Donald Trump sold us a different kind of Pax Americana. The US-led global rules-based order was always about soft power backed by bulk military might. Trump's rules on Inauguration Day veered instead to the utilitarian: yes to the world’s top superpower staking imperial claims to parts of the planet deemed vital to national interests. Yes to coveting Greenland’s strategic minerals and Panama’s essential waterway. No to forever wars in places like Ukraine where the US pays while Europe reaps the benefits of curbing Vladimir Putin’s westward march.

So why now the sudden pull of the Middle East? The US president is weighing whether to go all-in with Israel’s pre-emptive war against Iran? One whose stated aims oscillate between nuclear deterrence and regime change. Why Iran and not Ukraine? And what conclusions can Europe draw from the evolution of warfare in 2025? Both Ukraine and Israel inflicting damage with spectacular operations that combine special ops in the field, drones and artificial intelligence. Sales reps are all smiles at the big Paris Air Show but how should cash-strapped states be buying for their militaries? Can an unmanned gizmo really inflict as much damage as a state-of-the-art fighter jet? If so, just how volatile a world we live in?

 

Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Elisa Amiri, Ilayda Habip.