The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Stagflation Rears Its Ugly Head – Ep.145


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It looks like Jamie Dimon's bottom turned out to be the trap door I thought it was, with the Dow Jones today down almost 190 points
The market was let lower by the financials, JP Morgan itself down better than 4%
Remember it was Jami Dimon having the confidence to put a year's salary into company stock that sparked this rally, but it seems to be losing steam and rolling over
Because we're not going to get a lasting bottom until the Fed makes that bottom
 It's not going to be a Jamie Dimon bottom, it has to be a Janet Yellen bottom; and as much as I have no interest in seeing Janet Yellen's bottom, that's exactly what we're going to have to do to get a real low in this market
Every single decline that the market has experienced since 2009, the bottom has been set by the Fed
It's been the Fed forming that bottom by coming to the rescue with rate cuts, QE programs, Operation Twist, hinting about more QE, and so far, the Fed has done none of that
The Fed is still sticking to its narrative that rate hikes are coming
Yes, nobody believes they're coming anytime soon, but that is still the official forecast
Meanwhile, the markets can't even deal with rates as is
The gold market will be the mirror image of the stock market; gold was up about $16 today
It reversed a near $20 decline yesterday, but it consolidating its huge move above $1200
So we are not getting the pullback that Dennis Gartman and Jim Cramer are hoping for to get on board
I think if people want to get on board this train, this is the stop.
If you like gold, just buy it and be happy that you're getting it for $1225 - yes, you could have bought it below $1100 in December, but $1225 is still cheap
The most interesting about yesterday's drop in gold - the gold stocks didn't really decline
Most of the gold stocks finished positive on the day
Gold stocks added to their gains today, and many are sitting on their highest close of the year, and several are at 52-week highs
Other than the gold stocks, the 52-week high list is pretty short
The 52-week low list looks like a rap sheet
Something happened on Friday that made some people believe that help from the Fed is not forthcoming
Which may be part of the reason why the markets are declining
The release of the CPI number caught a lot of people by surprise: January consumer prices, forecast to drop by .1%
The real number was the core rate, which excludes food and energy was up .3, month over month - the biggest jump since August 2011
The increase in the core price year-over-year was 2.2%, the biggest increase since June of 2012
Remember, the Fed says our target is 2%, well, we got 2.2!
We're there! We can raise rates! That's what's so scary
I wrote a commentary that is posted on this website, "The Fed’s Nightmare Scenario", and I got that title after reading an article in which an economist who, observing that the CPI was 2.2% announced that this is a"dream come true" for the Fed
He cited inflation as the primary barrier to the Fed's rate increase goals
The Fed's "mandate" of 2% inflation is finally met
First, the Fed doesn't have a mandate of 2% inflation. They made that up.
The Fed's real mandate is price stability, which doesn't require a definition, because everybody knows what the word "stable" means
The Federal Reserve decided to interpret that mandate to mean an increase of 2%
The late U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was one of the few justices who believed in the "bizarre concept" of original intent
He believed that the Constitution actually meant what the founding fathers intended it to mean, that the words actually mean what they say
My father always said, "If you want to know what the Constitution says, read it.  It's not written in Chinese."
If you're really not sure, go back and read the Federalist Papers, where the framers of the Constitution discussed the intent of the document
Today,
...more
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