The Dismal Science

Happy New Year listeners! Big ep to get us rolling:

Consumer confidence sliding, signs of slackening in the jobs market and weaker inflation point to the RBA holding in February, Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez, more weak numbers from China, Mark's apocalyptic beach reading, and the housing market marches on.

It's another bumper quizmas episode. We score Mark on last year's forecasts and gaze into the crystal ball to see what's ahead in 2024.

Thank you to all of our listeners. Have a great break! We'll be back in January with more epsiodes.

The RBA will now speak with multiple voices with all board members expected to speak to the public. Will this lead to greater transparency or muddy the waters further? Plus, more bumper jobs growth, the MYEFO reveals another jump in tax receipts, Milei takes his razor to Argentine spending and another COP climate conference goes by.

"Australia's economy hit the wall in the September quarter," according to Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan. Disposable incomes have declined steeply and consumer spending is weak. Have the rate cuts done their job now? Could the next move be down rather than up? Plus, Venezualan revanchism and Guyana's oil and gas boom.

Self-described anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei has won the Argentine presidential election. Do desperate times call for desperate measures as Argentina looks to escape hyperinflation? Plus, the RBA board worries about its credibility and the OpenAI board worries about the future of humanity.

Ivan's had another audio fail this week. Apologies. We know you come for Mark anyway.

The third quarter saw wages rise at a record rate in Australia and despite a slight increase in headline unemployment, the labour market is still tight. What's a central bank to do? Plus, are we seeing a soft landing in the US? Apologies for the audio on this one, a few technical issues.

With another rate rise last week and no easing in sight, Australia seems to have joined the higher for longer world. Are 'higher for longer' interest rates actually a sign of optimism about future growth? Or has excessive government debt globally pushed up rates? Plus, director sentiment falls again and a China growth surprise.

The signs are pointing to another rate rise next week, the first on Michele Bullock's watch, as inflation proves more stubborn than expected. Plus, strong retail sales figures and the IMF says it's time for governments around the world to tighten their belts.

With wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the world has become a more dangerous place. How should boards be thinking through the fracturing global order and geopolitical risk? Plus, the RBA sounds a hawkish note and a mixed jobs report.

We look at the wide-ranging work of Caludia Goldin, this year's recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics specifically "for having advanced our understanding of women's labour market outcomes". Plus, we catch up on Michele Bullock's first meeting as RBA governor and what the waning of Pax Americana might mean for the global economy.