IRANIAN HELO CRASH REMAIN CONTRADICTORY.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Iran: Details continue to become contradictory following the helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. New Iranian press statements have indicated that at least two other helicopters were involved in the incident to some degree…the collection of VIPs were not traveling in one lone helicopter as initially claimed by Iranian media (and some western sources). However, it is not clear as to if these helicopters were flying as an assembled flight, or if there was some separation of time between each of the aircraft’s transit south through the valley to Tabriz.

The Hague: The lead prosecutor for the International Criminal Court (ICC) has recommended the issuance of arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanhayu and Defense Minister Gallant, as well as Hamas commander in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar. The ICC will now hear evidence to determine if arrest warrants shall be issued.

Singapore: One passenger was killed, and many others injured during an extreme turbulence event on a routine flight between London and Singapore. Singapore Airlines Flight SQ321 experienced substantial turbulence as the long-haul flight neared the coast of Thailand. Following the extreme turbulence, the aircraft made an emergency landing in Thailand. AC: As the turbulence occurred unexpectedly, little warning was given to passengers, causing at least 30 passengers to suffer varying injuries to include a few cases of severe blunt force trauma. This incident did result in one fatality, but it is not clear as to if this occurred as a direct result of trauma due to the kinetic turbulence, or due to an underlying medical issue. The deceased passenger has not yet been identified by the airline.

New Caledonia: Australia and New Zealand have reportedly begun repatriation flights for their citizens located on the former French Colony. Violence continues as France deploys increasing numbers of forces to the region to maintain order.

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Overnight, Congolese forces allegedly halted a coup attempt, arresting possibly two Americans who allegedly planned to support and coordinate the efforts of a local guerrilla group. AC: So far, it’s too soon to tell if this is a legitimate coup attempt, or something else entirely. Two people are unlikely to overthrow anyone singlehandedly, but this would also not be the first time that a spy got caught engaging in espionage. Nor would it be out of the question for the local warlords of the DRC to grab a westerner and fabricate a story to consolidate power. As there are far too many variables and far too few reliable information sources in the region, the truth of this incident is unlikely to come forth for the time being.

-HomeFront-

South Carolina: The South Carolina Port Authority has announced that yesterday’s software issue has been resolved, and all terminals are resuming operations. No further details have been provided as to the specific cause of this outage.

Washington D.C. – H.R. 8445 has been introduced in Congress. This bill would amend U.S. Title 38 and the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act to expand eligibility of all military servicemember benefits to any American citizen serving in the Israeli Defense Forces. Per the text of the bill as provided by the bill’s sponsor, “the service of a citizen of the United States in the Israeli Defense Forces shall be treated in the same manner as service in the uniformed services.”. AC: This appears to be the first and only time (at least in U.S. history) whereby a nation is considering granting military servicemember benefits to those in the military service of a foreign nation. As such, it’s not certain how this situation will develop or if other f

//The Wire//2200Z May 20, 2024//

//PRIORITY//

//BLUF: IRANIAN PRESIDENT KILLED IN HELICOPTER CRASH. SAUDI KING HOSPITALIZED WITH INFECTION. SOUTH CAROLINA PORTS OFFLINE DUE TO CYBER ISSUE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Iran: Yesterday a helicopter carrying the Iranian President (and other VIPs) crashed in the mountains just north of Tavil. According to Iranian state media, one of the survivors was able to make a distress call via satellite phone before contact was lost. Upon notification of the incident, a neighboring Turkish military drone was dispatched to conduct an aerial search of the extremely remote terrain just south of the Iran/Azerbaijan border. The Turkish drone identified a large heat signature IVO grid: 38SPH4703992367. Ground search crews later identified this location as the crash site. No survivors were found at the site, and Iranian state media has confirmed the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, among others.

Saudi Arabia: Saudi state media confirmed that King Salman has been hospitalized following a recent illness. AC: Though reports are contradictory, King Salman has possibly been hospitalized due to pneumonia and/or a more general respiratory infection. Due to contradicting reports, it’s not clear as to if King Salman is currently hospitalized, or if he was merely examined at a hospital as an outpatient. Regardless, this is his second hospitalization in less than a month. As a reminder, King Salman handed over most royal duties to his son, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, a few years ago. However, King Salman still wields considerable status throughout the Middle East, in similar fashion to most aging monarchs that have provided an air of generational stability throughout the continent for decades. If King Salman’s health is declining, this could signal a new era of instability as the world seeks to test the Crown Prince as he fully steps into the role of monarch.

Slovakia: Various governmental ministers have indicated that Prime Minister Fico’s situation is improving, and that the most serious risks to his life have been averted. However, it will take more time to determine his overall condition, due to the continuing severity of his wounds.

