S2 Underground

RR The Wire 2300Z November 01, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 230001Z NOV 23

ICOD: 223001Z NOV 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES ADVANCE INTO GAZA. CASUALTIES MOUNT ON ALL SIDES.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: Israel continues to take casualties in their advance on Gaza City as Information Operations from both sides obfuscate the situation on the ground. Demonstrations throughout Israel intensify as Israelis protest in opposition to the invasion of Gaza. So far, most counter-government protests have been swiftly put down by authorities.

In the South, Israeli forces have engaged in a western advance to the sea, and are expected to reach the beach by tomorrow. This maneuver will result in the isolation of Gaza City into a northern pocket, and allow a south-north advance from central Gaza into Gaza City. AC: This will also effectively cut off any evacuation south for the millions of Palestinians who have not been able to leave Gaza City. It is not clear as to if Israel will allow fleeing civilians through their lines to the south, but this is unlikely for now as the situation remains highly dynamic.

Western Asia: Pakistan begins the process of deporting hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees who fled the country following the Taliban takeover two years ago. Last month, Pakistan announced that by Nov 1, all undocumented persons within the country would be deported. An estimated 1.7 million Afghan refugees currently reside in Pakistan and are facing deportation.

-Analyst Comments-

Israeli forces themselves have claimed “heavy casualties”, but it is not clear as to what Israel considers to be heavy casualties. Though statistics are impossible to verify, the IDF has publicly declared 16 casualties since the invasion of Gaza began. By contrast, roughly 10,000 Palestinian casualties have been reported since the start of this conflict. Note that Palestinian civilian casualties are difficult to discern from Hamas casualties. However, since militants are seeking refuge in long-established tunnels deep underground, the overwhelming majority of casualties in Gaza so far have been civilians.

Rumors are circulating on social media alleging Iran’s direct involvement in the Israeli War is to begin soon. So far, there are few indications that Iran’s actions are anything more than saber-rattling responses to Israel’s actions in Gaza. Most Arab States are preparing for this conflict to escalate, but all of this hinges on Israel’s actions in Gaza. If Israel continues to strike civilian centers, the excuse of Hamas using “human shields” is not an argument that is going to cut it with most of the world. As such, high-profile airstrikes resulting in substantial CIVCAS are likely to warrant a response from Middle Eastern nations that so far, have been biding their time.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2300Z October 31, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 230031Z OCT 23

ICOD: 223031Z OCT 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: YEMENI ATTACKS ON ISRAEL INTENSIFY. ISRAEL TAKES HEAVY CASUALTIES, MAKES SLOW PROGRESS IN NORTHERN GAZA.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: The first few days of the Israeli invasion of Gaza have resulted in fierce resistance, and slow progress. Video evidence indicates Hamas has regularly and effectively targeted Israeli MBTs, IFVs, and APCs during the advance. Israeli DM Gallant confirms via press conference that IDF has suffered heavy losses, though the exact numbers of casualties/losses is unknown.

Missile attacks from Yemen have increased following the declaration of War issued by the rebel-held government sector. It is difficult to determine the effectiveness (or existence) of many of these extremely long-range attacks; many reports of random missile impacts in Israel have been reported without any indication of a point of origin.

Earlier today, IDF officials claimed responsibility for a substantial airstrike on the Jabalia Refugee Camp in Northern Gaza. IDF officials claim the strike was targeting one Hamas leader, and many civilian casualties have been reported.

Elon Musk’s claims of Starlink support for Gaza backtrack as he claims that Starlink will only be provided for Gaza after investigation and permission from the US and Israel is granted. It is unclear as to if connections and internet traffic will be monitored by Starlink to ensure that their services are only being used for humanitarian purposes. AC: Based on these conditions, in the remote chance someone has Starlink in Gaza, it is extraordinarily unlikely to be allowed to function. For information exchange, infrastructure that does not rely on Israeli or American resources would be the most reliable form of communication in and out of Gaza.

