The Bitcoin Layer

In this Global Macro Update, Nik highlights bitcoin’s breakout above a key descending trendline and a textbook bullish divergence on the RSI—two technical signals suggesting the recent downtrend may be losing steam. But the bigger story is gold, which is exploding higher in what looks like the early stages of a full-scale monetary reset. With the dollar breaking multi-year support and massive gold inflows hitting the U.S., Nik explores the possibility of a global repricing, driven by collapsing commercial shorts and currency pressure abroad. He connects the dots between price action, trade war policy, capital charge relief, and the escalating financial war reshaping global asset markets.

Link to Tom Luongo Caitlin Long episode: https://tomluongo.me/2025/04/19/podcast-episode-213-caitlin-long-and-the-financial-crisis-that-wasnt/

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📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt

Chapters:

00:00:00 Analyzing Bitcoin's Bullish Divergence

00:03:37 Bitcoin's Path to New Highs

00:07:09 Gold Market Analysis and Breakout Predictions

00:10:43 Gold Revaluation and the Global Monetary Reset

00:14:17 The Impact of a Weakening Dollar on Gold Prices

00:19:00 The Impact of Gold Delivery on Commercial Shorts

00:21:32 The Reality Behind a Strong Dollar Policy

00:24:46 Presidential Economic Mandate and Currency Manipulation  

00:28:08 Origins and Impact of the Euro Dollar System

00:31:39 Understanding the Concept of Time

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik Bhatia is joined by Demian Schatt to examine why the US Treasury market is fundamentally strengthening despite recent volatility. Nik explains key concepts including SLR reform, Treasury buybacks of off-the-run securities, and current repo market dynamics that are supporting market stability. The conversation also explores how deregulation and fiscal discipline will be crucial for long-term Treasury strength and economic growth.

Matt Pines Episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTotxDkCvyY

📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H

📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.

📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe

🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.

📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer

📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial

🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch

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⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected]

Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt

Chapters:

00:00:00 Market Insights with Nik Bhatia  

00:05:57 Current Issues in the Treasury Market  

00:11:34 Understanding the Role of Treasuries in Banking Liquidity

00:17:08 Understanding Treasury Securities: On-the-Run vs. Off-the-Run

00:23:13 Understanding Bond Liquidity in the Repo Market

00:28:30 Understanding Budget Neutrality and Debt Neutrality  

00:33:44 Understanding Repo Markets and Interest Rates  

00:38:58 Budget Deficit Reduction Goals

00:44:42 Impact of Oil Prices on the Economy

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik is joined by Matt Pines, executive director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to unpack what could be the biggest shift in U.S. geoeconomic strategy in decades. Together, they explore the vision behind a potential “Bretton Woods 2.0”—a new system emerging from reciprocal tariffs, capital wars, and a shrinking global dollar zone. They dive deep into how the U.S. is building a trade and monetary alliance to isolate China, restructure global capital flows, and re-anchor demand for U.S. Treasuries. With gold, stablecoins, and possibly bitcoin playing growing roles in global settlements, this conversation lays out what a new financial order might look like—and where U.S. policy could be heading next.

Links to articles:

- https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/

- https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/a-global-economic-reordering-us-china-competition-and-bitcoin-as-tool-of-us-statecraft

📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H

📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.

📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe

🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.

📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer

📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial

🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch

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⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected]

Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt

Chapters:

00:00:00 Understanding the Breton Woods Reimagined

00:06:20 Global Economic and Security Challenges  

00:12:21 Understanding the Dual Public Good: Defense and Reserve Currency  

00:19:19 Challenges in Global Defense Manufacturing

00:25:46 Transition from LIBOR to SOFR: Understanding the Global Benchmark  

00:31:02 Understanding Government Dollar Policies

00:37:03 International Negotiations: Gold, Bitcoin, and Stablecoins in Currency Talks

