The Contrarians with Adam and Adir

Canva has announced the biggest organisational shake-up in its history, with 1,271 people, or 22% of its global workforce, affected by redundancies, role changes and relocations.

It comes after a brutal year for Australia's biggest private technology company. Reported internal figures suggest Canva's annualised revenue has stalled around US$3.7 billion while monthly active users have fallen by 12 million year-on-year, as increasingly powerful AI tools challenge its core design business.

Adam and Adir jump on for an emergency episode to unpack what the restructure really means, why Adir thinks this could be a move for survival rather than simple cost-cutting, and how AI has changed the economics of Canva's famous freemium model.

They also discuss what a major Canva downturn could mean for Australia's technology ecosystem, the dilemma facing employees holding private Canva stock, whether the company missed its "golden window", and what Mel Perkins and Cliff Obrecht need to do next.

CHAPTERS

00:08 - Canva's 22% Workforce Overhaul
10:09 - Is Canva Fighting for Survival?
20:01 - Canva's Golden Window and What Comes Next

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Could Australian interest rates really hit 6%? Adam and Adir look at the renewed inflation problem, why retailers are feeling the squeeze and what the trouble at David Jones says about the Australian economy.

Then they pull apart the 2026 AFR Young Rich List, questioning the valuations behind some of Australia's biggest young fortunes, from Canva and Firmus to Immutable and Nscale.

Plus, OpenAI falls well short of its latest fundraising target, Anthropic's economics come under the microscope again, and Adam and Adir debate whether AI represents a genuine threat to Google's extraordinary search business.

CHAPTERS

01:26 - Victoria, the Election and Muslim Vote Matters
12:14 - Could Australian Interest Rates Hit 6%?
18:52 - Eden's View From the Real Economy
23:56 - Australia's Retail Slowdown
31:53 - David Jones on the Brink
39:26 - The 2026 Young Rich List
59:00 - OpenAI's $30bn Funding Problem
01:08:41 - The Anthropic Economics Question
01:17:51 - Google Search vs AI
01:38:37 - Reddit and the AI Traffic Problem

LINKS

Mastercard:
https://www.mastercard.com/smallbusinessau

Acquire Intelligence:
https://acquire.ai/contrarians

BlueRock:
https://www.bluerock.com.au/thecontrarians

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Myer is bringing its corporate staff back to the office five days a week, and Adam and Adir think it says something bigger about where the power now sits between employers and employees.

They also ask what Netflix actually is now that its explosive growth years appear to be slowing, whether its competitive advantage can survive YouTube and an increasingly crowded streaming market, and why the former FANG stock may ultimately become a very different kind of business.

Then billionaire matchmaker Lauren Hunter joins the pod to explain how she finds partners for celebrities, politicians and ultra-wealthy clients. She talks about clients with 150 non-negotiables, parents secretly hiring her for their children, screening out gold diggers, post-date feedback, $25,000 searches and the $350,000 package for billionaires.

CHAPTERS

02:21 - Myer Ends WFH and the Employer Power Shift
11:30 - Netflix's Growth Problem and the Streaming Wars
28:36 - Lauren Hunter: Billionaire Matchmaking

LINKS

Mastercard:
https://www.mastercard.com/smallbusinessau

Acquire Intelligence:
https://acquire.ai/contrarians

BlueRock:
https://www.bluerock.com.au/thecontrarians

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https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Adir sit down with Brett Craig from Aura Group to unpack what private credit actually is, why the industry exploded after the GFC and how non-bank lenders are filling a funding gap left by Australia’s major banks.

All information provided for use by Wholesale Clients and is for educational purposes only.  It does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual investor. 

Information is provided by Aura Capital Pty Ltd ABN 48 143 700 887 | AFS Licence 366230. Wholesale strategy performance since inception is 9.42% pa as at 30 September 2026 net of fees and expenses since inception date 1 August 2017.

Returns assume reinvestment of all distributions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and capital and income is not guaranteed.

Emergency pod!

Anthropic has finally opened its books, giving Adam and Adir their clearest look yet at the economics behind Claude and one of the fastest-growing businesses in history.

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Adam and Adir unpack the tax shock hitting Australian venture capital and private equity, including why carried interest has historically received favourable treatment and what the government's new capital gains rules could mean for fund managers.

They also look at France's extraordinary levels of government spending and the growing tension between generations over wealth, housing and welfare.

Then it's back to tech and business. Canva launches its own image generation model as it fights to stay relevant in the AI era, Airbnb finally cracks down on excessive checkout chores, NextDC loses more than 40% in a single day after delays to its Melbourne data centre, and Temple & Webster rallies after an update that leaves Adir even more convinced of his short thesis.