-Analyst Comments-

Israel’s battle plan appears to be centered around an invasion of Northern Gaza on all fronts, followed by a southern push to the Sinai. Whether or not Israel will be able to obtain these goals is unclear, as overwhelming rhetoric from Israeli officials has attempted to temper expectations and prepare for a long campaign. Per long-standing Israeli defense doctrine, Israel is likely expecting long-term logistical support from the US, as the IDF has already expended substantial munitions in this war so far. Per IDF officials the Iron Dome missile supply is running low, resulting in prioritizing defensive coverage of heavily populated areas.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2300Z October 30, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 230030Z OCT 23

ICOD: 223030Z OCT 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: FEW DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING GAZA GROUND INVASION. ISRAEL CONTINUES TARGETING IN GAZA.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: Israeli invasion of Gaza continues with little information regarding the progress of the advance. Information from the Palestinians has slowed to a crawl following comms blackouts, the lack of electricity, airstrikes, etc. Hamas has allegedly been engaged in significant combat actions in the North, though details from the front are not clear ATT. Hamas rocket attacks have remained fairly constant since the beginning of this war, but have increased in number immediately following substantial Israeli strikes, or strikes on facilities that would ordinarily be considered CAT 1 NSE (hospitals, schools, Mosques, community centers, etc).

This morning, Wikileaks released leaked internal IDF documents that suggest Israel is planning to expel the entire Palestinian population from Gaza, to be resettled in the Egyptian Sinai. Though these documents cannot be independently verified with 100% certainty ATT, these very early reports corroborate earlier analysis that indicates Israel is not seeking to stop at the destruction of Hamas, but is actually invested in the removal of all civilian Palestinians from Gaza.

-HomeFront-

USA: In Maine, the circumstances regarding the death of Robert Card remain unclear. Since the finding of his body, much information in the public sphere has been speculatory. Initial reports that Card suffered two GSW to the head remain unprovable. However, as authorities have total control over evidence Chain of Custody, and since authorities have not released any substantial details at all, MSM reporting remains the only sources for most of the information that is public.

-Analyst Comments-

As the Israeli war in Gaza continues, much of the media coverage has focused on atrocity, with both sides seeking to dominate the information space. As such, knowledge of how military targeting works would be beneficial for making informed decisions.

Per JP 3-60, most western nations that abide by US Targeting doctrine are prohibited from striking hospitals, even if used by enemy forces. The Deliberate Targeting process comprises most of US kinetic targeting, and is a rigid data-centric process to ensure legal military targets are struck in accordance with military law. The Dynamic targeting process is an expedited process to be used mostly in situations of immediate self-defense, but is no less legally binding (and is limited in scope to only the munition required for self-defense). Israel is abiding by neither of these processes, and is striking targets that if held to current US military law, are illegal. Population density and the intricacies of point mensuration to develop Joint Desired Points of Impact (JDPIs) in the urban environment, mean that very few of Israel’s strikes conform to US or NATO law. Considering the US and NATO’s overwhelming support for Israel, and the assembly one of the largest military flotillas in NATO history throughout the region, this is an important factor to remember. Hamas, on the other hand, continues to adhere to an insurgent-style model, and does not possess any significant technology that would result in precision targeting. Hamas’ rocket attacks using unguided munitions, are by definition indiscriminate.

Regarding the Maine shooting and the fate of Robert Card, several MSM reports have quietly changed the headline of “two-GSW to the head” to “self-inflicted GSW”, indicating a quiet retraction of this crucial detail. In any case, the public is unlikely to know the truth of Card’s death, which is unfortunate considering the long trail of evidence suggesting Card’s actions were exceptionally predictable,

RR The Wire 1500Z October 28, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 150028Z OCT 23

ICOD: 140028Z OCT 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: ISRAELI ADVANCE MEETS HEAVY RESISTANCE IN NORTHERN GAZA. REGIONAL PLAYERS BEGIN INTENSIFYING CONFLICT.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: Information warfare takes center stage as all sides seek to amplify their gains, and downplay losses. Israeli forces have declared they are jamming much of the EM spectrum and spoofing GPS signals, resulting in some of the most significant EW effects seen in years.

Pro-Palestinian fighters have amassed on the Iraq/Jordan border in substantial numbers. Egyptian and Israeli fighter aircraft have reportedly engaged in foreign relations, with pilots using aggressive maneuvers towards each other over the border/waters between the two countries.

In Lebanon, the US Embassy urges all US citizens to immediately leave the country. Similar travel alerts are routinely being established by most European nations regarding much of the Middle East.

The UN General Assembly adopts a resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. In response, Israel’s Ambassador states that “the UN holds not even one ounce of legitimacy”.

Vodafone has announced that they are setting up emergency cell towers in Egypt, on the border with Gaza, with the intent to provide data services for those documenting combat actions within Gaza. Elon Musk requests any aid groups in Gaza to make contact with Starlink services, but as of now no ground terminal in Gaza has requested a satellite link.

