The Climate Briefing

In November, global climate negotiators will gather in Antalya, Türkiye, for the latest round of the UN climate talks at the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31). This episode explores how, amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, global conflicts or emerging El Niño conditions, the negotiations may shape progress on implementation. We unpack the key issues to look out for at this conference: the role of Türkiye and Australia's shared leadership, growing adaptation and finance needs, and the leadership vacuum in climate diplomacy.

To discuss this, Bhargabi is joined by Pelin Zorlu, Senior Research Fellow and Lead on Climate and Energy at Chatham House, to speak with Jennifer L. Morgan, Former State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action at the German Federal Foreign Office, and Ümit Şahin, Head of the Climate Change Program at the Istanbul Policy Centre.

For more on these issues, watch the recording of Making the Case for COP in a Fractured Geopolitical Environment, with the COP30 and COP31 Presidents, alongside the COP32 President-Designate. The discussion explored the continuing value of multilateral climate diplomacy amid geopolitical tensions.

This season of droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires has shone a light on a growing vulnerability: the security of our water resources. Following the Stockholm World Water Week that took place last month and an upcoming UN Water Conference in Abu Dhabi later this year, this episode explores questions around how climate change and growing demand are reshaping global water security. It considers: Where is water becoming a source or a tool of geopolitical tension? Is the international system equipped to manage these pressures? What can be done about it?

To find out, Bhargabi and Beatrice Mosello speak to Susanne Schmeier, Professor of Water Cooperation, Law and Diplomacy at IHE Delft and Utrecht University, and David Michel, Senior Associate (non-resident) at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Read more expert commentary around this topic here: The world is far off meeting its growing water needs. Can the UN still lead the response? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank, India and Pakistan still cannot agree to restore the Indus Waters Treaty – but re-engagement could help bring lasting peace | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank and Europe's summer of fires: Burnham must centre climate adaptation in policies | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank.

The World Bank Group (WBG), along with the other multilateral development banks (MDBs), plays a critical role in helping its client countries transition to low-carbon economies and strengthen their resilience to the impacts of climate change. In late June, however, following pressure primarily from the United States, the WBG abandoned its target of allocating 45 per cent of its financing to climate-related activities. The Bank's broader Climate Change Action Plan, which was due to expire on 30 June 2026, was nevertheless extended.

What are the implications for the WBG's work on climate change? How can 'climate-progressive' MDB shareholders navigate these challenging dynamics? And what might the US administration do next?

To find out, Anna and Bhargabi speak with Melanie Robinson (Global Climate, Economics and Finance Program Director at the World Resources Institute) and Dr Nancy Lee (Senior Fellow and Director for Sustainable Development Finance at the Center for Global Development).

At COP30, Parties agreed to develop a 'Just Transition Mechanism', which many hailed as one of the real bright spots of the conference. Climate Action Network International, for example, called the decision 'one of the strongest rights-based outcomes in the history of the UN climate negotiations'.

What is the Just Transition Mechanism? What impact could it have? And what are the next steps in operationalizing it?

To find out, Anna and Bhargabi speak to Anabella Rosemberg, Senior Advisor on Just Transition at Climate Action Network International (CAN) and Beatriz Mattos, Projects and Research Coordinator at Plataforma CIPÓ.

Attention is increasingly turning to artificial intelligence as its capabilities and influence permeate nearly every sector. AI's growth raises important questions about its environmental footprint; risks associated with future scale, and how such a globalised industry can be effectively governed.

This episode of the Climate Briefing explores:

• Where are we today in terms of AI capability and use?
• Is AI's environmental footprint being addressed in product design and the industry more widely?
• Looking ahead, across national and international levels, what could effective governance look like?

To discuss this, co-hosts Anna and Bhargabi are joined by Boris Gamazaychikov (CEO and Co-Founder of the Sustainable AI Group) and Rowan Wilkinson (Research Associate, Digital Society Programme at Chatham House).

All eyes are currently on the Gulf due to the US–Israel conflict with Iran and the disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. In this two-part series, the Climate Briefing co-hosts and their guests take a deep dive into the region, which plays a crucial role in the global supply of oil and gas.

