The Dismal Science

The market has the cash rate in Australia at 3.6% by year's end, up from the current 0.85%. This would be the sharpest tightening in three decades. RBA Governor Lowe thinks this is unlikely but concedes the market has had a better record than the bank at forecasting rates. So who is right? And can the economy handle it? Plus, iron ore plummets and NSW takes on stamp duty.

A bit going on. The Fed is tightening, markets are freaking, crypto is collpasing. Are we headed for a global recession? While at home, will the Fair Work Commission's decision to raise the minimum wage fuel inflation?

The world is facing a period of prolonged stagflation akin to the 70s, according to the World Bank. Are there any reasons for hope amid the ongoing global omnicrisis? And what lessons can we take from the 70s experience? Plus, the Reserve Bank's biggest rate hike in two decades and what to do about gas prices.

Amid calls for a wide-ranging review of the RBA, we look at what's at stake. Plus, house prices fall, a preview of next week's interest rate decision, Q1 GDP and trouble in the Eurozone.

Paul Keating said when the government changes, the country changes. But does the economy change? We ponder the economic implications of the election. Plus, people are moving jobs again, capex goes backwards and China's slowdown.

Unemployment is now lower than it's ever been but real wages continue to go backwards. What can we do about it? Plus, is it a good idea to let people draw on their super to buy a house?

The RBA has lifted the cash rate for the first time in more than a decade. How much more is there to go? And is there a risk of a hard landing if they go too quickly?

We run through the latest labour market data and ask whether it's ok for a Prime Ministerial candidate not to know the unemployment rate. Plus, business and consumer confidence, US inflation and how far might house prices fall?

The Reserve Bank is signalling it will raise rates imminently, while the Fed Reserve is about to embark on quantitative tightening. But how soon and how quickly can central banks normalise monetary policy without scaring the horses?

The budget position is better than expected and treasury forecasts are rosy for the Australian economy. Are they overly optimistic given the uncertainty in the world? Plus, retail sales rebound from omicron and the yield curve inverts again.