-HomeFront-

USA: In Maine, Robert Card found dead following extensive search. Details are extremely limited, but he was reportedly found in a dumpster with two GSW to the head. NFI ATT.

-Analyst Comments-

Despite the sparse flow of information, it is possible that the Israeli advance slowed last night shortly after a multi-pronged assault into northern Gaza.

Hamas, claims the advance was halted due to their defensive efforts. Within a few minutes of this announcement, Israeli pundits/influencers claimed the halt in the North was voluntary, and that the “real attack” will occur at a different time and place. After a few hours, IDF officials have claimed that the start of the military operation has not yet been declared. Either way, speed will likely not be a deciding factor in this fight, and though video evidence indicates extremely intense fighting the losses from either side are not known.

None of the claims by either side will likely be verified within time for operational success to practically be gauged. By the time information becomes verified, it is Overcome by Events (OBE) and no longer relevant. What is more clear is that multiple assaults on Gaza are ongoing, and that statements from IDF officials claiming the assault hasn’t begun yet are likely gaslighting attempts intended to save face resulting from losses taken by heavy resistance. Amphibious landings have occurred in the West and armored and infantry advances in the North, East, and South. If this “not-yet-begun” conflict is a feint or a ruse, it is unclear as to where the “real” attack will take place, as Gaza is already being engaged on all fronts.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2000Z October 27, 2023

PRECEDENCE: PRIORITY PP

DTG: 200027Z OCT 23

ICOD: 193027Z OCT 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: THE ISRAELI INVASION OF GAZA HAS BEGUN.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: Intense bombardment of Gaza continues as Israeli armor is observed breaking through into northern Gaza. Conflict has broken out all along the Gaza border line, as well as in the West Bank. Hamas has issued statements that they are engaging Israeli tanks IVO al-Bureij camp.

Insurgent-controlled media claims US military bases in Kharab Al-Jir and at the al-Omar oil field in Syria are currently under attack. No independent verification of these reports can be made at this time.

Yesterday US forces conducted strikes on alleged Iranian proxy groups in Syria that were allegedly responsible for the attacks on US bases over the past few weeks.

-Analyst Comments-

Information regarding the invasion of Gaza will be hard to verify with any certainty. Additionally, most communications in and out of Gaza have been previously severed so very little information is known. Information regarding international strategic moves will be more reliable, but in a time of overwhelming information warfare, every detail is suspect.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2330Z October 26, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 233026Z OCT 23

ICOD: 230026Z OCT 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES LIMITED CLEARANCE OPERATIONS AS ROCKET ATTACKS INTENSIFY.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: Rocket attacks by Hamas intensify today as the Israeli bombing/shelling campaign in Gaza continues. Conflicting reports indicate possibly multiple MANPAD attacks on Israeli aircraft, with no success so far. No word on when the official invasion is set to begin, though Netanyahu has stated that the date has been set.

Russia: AFRF conduct the first major series of exercises testing nuclear response following the Russian Duma’s vote to de-ratify Russia’s commitment to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) earlier this month.

-HomeFront-

USA: Mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine leaves 18 dead and many more wounded. The only details regarding the suspect originate from LE officials. The suspect has been identified as SFC. Robert Card, USAR. According to LE officials, Card has a history of mental issues. He was recently taken for mental treatment following concerns among his reserve unit. The suspect remains at large and is considered armed and dangerous.

-Analyst Comments-

Israel may be attempting to test Hamas positions, and get a feel for the urban combat before the grand campaign begins. Israeli “probing attacks” into Gaza may also actually be a main assault, rather than recon-by-fire or some other skirmish. If this is plausible, when Israeli forces encounter suborn resistance, they can withdraw, regroup, and claim they never invaded in the first place, and that the real invasion is yet to come. Several attacks, and subsequent withdrawals have been observed in Gaza over the past few days, adding credence to this theory. Israeli politicians continuing to stress the long-term nature of this war may also by default add weight to this theory. On the other side of the wire, Hamas likely is suffering losses from Israeli strikes, but exactly how many losses is impossible for anyone to know.

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Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2330Z October 25, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 233025Z OCT 23

ICOD: 230025Z OCT 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: ISRAEL ALLEGEDLY DELAYS INVASION OF GAZA. POLITICAL TURMOIL CONTINUES IN THE US.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: Israel reports delaying the invasion of Gaza, reportedly due to US requests. The US allegedly wants to move more assets into the region, before the conflict expands substantially.