The first part of the series (released on 21 April) delved into the history of the region, addressing questions such as: How did the Gulf countries become such dominant fossil fuel exporters? What has this dominance meant for their geopolitical influence? And what role have oil and gas played in conflicts and coups in the region?

Part 2 focuses on how the countries around the Gulf are approaching — and may be impacted by — the energy transition. It also explores the implications that the US–Israel–Iran conflict could have for the region in the medium to long term.

To discuss these issues, Anna and Bhargabi are joined by Robin Mills (CEO of Qamar Energy and Non-Resident Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University), Dr Neil Quilliam (Associate Fellow with Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme and Partner at Azure Strategy), and Jessica Obeid (Founding Partner at New Energy Consult and Board Advisor to various energy and policy institutions).

Today's 'take–make–dispose' economy operates in a linear way: resources are extracted, turned into products, used, and then discarded — with severe consequences for the climate and environment. Transitioning to a circular economy means replacing this system with one that keeps materials in circulation through reuse, repair, remanufacturing, and recycling.

But what needs to happen — both internationally and within countries — to enable a transition to a circular economy at the global level? To find out, Anna Åberg and guest co-host Elizabeth Adetoye speak with Jocelyn Blériot (Executive Lead for Policy and Institutions at the Ellen MacArthur Foundation) and Dr Patrick Schröder (Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House).

All eyes are currently on the Gulf due to the US-Israel war with Iran and the disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. In this two-part series, the Climate Briefing co-hosts and their guests take a deep dive into the region, which plays a crucial role in the global supply of oil and gas.

How did the Gulf countries become such dominant fossil fuel exporters? What has this dominance meant for their geopolitical influence? What role have oil and gas played in conflicts and coups in the region? And what might the future hold for the Gulf producers?

In the first part of the series, Anna and Bhargabi delve into the history of the region together with Professor Paul Stevens (Associate Fellow at Chatham House; Emeritus Professor at the University of Dundee; Distinguished Fellow at the Al-Attiyah Foundation; and Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Energy Economics), who has published extensively on energy economics, the international petroleum industry, economic development issues, and the political economy of the Gulf.

The second part of the series will focus on how the Gulf producers are approaching — and may be affected by — the energy transition, as well as what the long-term implications of the Iran war might be for the region.

As the conflict in the Middle East rattles energy markets, this episode explores the connections between climate change, energy, and geopolitics. It addresses questions such as:

• What does the war in Iran reveal about the links between fossil fuels, vulnerability, and power? What lessons can be drawn?
• What does the energy transition mean for global geopolitics, and how should governments manage the 'messiness' of the process?
• How are the impacts of climate change reshaping our world, and what can be done to navigate the challenges that arise?

To unpack these dynamics, Anna and Bhargabi are joined by Arthur Snell (a former diplomat and author of 'Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive It'), Michael Bradshaw (Professor of Global Energy at Warwick Business School, Associate Fellow at Chatham House, and author of 'The Geopolitics of Energy System Transformation: Managing the Messy Mix'), and Dr Beatrice Mosello (Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House).

China is the world's largest emitter and dominates global production of green technology. A few days ago, the National People's Congress approved the country's 15th Five-Year Plan, China's main economic and policy blueprint for the period 2026–2030. What does the new plan say about China's climate and clean tech ambitions? And what does it reveal about China's broader geopolitical and foreign policy goals?

To discuss this, Anna is joined by James Kynge (Senior Research Fellow for China in the World at Chatham House's Asia-Pacific Programme) and Lauri Myllyvirta (Lead Analyst at and Co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, CREA).

Want to learn more? Please see:

• The expert comment 'China's Five Year Plan commits to economic resilience – as the Iran war exposes the fragility of global supply', by Dr Yu Jie (Senior Research Fellow on China, Chatham House). Available here.
• The article 'China's 5-Year-Plan: Latest draft shows emission targets out, clean energy targets in', by Bernice Lee (Distinguished Fellow, Chatham House). Available here.
• The article 'Can the West recover from China's hi-tech knockout blow?', by James Kynge (Senior Research Fellow for China in the World, Chatham House). Available here.