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0:00 How Much Does This Suck?
1:20 Fertilizer Prices and Tariffs
6:23 US/China Meeting
10:04 Export Sales
12:18 Declining River Levels
15:09 Drought and Yield Potential

💸 Fertilizer Costs & Tariffs
Tight supplies and tariffs have pushed fertilizer prices to their highest level relative to grain and oilseed futures since 2016. While Canadian potash is tariff-free under USMCA, imports from countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia face added costs. Senator Chuck Grassley says cutting tariffs would bring quick relief, while the Trump administration is pushing to label potash a critical mineral to boost domestic production. 📈 

🌏 China Trade Talks
Chinese trade envoy Li Chenggang is in Washington for meetings with US trade and Treasury officials. While not part of formal negotiations, this visit follows his Canada trip and signals continued dialogue. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says "everything is on the table," but Beijing has yet to book new-crop US soybeans despite Trump’s push earlier this month. 🇨🇳🇺🇸

📊 Export Sales Update
• Corn: 2.1mmt (82m bu), down from last week but still strong. Mexico the top buyer.
• Soybeans: 1.4mmt (50m bu), above expectations — "unknown" buyers lead the way.
• Wheat: 579,800mt (21m bu), steady with recent trends. Vietnam the biggest buyer.

🌊 Mississippi River Woes
River levels at Memphis are forecast to fall 3–4 feet below normal by mid-month, raising fears of another costly harvest shipping season. Limited rainfall in the Ohio River Valley is adding pressure. 🚢 

🌦 Drought Monitor
USDA reports drought expansion across Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Some relief in the High Plains, while Michigan saw improvements.
Corn 🌽: 5% in drought
Soybeans 🌱: 11%
Winter Wheat 🌾: 31%
Spring Wheat 🌾: 13%
Cattle 🐄: 15%

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