Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Soybean Oil Drops 6%, Drags Soybeans Lower, Why??


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0:00 Soybean Rally
1:18 EPA and Bean Oil Selloff
3:36 Kansas Wheat Tour
6:28 Russia Wheat Update
8:14 Tyson CEO and Cattle
11:22 Ethanol Production

🌱 Soybeans Rally Again!
Soybean futures climbed for the fifth straight day on Wednesday! πŸ“ˆ The July25 contract edged up near $10.78/bu, fueled by:
πŸ”Ή A 90-day tariff truce between πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ and πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³
πŸ”Ή A House proposal to extend the 45Z tax credit
πŸ”Ή Hopes for renewed Phase One-style trade with China

But... 🌧️ storm clouds rolled in Thursday morning with lower prices amid EPA uncertainty and crashing crude. Full story below πŸ‘‡

βš™οΈ EPA & Renewable Fuel Standard
EPA Chief Lee Zeldin πŸ›οΈ says new RVOs are coming soon!
πŸ”Έ Final rule expected in months
πŸ”Έ Public comment period ahead
πŸ”Έ Push for higher volume levels already underway

Still, soybean oil futures are diving this morning πŸ’₯, possibly due to RVO delays and weak crude oil prices.

🌾 Wheat Tour Surprises
Kansas wheat tour is off to a strong start! 🌾
πŸ“ Northern KS: 50.5 bpa (above 5-yr avg)
πŸ“ SW Kansas: 53.3 bpa 😲
USDA now rates 48% of Kansas wheat as good to excellent vs. 31% on average. But issues like drought and wheat streak mosaic still linger.

❄️ Russian Crop Weather Update
Minimal damage from May frosts ❄️
πŸ“‰ Only 247K acres affected (10% of last year’s loss)
But dry soils now pose the biggest risk. 🌡

πŸ₯© Cattle Market Tension
Tyson says herd rebuilding has started. πŸ„
…but challenges remain:
⚠️ Drought
⚠️ High prices
⚠️ Limited capital
Tyson reported a $149M beef loss last week. Live Cattle futures just posted a downside key reversal πŸ“‰

🚜 Ethanol Production Slips
πŸ”» Weekly output: 1 million bpd (down 2.6% WoW)
πŸ“ˆ Stocks: 25.45 million barrels (still high historically)
Margins are improving in the eastern Corn Belt πŸ’΅ β€” see full ethanol charts below!

πŸ“Š Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay ahead of the grain game! πŸŒ½πŸ“ˆ

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Grain Markets and Other StuffBy Joe Vaclavik

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