Egyptian state television reports have impressed the combat readiness of Egyptian troops, stating that Egypt is ready for an escalation. 

In the White House, dissention becomes more prevalent among government workers. Many of which are Jewish, and many of which support Palestine. This has reportedly caused behavioral issues and internal conflict among staff members, particularly in the DoS. As a result, DoS leadership has been hosting “listening sessions” with Muslim and Jewish employees as staffers from both sides lobby to influence DoS policy in their favor.

-HomeFront-

USA: Details emerge regarding the attempted hijacking of AS2059 indicating the hijacker was under the extreme influence of psychedelic mushrooms and was experiencing a psychological episode. This allegedly caused him to react unexpectedly, which resulted in him attempting to bring the plane down.

In Congress, Rep. Mike Johnson elected Speaker of the House. Johnson has stated that his first official action will be to introduce a resolution in support of Israel.

Donald Trump’s trial continues as he is fined $10,000 for allegedly violating a gag order that forbid him from showing photographic evidence of the conflict of interest arising from the judge presiding his current case employing a law clerk that has an intimate relationship with Sen. Chuck Schumer. AC: As a reminder, this is a civil trial, not criminal.

-Analyst Comments-

The psychological episode experienced on AS2059 is unusual, but highlights the vulnerabilities within supposedly secure institutions responsible for airline travel. As years of medical persecution have thinned the number of commercial airline pilots to alarmingly low numbers, incidents will likely continue to happen as the “bar is lowered” for critical jobs such as pilots, military service members, medical professionals, etc.

In the Middle East, the low trustworthiness of all parties involved in the Israeli conflict mean that the delay of the Gaza invasion could be for any number of reasons. As the element of surprise is nonexistent, and Palestinians have been expecting an Israeli invasion of this magnitude for decades, there is very little deception that Israel can use in order to reduce the combat effectiveness of Hamas fighters. The small size of the combat zone will almost certainly result in some of the most intense fighting seen in decades. Israeli, American, and NATO forces will likely be facing a multi-front war in which none of the players from the West currently have the hardware or the willing troops to wage war with. This has already resulted in some of the most substantial Information Operations conducted since 2019.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2330Z October 24, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233024Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230024Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL RAMPS UP BOMBING CAMPAIGN OF GAZA. US CONTINUES TO INCREASE POSTURE IN THE REGION.
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East Front: Israel has been observed to increase bombing campaign along the entire Gaza border. Israel continues bombing in the West Bank, and in Lebanon and Syria. Hamas and Hezbollah continue sporadic rocket attacks, targeting locations deep inside Israel. Clearance operations are reportedly underway in Jenin, West Bank. Israel has rejected all calls by the UN for a ceasefire, and has vowed to achieve the “total destruction” of Hamas.
CENTCOM confirms that so far two dozen US military personnel have been wounded in attacks on US military bases in the Middle East over the past few weeks. US DoS rhetoric indicates a potential mass evacuation campaign of USPER in the region. 
South America: Tensions flare between Venezuela and Guyana following a long-standing territorial dispute regarding mineral rights. Diplomats on both sides have warned their counterparts not to escalate the situation. However, the announcement of a public referendum in Venezuela on this issue (scheduled for December) has increased tensions in the region.
-HomeFront-
USA: Domestic politics remain tense following recent developments regarding the legal targeting of Trump associates, as well as citizens associated with the J6 event.
-Analyst Comments-
The DoS rhetoric of concern for the potential evacuation of over 600,000 Americans from the Middle East region is perplexing, as the logistical constraints alone make this an impossible feat. The presence of 2x CSGs and at least 1x MEU in the area or on the way, with potentially more amphibious capability available in the CENTCOM AOR is concerning, and hints of the US entering the conflict directly. US political rhetoric concerning Iran remains alarming, as US politicians continue to directly and openly call for war.
Tensions are mounting between Israel and the UN as Israeli forces continue to target Gaza, and by default, UN aid efforts. UN forces on the ground are urging fuel deliveries to be allowed in through the Rafah border crossing, in order to continue running generators for humanitarian work. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has stated that the attacks by Hamas did not “occur in a vacuum”, implying the well-documented history of the conflict in the region. This has prompted Israel to call for his dismissal.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst: S2A
END REPORT
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RR The Wire 2330Z October 23, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 233023Z OCT 23

ICOD: 230023Z OCT 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: ALASKA AIRLINES EXPERIENCES ATTEMPTED HIJACKING. CONFLICT CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: Rocket and Drone attacks on US military bases in the Middle East increase in frequency following increased tensions in the region. In Israel, the main offensive thrust into Gaza has not yet begun. Sporadic rocket attacks continue from Gaza as Israeli forces conduct limited clearance operations in some districts on the Gaza border.