CHAPTERS
00:00 - Inside The Pod, Media and The Contrarians Live

23:33 - Myeloma Australia and Adam's Family Story

27:12 - The 47% Carried Interest Tax Shock

43:48 - France, Government Spending and Generational Wealth

01:00:12 - Canva Fights Back With AI

01:09:07 - Airbnb Ends Excessive Checkout Chores

01:17:09 - NextDC Crashes 42%

01:32:46 - Temple & Webster's 31% Rally

LINKS

Myeloma Australia: https://myeloma.org.au/

Join us on Substack for articles, news and more: https://www.thecontrarianspod.com/

Adam and Will go inside the way Luxury Escapes is actually run, from the decisions Adam still personally signs off on to the systems, people and mental models behind one of Australia's biggest travel businesses.

Adam explains why CEOs should never become blockers, why he dislikes traditional strategy days, how Luxury Escapes stays entrepreneurial with hundreds of employees, what makes a great salesperson, how he thinks about culture and when it's time to move someone on.

They also unpack Luxury Escapes' competitive advantages, its approach to brand and marketing, sustainable growth over inflated valuations, and why Adam treats mistakes very differently depending on whether someone was taking initiative or simply failed to act.

CHAPTERS

01:33 - The Schwab Method: How Adam Runs Luxury Escapes
08:32 - Why Adam Still Signs Off Every Deal
15:42 - Speed, Decisions and Never Being The Blocker
28:04 - Sales, Culture and Building High-Performance Teams
39:49 - Competitive Advantage, Growth and How Adam Thinks About Mistakes

LINKS

Adam recently joined Sarah Grynberg on A Life of Greatness to discuss building Luxury Escapes, taking risks and why success is about more than money:
Listen on Apple Podcasts

Listen on Spotify

Luxury Escapes:
https://luxuryescapes.com

BlueRock:
https://www.bluerock.com.au/thecontrarians

Acquire Intelligence:
https://acquire.ai/contrarians

Braze:
https://www.braze.com/

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Adam and Adir unpack the latest fallout from Australia’s surcharge ban, the rise of PayID and PayTo, Victoria’s new auction rules and a software developer recreating products like Photoshop with AI.

Then they turn to the growing cracks in the AI boom: the Firmus fallout spreading through CoreWeave and other data-centre names, MAAS Group’s brutal sell-off and aggressive buybacks, and Anthropic’s extraordinary growth, and whether a potential $2 trillion valuation can possibly be justified.

01:58 - Ticket Bots and Radiohead

07:15 - Springvale, Retail and PayID

14:12 - The Surcharge Ban

29:17 - Europe’s Biggest Companies Quiz

38:09 - AI Clones Software

44:31 - Property Density and Victoria’s New Auction Rules

53:25 - Firmus, MAAS, Anthropic and The AI Bubble

We're delighted to announce the next Contrarians Live, hosted at BlueRock!

Join us on the 8th December in Melbourne CBD for the best live pod recording in Australia. Special guests to be announced. Get your tickets now at the link below:

https://events.humanitix.com/the-contrarians-live-at-bluerock

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Adam, Adir and Scott Middleton from Terem Capital take a deep dive into Washington H. Soul Pattinson, the $18bn ASX giant hiding in plain sight.

They trace Soul Patts from its pharmacy roots through Brickworks, New Hope, NBN and TPG, unpack how permanent capital and patient dealmaking have compounded across generations, and examine the investment philosophy that has made the company one of Australia’s most enduring businesses.

Then they tackle the harder question: after more than a century of extraordinary results, is Soul Patts’ premium valuation still justified today?

00:08 - The Soul Patts Story

18:43 - How Soul Patts Compounds Wealth

30:10 - Is Soul Patts Too Expensive?

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Adam and Adir unpack the fallout from Melbourne Marathon weekend, the surprising decline in alcohol consumption and the latest consequences of Australia’s surcharge changes, before John Stensholt joins the show to break down the spectacular collapse of Firmus’ planned ASX float.

They dig into what went wrong with the $44 billion IPO, what it means for Oliver Curtis and MAAS Group, and where the data-centre story goes from here, before turning to Katrina Leslie’s remarkable Swipejobs story and its potential multi-billion-dollar listing.

01:34 - Melbourne Marathon Chaos

12:48 - Retail, Furniture and Property

15:40 - Is Australia Giving Up Alcohol?

19:52 - The Surcharge Ban and The ATO Backflip

25:40 - Australia’s Public Sector Productivity Problem

34:03 - John Stensholt On The Firmus IPO Collapse

59:30 - MAAS Group’s Firmus Fallout

1:05:24 - Swipejobs’ $2bn IPO Story

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