Giselle, Iulia, and Dalibor are joined by Dr. Adrian Papahagi, a professor at Babeș-Bolyai University, Cluj in Romania. Given the Orthodox faith's relevance in Eastern European culture, Dr. Papahagi joins the podcast to illuminate how regional Orthodox churches and clergy across Eastern Europe, especially in Romania, have been processing and reacting to Russia's war in Ukraine. He shares how the Romanian Orthodox Church has clearly, unanimously rebuked Russia's aggression in Ukraine, although some thinner strains of more "conservative" orthodox may embrace Vladimir Putin's self-declaration as a defender of Christianity and traditional values. However, he notes that the Russian Orthodox Church is not in communion with other orthodox churches and has lost all credibility given its political association with the Kremlin. All additionally discuss Romanian historical memory of Russia and Ukraine, if there is a chance for a populist rise in Romania, and the role of Western European countries in Eastern Europe.

In this episode, Giselle, Iulia, and Dalibor unpack recent, quickly-evolving developments in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. War continues to ravage eastern Ukraine, where the Russian military is using its playbook from Mariupol to level Ukrainian cities into surrender. Following a spurt of pessimism from Ukraine-watchers last week, they discuss the potential strengths of and weakest links in Ukrainian defense. Giselle explains how the Russian military is paying a very high price for a strategic location of questionable significance. The Russian military continues to face challenges of organization, execution, and resources while Ukrainian defenses maintain some relative advantages. Giselle, Iulia, and Dalibor observe that the Russian government is still pursuing victory and pressuring Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire, but there is some hope seen in the strength of ongoing Ukrainian defenses.

In this episode, Giselle, Iulia, and Dalibor debate controversial approaches to resolving Russia's war in Ukraine. They discuss countries' reservations towards supporting Ukraine more robustly, like American far-right legislators opposing commitment to long-term aid. Across the Atlantic, the hosts call out Western European countries like France and Germany which are not willing to bear the necessary costs of countering Russian aggression and are dragging their feet in a manner tantamount to Russian appeasement. Further controversy was stirred by Henry Kissinger's remarks at the 2022 Davos Forum that Ukraine should trade land for peace with Russia - a realpolitik "psychological barrier" suggesting that Russia is a global superpower - which Giselle and Iulia rebut. Giselle, Iulia, and Dalibor discuss why NATO, the European Union, and allies should overcome these constraining viewpoints for greater success in arenas like the Black Sea and beyond.

Why haven't we seen more cyber warfare in Ukraine? Did we overestimate the Russians? Should we expect Russian cyber aggression agains the West in the coming months? Jason Blessing, a Jeanne Kirkpatrick Visiting Fellow at AEI, joins Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia to help answer these questions.

Jason discusses both Russia's, the US', and NATO's cyber warfare capabilities. He also explains Ukraine's response to Russian cyber aggression in the past. With our hosts, Jason digs into Article 5 and how NATO and the US should respond to a large-scale Russian cyber attack.

References: "NATO 2030: Towards A New Strategic Concept and Beyond," The Russian cyber threat is here to stay and NATO needs to understand it by Jason Blessing

As the war in Ukraine comes to an inflection point, Fred Kagan, Director of AEI's Critical Threats Project and recurring guest, joins Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia for a military update.

Fred explains why the Russians are focusing their operations in Donetsk and what might come next in eastern Ukraine. He also unravels what is actually going on in Azovstal and Mariupol after reported Ukrainian military evacuations. In a wide ranging conversation, Fred and our hosts also discuss the US aid package, solutions to the food crisis, and reported deportations.

Iulia's dog also weighs in.

Find daily updates from the Critical Threats Project here.

The importance of security in the Black Sea has been highlighted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Dimitar Bechev, lecturer at Oxford University and Visiting Fellow at Carnegie Europe, joins Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia to speak specifically about Turkey and Bulgaria.

First, Dimitar explains Turkey's relationship with Russia, NATO, and the US in order to illustrate the many factors behind Erdogan's foreign policy. Last, Dimitar dives into Bulgarian foreign policy, which has traditionally been Russophilic and anti-risk, but has taken a greater stand against Russia.

References: Turkey Under Erdogan by Dimitar Bechev; Turkey, between a rock and a hard place on Russia by Dimitar Bechev

Paul Massaro, Senior Policy Advisor to the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (the Helsinki Commission), joins Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia to talk kleptocracy and why it is a transnational threat.

Paul argues that kleptocracy is the #1 threat the West faces, as it prevents democracies from developing. Conversely, it is also the reason that Russia's military is performing less effectively than was expected. Paul also explains what we are doing to fight Russian dirty money coming into the US and what more we can do to fight corruption in Ukraine to help it rebuild after the war.

Yesterday, Russia celebrated its 77th annual Victory Day military parade in the Red Square. Amongst the speculations about the content Putin's speech were the possibility of a formal declaration of war on Ukraine, reiterations of Russia's denazification rhetoric, and a declaration of victory in Eastern Ukraine, all of which were notably lacking. Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia get together today, on May 10, to discuss Putin's speech, the parade itself, and the Western response.

What would a war crimes trial of Russian officials look like in 2022? Linda Kinstler, contributing writer for The Economist’s 1843 Magazine, joins the podcast for a rich discussion.

Linda compares the many similarities and patterns between today's war crimes in Ukraine and the beginning steps of evidence collection with war crimes and war crimes trails following World War II and the Holocaust. She synthesizes the Russian experience of WWII with propaganda and its use of the word "Nazi" in justifying its invasion of Ukraine.

Linda also answers our hosts' questions how war crimes are tried, what would have to happen to hold a trial with meaningful results, and why holding a trial itself would be impactful.

References: Come to this Court and Cry, by Linda Kinstler; Soviet Judgement at Nuremberg, by Francine Hirsh

Last week, explosions were reported in Transnistria, raising concerns for Moldovan and Black Sea security.

Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia discuss Moldova and its geo-strategic role in Eastern Europe. Iulia gives a brief history of Moldova and its ties since the Soviet Union, in order to help us understand why Putin might want to invade. Our hosts dive into an assessment of what will happen if there is an invasion, if the US can and would help, and what it means that Moldova isn't a part of NATO.

References: Is Putin about to Invade Moldova? by Dalibor Rohac; Russia ‘is already paving the way for a takeover of Moldova’ by Larissa Brown; Vulnerable Moldova by Iulia Joja and Nicu Popescu