Substantial advertising campaigns are observed to be spreading regarding Western support for Israel. Children’s content on various media platforms has been specifically targeted by ads encouraging support for Israel.

South Africa: Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) leader Julius Malema increases hostile rhetoric, declaring EFF support to Palestine. AC: The situation in South Africa has been tense for many months following Malema’s calls for the murder of white farmers, but rhetoric has increased in severity following the conflict in the Middle East. EFF rallies in support of Palestine continue to be held in Pretoria.

-HomeFront-

USA: Tyson Foods announces major investment in Protix, a company dedicated to insect production. Reports indicate Protix intends to build an insect processing facility in the US with the goal of providing insect-based materials intended for human consumption. It is not clear as to how much Tyson has invested in this company.

Terrorism Update: Horizon Flight 2059 (flying for Alaska Airlines) experiences attempted hijacking after an authorized jumpseat passenger attempts to shut down the engines mid-flight. The assailant also deployed engine fire suppression systems in an apparent attempt to bring the aircraft down. The two pilots flying the aircraft subdued the hijacker and landed safely. Details are vague at best, but officials state that the hijacker was an off-duty pilot who was properly authorized to fly in the jumpseat, as is standard practice on most airlines.

-Analyst Comments-

The attempted hijacking of AS2059 is significant as the attack was undertaken by an approved person. Based on the publicly available details following the incident, this was likely a very deliberate hijacking attempt. As the attacker likely could not reach the yoke, the attacker knew that the highest chance for success lay with shutting down the engines, and pulling the fire suppression T-handles. Both of which are reachable by someone standing behind the pilots on the Embraer E-175. This action would have resulted in shutting off hydraulics, fuel flow, and a number of other systems essential for flight. The chance that this was accidental is near zero; both moving the throttle and activating fire suppression systems are impossible to do without considerable, deliberate effort. Had the on-duty crew not rapidly physically engaged the hijacker in a vigorous manner, this incident could have had a different outcome. Fortunately, both pilots were able to regain control of the aircraft, and safely divert to PDX.

Very few details (such as the motive for the attack) are likely to emerge following this incident, due to national security concerns. As the attacker was an approved person who was properly vetted and authorized, there is likely very little that can be done to prevent this from happening again. Though due to the unique nature of the attack, this is likely an isolated incident.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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RR The Wire 2330Z October 21, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 233021Z OCT 23

ICOD: 230021Z OCT 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES TO MANDATE EVAC OF NORTHERN GAZA.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: Israeli forces continue to drop leaflets urging a total evacuation of northern Gaza. Leaflets indicate that Israel will likely consider any person north of Wadi Gaza to be a threat. Israeli officials express concern with what is likely to become the Northern Front upon the invasion of Gaza. Local reports indicate small convoys carrying humanitarian aid have crossed the Rafah border crossing, with the Red Crescent taking the lead in distribution of aid resources. How much aid has been distributed is not currently known.

Saudi/Iranian relations deepen following talks to impose sanctions on Israel. Sporadic drone attacks continue to target US military bases throughout the Middle East.

Europe: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue to grow in size and severity. In London today, over 100,000 protestors rallied to show support for Palestine.

-HomeFront-

USA: POL markets tighten as uncertainty in the Middle East impacts crude prices. Perhaps more significantly, OPEC members continue to cut production by 1.3 million BPD. Border Crisis: The US reports a total of 2.47 million encounters for FY 2023, which is the highest number of illegals encountered since records began.

-Analyst Comments-

While the world awaits Israel’s next move, the Arab world is making moves of their own. Saudi Arabia and Iran, two nations which have historically had an icy relationship have experienced a thawing of tensions. Though no confirmation can be obtained, reportedly the IRGC Quds Force commander, BG Ismail Qa'ani has arrived in western Syria to coordinate the various pro-Iranian militant groups staged on the Israeli border. Though the veracity of this reporting cannot be judged, this would be another sign of preparations being made with the expectation of this conflict rapidly expanding. 

From the nation-state level, down to individual tribes, it is possible that many Islamic groups are putting aside their differences for the time being in order to focus on a common enemy: Israel and the nations that support her. These factors will play a role in everything from economics to general street violence as groups align with their historic allies, and even forge new temporary alliances as well.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

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