The Contrarians with Adam and Adir

Adam and Adir unpack the fallout from Melbourne Marathon weekend, the surprising decline in alcohol consumption and the latest consequences of Australia’s surcharge changes, before John Stensholt joins the show to break down the spectacular collapse of Firmus’ planned ASX float.

They dig into what went wrong with the $44 billion IPO, what it means for Oliver Curtis and MAAS Group, and where the data-centre story goes from here, before turning to Katrina Leslie’s remarkable Swipejobs story and its potential multi-billion-dollar listing.

01:34 - Melbourne Marathon Chaos

12:48 - Retail, Furniture and Property

15:40 - Is Australia Giving Up Alcohol?

19:52 - The Surcharge Ban and The ATO Backflip

25:40 - Australia’s Public Sector Productivity Problem

34:03 - John Stensholt On The Firmus IPO Collapse

59:30 - MAAS Group’s Firmus Fallout

1:05:24 - Swipejobs’ $2bn IPO Story

Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir unpack the ugly founder and shareholder battle at Blackmagic Design, what it says about minority ownership and why a strong shareholders agreement matters.

They then revisit Cettire after Dean Mintz buys another $2.7 million of shares and debate whether taking the company private could make sense, before turning to Bending Spoons’ acquisition of Miro and whether its highly leveraged “cigar butt” strategy can really create lasting value.

Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

 Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: ⁠https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/⁠

Adam and Adir unpack the fallout from Australia’s credit-card surcharge changes, why retailers and consumers may both end up worse off, and whether the policy risks adding more inflationary pressure. Mike apologises for GTAVI misinformation, discussing Codan’s extraordinary growth and valuation, and dig into Joby Aviation, autonomous aircraft and the future of flying taxis.

00:00 - Queenstown, Tourism and GTA 6

20:45 - Credit Card Surcharges and Retail

54:02 - Iran, Energy and Geopolitics

1:04:21 - Australia’s Biggest Tech Businesses

1:09:35 - Codan’s Incredible Run

1:17:43 - Joby, Flying Taxis and The Future Of Flight

Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir unpack the brutal sell-off across Australian retail, where names like JB Hi-Fi, Nick Scali, Temple & Webster and Myer sit in the cycle, and whether the downturn is starting to create long-term bargains. They also dig into Mass Group’s surge, Firmus’ extraordinary valuation trajectory and the risks around the data-centre boom, before turning to private equity and why the industry is suddenly struggling to find exits.

Adam and Adir dig into whether businesses are actually generating enough economic value from AI to justify the enormous amount being spent on it, before unpacking a controversial Fair Work ruling involving an Uber driver. They also take a deep dive into The Lottery Corporation’s monopoly economics, digital migration and valuation, before turning to the increasingly public intrigue around AirTree, Eucalyptus and the AFR.

00:00 - Intro and The Grand Final Public Holiday

05:15 - Coles, Finish and Dishwasher Tablet Pricing

12:28 - The Cost Of Eating Around The World

20:10 - Is AI Actually Creating Economic Value?

41:33 - Uber and The Fair Work Commission

51:20 - The Lottery Corporation Deep Dive

1:20:39 - AirTree, Eucalyptus and The AFR

Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir dig into Meta’s latest AI push and the risks of handing autonomous agents access to your personal data, before turning to JB Hi-Fi’s battered share price and whether GTA 6 can really move the needle. They also unpack Hello World’s $135 million acquisition of Crown Currency Exchange, and why the size, structure and disclosure around the deal raises so many questions.

Thank you to Visa for sponsoring today's episode. Find out more about how to turn business spend into better benefits with Visa here.

00:00 - Meta and The AI Race

18:55 - JB Hi-Fi, GTA 6 and Consumer Spending

28:54 - Hello World’s $135m Crown Currency Acquisition

Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Tim Slattery joins Adam and Adir to unpack his journey from becoming an ASX CEO at around 30 to selling APN Property Group to Dexus for more than $300 million and starting again with ASA Real Estate Partners. They dig into commercial property cycles, industrial and office markets, why shopping centres survived the e-commerce threat, and the unloved sectors, including specialised care property, where Tim sees opportunity.

This episode was part of a paid partnership with ASA Real Estate Partners. We thank them for supporting the pod and keeping all of our content free.https://www.asarep.com/Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir unpack Anthropic’s unusual approach to profitability, the extraordinary valuation being floated for Firmus and what could eventually unwind the economics of the AI boom. They also dig into Australia’s founder tax changes, Breakthrough Victoria and the National Reconstruction Fund, before turning to Xero’s executive pay fight, US strategy and brutal share-price decline.

00:00 - Adir's Gaming Sesh

12:31 - The US Open and The Focus of Winners

16:09 - Victoria’s Pothole Crisis

22:46 - Anthropic’s Economics and The AI Bubble

38:03 - Firmus and The $50bn Valuation

44:36 - Australia’s Founder Tax Changes

1:02:29 - Breakthrough Victoria and The National Reconstruction Fund

1:14:11 - Xero’s Pay Revolt and Strategy Problem

Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Live from The Commons in Cremorne, Adam and Adir are joined by Chris Judd for a special Ask Us Anything episode.

This week:

• How do we attract more capable people into politics?
• What would actually improve productivity in Australia?
• When should founders, investors and operators pivot, hold course or walk away?

Got a question you want answered? Drop it in the comments!

Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/