Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Sentiment Steady, Tariffs Not Winning Any Friends


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🇺🇸 US Farmer Sentiment
US farmer sentiment was mostly steady in September. Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index ticked up slightly to 126, just one point above August. About 71% of farmers believe the US is headed in the right direction.

Confidence in tariffs, however, has declined. Only 51% of respondents expect tariffs to benefit agriculture long-term, down from 63% in June and 70% earlier this year. Many farmers are counting on government support to help offset trade pressures, with 83% expecting a program similar to the 2019 MFP if the trade war continues. 🌽💵

📊 USDA Reports Delayed
The USDA won’t release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report due to the ongoing government shutdown. Reuters shared analysts’ expectations: US corn yield and production are expected to drop ~1%, while soybeans show little change. Corn carryout is projected to reach a seven-year high, supported by historically large September 1 stocks. Global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat are also expected to rise. 🌍🌾

🚢 Mississippi River Challenges
Low water levels on the Mississippi River are causing grain transport issues. Although recent stabilization has allowed barge traffic, levels may drop again as harvest picks up. Higher barge rates are driving up shipping costs, which ultimately affect farmers. Combined with weak commodity prices, this has created record storage deficits across the Corn Belt—the worst since 2016—in Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, and South Dakota. 🛶📈

🇦🇷 Argentina Oilseed Strike
Argentine oilseed workers began an indefinite strike over wage disputes, supported by multiple industry groups. The labor ministry has called a 15-day conciliation period, halting strike actions temporarily. This comes shortly after a brief pause on export taxes for many agricultural products. ⚖️✊

🏛️ US Government Shutdown
The US government shutdown entered its eighth day with no end in sight. President Trump warned that furloughed workers might not receive back pay, seen as pressure on lawmakers. The Senate will vote on competing funding bills after both failed to reach 60 votes on Monday. The administration also cautioned that prolonged shutdowns could lead to permanent layoffs rather than temporary furloughs. ⏳📉

📈 Stay Informed

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Grain Markets and Other StuffBy Joe Vaclavik

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