00:42:53 China's Strategic Devaluation of Yuan and Gold's Role

00:48:39 Strategies to Isolate China: Global Economic Alliances

00:54:40 Matt Pines and Bitcoin Policy Insights

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik Bhatia is joined by Demian Schatt to break down one of the most volatile 48-hour stretches in recent bond market history. As Treasury yields spiked 60 basis points and the MOVE Index surged, Nik unpacks the hidden mechanics behind the dislocation—explaining how a highly leveraged basis trade began to unwind, triggering forced selling and market-wide panic. He walks through the role of China’s currency devaluation, the impact of new 125% tariffs, and how synthetic credit in the swaps market amplified the chaos. With bond volatility ripping, Nik explores what it means for the Fed’s reaction function, financial stability, and bitcoin’s surprising strength. Holding steady at $80,000 through it all, bitcoin is beginning to look like the safe haven asset markets weren’t expecting.

📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H

📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.

📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe

🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.

📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer

📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial

🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch

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⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected]

Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik is joined by PhD economist Peter St. Onge for a masterclass on the strategic use of tariffs in Trump’s economic agenda. Peter explains how tariffs serve as strategic tools, not protectionist measures, to reshape global trade, revive U.S. manufacturing, and drive domestic deregulation. He breaks down America’s asymmetric trade relationships with Europe, China, and Mexico, and outlines why Trump’s approach is grounded in realpolitik. Peter also explores the Fed’s role in enabling crisis-driven spending and how Bitcoin offers a way out of fiat dysfunction. Closing with the global stakes of shifting trade policy, he reveals how tariffs fit into a broader strategy to restore U.S. economic power.

📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H

📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.

📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe

🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.

📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer

📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial

🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch

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⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected]

Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this Global Macro Update, Nik Bhatia breaks down one of the most chaotic weeks in markets this year, using price action to explain the forces driving volatility across treasuries, stocks, Bitcoin, and the dollar. He outlines how the recent collapse in 2-year yields to 3.5% confirms that the Fed's hiking cycle is over, with rate cuts still expected even amid a strong labor market. Nik zooms out on the steepening yield curve to show how forward inflation expectations are reentering the market, while bond volatility—measured by the MOVE index—spikes to levels that are now dragging down risk assets. He explains how reciprocal tariffs, a weaker dollar, and the administration's focus on restoring trade leverage all feed into tightening financial conditions. The episode wraps with a close look at key support levels across the S&P 500 and Bitcoin—and what their breakdown could mean for the Fed’s next move.

📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H

📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.

📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe

🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.

📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer

📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial

🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch

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⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected]

Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt

Chapters:

00:00:00 Introduction to Global Market Volatility  

00:05:32 Understanding the Fed's Policy Rate and Market Expectations  

00:11:20 Impact of Federal Reserve's Rate Changes on the Economy

00:17:06 Impact of Trump Victory on Inflation Expectations

00:22:41 Trump's Strategy for a Weaker Dollar

00:27:54 Impact of Tariffs on Currency Manipulation and Trade  

00:33:38 The Technology Cold War with China  

00:38:59 Stock Market Trends and Volatility  

00:44:35 Analyzing Bitcoin's Critical Green Trend Line

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Demian Schott welcomes Yaël Ossowski of the Consumer Choice Center and Bitcoin Policy Institute to break down major shifts in U.S. Bitcoin policy. Yaël explains how Congress’s repeal of the IRS’s DeFi broker rule is a win for privacy and innovation, and why a de minimis tax exemption is key to using Bitcoin as real money. He outlines budget-neutral strategies to grow the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and highlights the need for stablecoin legislation, money transmission reform, and the Keep Your Coins Act. With real momentum in Congress and agencies, Yaël shares why he’s optimistic that lasting reforms are finally underway to protect self-custody and unleash Bitcoin as a parallel monetary system.

📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H

📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.

📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe

🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.

📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer

📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial

🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch

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⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected]

Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt

Chapters:

00:00:00 Understanding the IRS DeFi Broker Rule and Its Repeal

00:04:20 The Importance of Seed Phrase Security  

00:08:35 Tax Policy and Bitcoin Adoption

00:12:39 Cryptocurrency Lobbying in DC  

00:16:50 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Policy Focus

00:21:00 Bitcoin Adoption by Major Companies  

00:25:11 Precautionary Principle in Innovation

00:29:27 Understanding Bitcoin's Decentralized Network  

00:33:44 Navigating Bitcoin's Legal Challenges

00:37:51 Farewell and Future Bitcoin Insights

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik explains how the Federal Reserve’s slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT) is impacting Bitcoin and risk markets. He breaks down the balance sheet mechanics behind QT, showing how fewer Treasury runoffs reduce the burden on private investors, leaving more liquidity in the system. With fewer deposits redirected to government debt, more capital remains available for assets like Bitcoin and equities. Citing insights from former Fed trader Joseph Wang, Nik illustrates how even a modest shift in QT can influence market sentiment and asset prices—without any new money printing.

Link to article: https://fedguy.com/quantitative-tightening-step-by-step/

📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H

📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.

📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe

🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.

📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer

📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial

🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch

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⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected]

Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Chapters:

00:00:00 Why Bitcoin is Pumping After Fed's QT Slowdown

00:01:46 Integrating Self-Custody in Retirement Planning

00:03:26 Understanding Quantitative Easing vs. Quantitative Tightening

00:05:26 Understanding the US Government Deficit and Debt Dynamics

00:07:21 Understanding the Treasury Debt Rollovers and Their Impact on the Fed

00:09:06 Understanding the Role of Investors in Treasury Securities

00:10:50 Understanding Corporate Bonds and Deposits in the Economy

00:12:47 Understanding Treasury and Fed Balance Sheets  

00:14:41 Impact of QT Announcement on Bitcoin and Markets

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik decodes the Fed’s strategy as Bitcoin surges on the central bank’s decision to slow QT while maintaining its commitment to rate cuts. He breaks down what the Fed’s decision means for liquidity, why banks are holding onto reserves, and how this shift impacts risk assets. Nik also unpacks the latest moves in global bond markets, with Japanese and German yields spiking while U.S. Treasuries remain supported. With TBL’s proprietary liquidity metrics providing key insights, he connects the dots across Bitcoin, stocks, bonds, and global flow to assess what’s next for markets.

📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://a.co/d/5gau08H

📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.

📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe

🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.

📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer

📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial

🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch

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⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected]

Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Chapters:

00:00:00 Bitcoin Surges as Fed Adjusts Economic Policy

00:03:25 Enhancing Bitcoin Security: The Importance of Seed Phrase Protection

00:07:36 Understanding the September 2019 Repo Crisis

00:10:44 Jerome Powell's Comments on Money Market and QT

00:14:11 Understanding Bank Capitalization and Reserves

00:17:46 Bitcoin's Price Surge and Fed's Impact

00:21:22 Impact of Mortgage Basis on US Economy  

00:25:12 Impact of Tariffs on Inflation

00:29:00 Japan's Bond Market Crisis

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this global macro update, Nik  analyzes the latest economic data and market moves, from recession fears and falling stock prices to Bitcoin’s rebound. He breaks down the drop in consumer sentiment, the wealth effect’s impact on spending, and the yield curve’s steepening as markets price in rate cuts. With Treasury yields falling and gold hitting $3,000, he examines liquidity conditions and shifting inflation expectations. Nik wraps up with Bitcoin’s technical and on-chain indicators, assessing what the latest price action signals for the market ahead.

📚 Bitcoin Age is here, order yours today: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/bitcoinage

📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm.

▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.

📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe

🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.

📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer

📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial

🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch

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⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected]

Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc

Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball

Chapters:

00:00:00 Understanding Market Volatility and Recession Fears  

00:03:52 Current State of the US Economy and Consumer Sentiment

00:07:36 FED Rate Cuts Expected in 2025  

00:11:26 Global Monetary Shifts and China's Gold Strategy

00:14:58 Understanding US Treasury Yields and Market Expectations

00:18:34 Understanding the US Treasury Deficit and Market Impact

00:22:15 Understanding the MOVE Index and Its Impact on Risk Assets  

00:26:07 The Impact of Bond Volatility on Market Dynamics

00:29:44 Economic Slowdown and Its Impact on Inflation

The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.