Burkina Faso: Various anti-establishment media channels reported another attack on Captain Ibrahim Traoré’s residence Saturday night. Multiple gunmen conducted small arms attacks at the main gate of the Presidential Palace in Ouagadougou. AC: It’s not clear as to if this was a substantial attack, or a shoot-and-shoot style skirmish. This is at least the 6th attempt on Captain Ibrahim’s life since seizing power two years ago.

Red Sea/HOA: Over the weekend, Houthi forces successfully struck another oil tanker, the M/V WIND. Per CENTCOM’s statements Saturday night, coalition vessels responded to the WIND’s distress call as the WIND had lost steering and was taking on water. After a few hours, the crew was able to restore functionality and egress from the area under her own power.

-HomeFront-

South Carolina: A collection of ports have been shut down temporarily following undisclosed software issues. The South Carolina Port Authority originally stated this morning that cargo terminals would only be offline for a few hours, however the timeline for recovery has been pushed back multiple times today. AC: It is unclear as to if this software issue is affecting all South Carolina ports, or just the main North Charleston Terminal. In any case, cargo on and offloading has come to a halt while the issue is being mitigated.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Many technical details surrounding the Iranian helicopter crash do not fit within known Iranian military doctrine, or otherwise do not make sense. Based on the aerial imagery provided by Iranian media after search crews located the cras

00:00 - Southwestern Region 
03:12 - Western Region 
09:12 - Eastern Europe 
18:01 - Far East 
25:01 - GhostNet Reports

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//The Wire//1800Z May 17, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PM FICO REMAINS IN SERIOUS CONDITION. RUSSIA ANNOUNCES, IMMEDIATELY CANCELS NOTAM OFF CALIFORNIA COAST.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Slovakia: PM Robert Fico remains in serious condition following multiple surgeries since his assassination attempt. Local sources claim his condition remains uncertain, and that it will take several more days before his outcome becomes more clear.

-HomeFront-

Texas: The Pelican Island Causeway Bridge remains closed pending safety inspections. No timeline has been given for its reopening or repair.

California: Yesterday afternoon, the Russian Federation announced (via NOTAM) an area that would be host to rocket activity in international waters, approximately 500nm off the coast of Los Angeles. The notice (A1922/24) went active yesterday, and at the time of posting would be active until May 26. However, as of this morning, the NOTAM has been canceled per the Defense Internet NOTAM Service (DINS) portal.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: As to the original reason for the Russian NOTAM, few details were provided in the initial notice (which is typical). It could have been to designate the debris field for a Russian space launch, but the language in the initial notice was not typical of such launches and indicated a more military use. On the other hand, the factors provided equally support a space launch, which are frequently rescheduled due to weather (and thus changing the expected booster debris field location).

However, if a Russian military missile launch was planned, announced, and abruptly canceled within a few hours, this would be par for the course with regards to the current strategic tensions between the United States and Russia.

As a reminder, Russia did almost exactly the same in 2022 off the coast of Ireland. Missile drills were announced, planned, then abruptly canceled without comment from Russia. As such, while Russian activities in international waters are generally concerning power-projection moves, the far more concerning military activities are those which are not announced in advance. More strategically, even though virtually zero information is made public regarding the detection of Russian submarines close to American waters, an observable increase in U.S. Navy ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) aircraft has been noted throughout the Atlantic over the past few months. It is very challenging to discern training operations or routine patrols from real-world sub-hunting activity; sometimes the only indicator is a lone P-3C Orion or P-8A Poseidon ASW aircraft flying out to sea, out of range of ADS-B trackers, only to return a few hours later with most Americans none the wiser as to their activities. However, considering the extremely tense situation throughout Europe (especially the war in Ukraine), it only makes sense for Russia to have stepped up clandestine power-projection activities close to America’s borders…and for the United States to quietly be doing likewise.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2030Z May 16, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SLOVAKIAN PM IN SERIOUS CONDITION FOLLOWING ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT. DOMESTIC CONFLICT BEGINS IN NEW CALEDONIA.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Slovakia: Local media reports that PM Fico’s condition is still very serious, and it is not yet clear as to if he will survive the assassination attempt. The attacker has been identified as Juraj Cintula, a 71 year old far-left poet of local notoriety for being heavily involved in anti-government rallies. Cintula’s wife has allegedly also been arrested by authorities in connection with the attack. 

Far East: Chinese incursion flights in the Taiwan Strait continue. 27x PLA aircraft, 7x PLAN vessels were detected operating in the Strait last night. AC: Again falling short of a major imminent wartime indicator, these incursions are taking place during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to China.

South Pacific: Mass violence and riots have broken out in the French territory of New Caledonia following a potential change of the electoral system that locals say will increase French power in the former colony. Hundreds of police have been deployed throughout the island as curfews and other restrictions on movement take effect.

