Covid-19, the Ukraine War and extreme weather events have created ongoing disruption globally and locally, with knock-on effects for New Zealand’s dairy sector. So, what can we expect in the coming seasons with farm costs, interest rates, labour supply and demand for dairy? What are the challenges and opportunities for farmers to be thinking about? And what are some emerging trends that could affect dairy farming? 

Our guests in this episode are DairyNZ head of economics Mark Storey and foresight practitioner Melissa Clark-Reynolds, who bring some great insights and food for thought. Melissa is one of the speakers at DairyNZ’s 2023 Farmers’ Forum events, which will have a strong focus on science and research. Visit Farmers’ Forum 2023 - DairyNZ for details.   

Notes

• Farmers’ Forum 2023 - DairyNZ
• Melissa Clark-Reynolds – Signals from the Future (BOMA webinar, 14.2.23) 
• Melissa Clark-Reynolds – learning from NZ Primary Sector Unicorns (BOMA conference, 2020) 
• Mark Storey – Managing cost pressures in an uncertain environment (Fieldays interview) 
• Managing a profit squeeze (Talking Dairy podcast Eps. 41 and 42) 
• DairyNZ cyclone response: advice, tools and resources 
• DairyNZ decision tree for flood-affected farms 

Chapters

01:40 – Melissa's role as a foresight practitioner and her skill in recognising patterns
04:00 – Spotting trends before they emerge
08:09 – ‘Pandemic century’, our post-Covid situation, Russo-Ukraine War’s impact, demand for protein
14:05 – How much dairy farmers should be thinking about these global changes, and what can they do on-farm
16:02 – Cost pressures, rising interest rates, forecast farm working expenses 
17:18 – Fertiliser prices being pushed up by Russo-Ukraine War
17:55 – A mixed picture: rising interest rates, but lower dairy debt levels
19:55 – Post-Covid-19 challenges, recovery and reasons for optimism
25:40 – A long way to go until we’re out of ‘Post-Covid recovery’ phase
28:20 – Cyclone Gabrielle’s impact on NZ’s total dairy production, infrastructure, wellbeing
29:54 – Building our resilience to extreme weather events
35:37 – Reasons for farmers to be excited; good news stories; challenges of other products; opportunities to improve total return to farm (not just milk)

Have feedback or ideas for future episodes? Email us at [email protected]

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