-HomeFront-

Texas: Yesterday morning, an oil barge collided with a bridge in Galveston after its tow line parted. The barge collapsed a portion of the rail line on the Pelican Island Causeway Bridge, and the bridge will be out of action pending safety inspections.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Though all eyes are rightfully attentive to critical infrastructure events, tow lines parting and/or mooring lines slipping is a fairly common occurrence throughout America’s waterways. Though the details of this incident are few (like most maritime accidents/incidents), this collision is likely not on the scale of previous disasters. The Pelican Island Causeway Bridge was in bad shape before the incident. The bridge doesn’t host much traffic regularly, and the rail line (which collapsed as a result of the collision) had been out of service for some time due to the aging bridge. However, this bridge is the only way on or off Pelican Island, so the local population of 9,000 people (and the Texas A&M campus on the island) will be affected by the bridge being closed while it is being inspected for damage.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1630Z May 15, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SLOVAKIAN PM SHOT, IN SERIOUS CONDITION. PLA ACTIVITY INCREASES IN TAIWAN STRAIT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Slovakia: Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot multiple times by a gunman on the street following a meeting in Handlová. The assailant was detained at the scene IVO grid coordinate: 34UCU3523199538. Per governmental press statements, PM Fico is in serious condition after being airlifted to the university hospital in Banská Bystrica. AC: Flying to the nearest local trauma center instead of back to higher level care in the opposite direction (as the crow flies) in the capital city of Bratislava indicates the severity of Fico’s wounds.

Far East: Last night, Taiwanese Defense Forces detected 6 PLAN ships and 45x PLA aircraft operating in the Taiwan Strait. This follows the 23x PLA aircraft detected the previous day.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – The White House has announced another round of foreign aid packages. Reportedly, Ukraine will get another $2 billion and Israel another $1 billion, both in the form of military aid.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: PM Fico’s attempted assassination comes after months of statements critical of the World Economic Forum, COVID vaccination, and the Ukrainian war. Last month, Fico’s government halted military aid to Ukraine, triggering mass protests throughout the nation.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2030Z May 14, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RUSSIAN MOD CHANGES. HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN RANGE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Russia: MoD Sergei Shoigu has transitioned into a new role as Secretary of the Russian Security Council, following his service as Defense Minister for over a decade. AC: Sources vary widely in even the description of this transition. Western media sources claim Shoigu was fired (or promoted out of the way), whereas pro-Russian sources claim he was promoted into a more substantial and strategic position. Either way, this move is significant as any personnel change (especially at high levels within the defense industry) signals a change in stance, policy, intent, and strategy. However, only time will tell which of these factors Shoigu’s positional change is indicative of.

Georgia: Discontent continues to grow in Tbilisi following weeks of protests. Thousands of protesters demonstrated outside governmental buildings in the capital city over the weekend. AC: As a reminder, these demonstrations are largely in response to Georgia’s parliament potentially adopting a new law which is perceived as granting more power to government to crack down on dissent. However, supporters of the bill claim it will reduce western influence as the bill will require media organizations and NGOs to register as foreign agents if over 20% of their funding originates from outside of Georgia.

Red Sea/HOA: Attacks on commercial shipping continue as Houthi forces demonstrate increasing targeting capabilities.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: A few weeks ago, the M/V MSC ORION was targeted by Houthi forces with virtually zero comment from western media sources or official maritime agencies. However, over the past few days the reasoning behind this lack of coverage (or even confirmation of the attack) has become apparent…at the time of the attack the MSC ORION was roughly 800 miles off the coast of Yemen. A successful drone attack this far from Houthi territory signals a significant increase in Houthi capabilities (though the indicators of these capabilities have been present since the conflict began, via other similar incidents that likewise received little attention from the west). Consequently, several maritime security firms and organizations are recommending commercial shipping give Yemeni waters an even wider berth with regards to what has become the main shipping route for western-affiliated companies, the Cape of Good Hope shipping corridor.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//

//The Wire//1600Z May 13, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: CHINA FLEXES MUSCLE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA. PROTESTS CONTINUE AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITIES.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Far East: Tensions rise in the South China Sea following Chinese military activities in the region. Last Thursday (and somewhat continuing over the weekend), 11x Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered the territorial waters of Kinmen Island in a sharp escalation within the waters of Taiwan’s outlying island county. In the south, conflict with the Philippines has reignited following PLAN vessels both blockading Scarborough Shoal again, and indicating interest in Sabina Shoal (another potential site for China to create another artificial island).

-HomeFront-

USA: Demonstrations at universities continue with varying impact around the nation. Most encampment operations have been shut down at Ivy League institutions, but some persistent demonstrations/protests remain.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: The tensions in the South China Sea are above the typical baseline for the region, but fall short of exhibiting major immediate wartime indicators. However, it must be noted that China’s activities to increase the baseline of observable activity are a wartime goal; normalizing the militarization of the region is a valuable strategic advantage for China. As such, China will likely seek to continue expansion in the South China Sea, to the ire of other nations such as the Philippines. Of note, Germany has committed two additional ships to the region, and U.S. Navy freedom-of-navigation patrols have increased in response to China’s activities.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//