Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia welcome Fred Kagan, Director of AEI's Critical Threats Project back to the podcast for updates on the fighting in Ukraine.

Fred provides his analysis on Russia's struggling military and poor decision making. He and our hosts hone in specifically on the Black Sea land bridge where fighting continues and reports of guerrilla warfare are cropping up, and they assess the likelihood of an invasion of Moldova.

Fred also shares his suspicions of ethnic cleansing being carried out by the Russian military in Ukraine and how the US can stop these human atrocities.

CTP provides daily updates and maps of the Russia-Ukraine war. Find more here.

Yesterday, Russia announced that it will halt natural gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria, renewing questions of European decoupling from Russian gas.

Cristian Silviu Busoi, a Romanian member of the European Parliament and President of Industry for the Research and Energy Committee, joins Giselle and Dalibor to discuss Europe's dependence on Russian oil.

Cristian assesses the intersection of Europe's goal to reduce its total consumption of gas with the conflict in Ukraine, how the US can help Europe reduce Russian oil dependence, and Romania's role in NATO and as a leader in the Black Sea.

As the Finnish parliament currently considers if Finland will join NATO, Giselle, Iulia, and Dalibor are joined by Finnish security consultant, Antti Seppo, to discuss Finnish strategic culture and Finland's stated interest to become a NATO member state. Seppo explains that fear of Russia does not motivate Finland's interest in joining NATO; rather, Finland wants to "be on the right side of the Iron Curtain." Seppo explains that Finland, although militarily unaligned, is politically oriented towards the West, and touches on Sweden's interest in joining NATO, as well. Seppo discusses Finland's exceptional conventional military capabilities and unpacks the term "Finlandization" and the true meaning of Finnish "neutrality." Given its influence in Europe, the group also offers takes on Germany's role in the war in Ukraine and analyzes Germany's problematic relationship with Russia.

NATO prepares for its spring meetings, during which it will contemplate Finland and Sweden's possible accession, but most pressing, its response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Dominik Jankowski a member of Poland's permanent delegation to NATO, joins Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia to discuss what we can expect to see from these meetings. He addresses Giselle's question as to whether or not it is possible to get Ukraine NATO membership in a timely fashion, and he analyses the dynamics among member countries that hinder and forward that effort.

Giselle, Iulia, and Dalibor welcome Ivan Mikloš, former Finance Minister of Slovakia, to the podcast to answer the question: what happens to Ukraine after the war ends? Ivan Mikloš offers thoughts on Ukrainian post-war reconstruction based on his expertise serving in the Slovak government and advising the Ukrainian government. He traces Ukraine's reconstruction period after the 2014 Euromaidan - which broadly developed the Ukrainian economy and rooted out much corruption - through Volodymyr Zelenskyy's election. He joins the hosts in considering what the role of the West, international organizations like the European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and Russia could be in reconstructing Ukraine.

Mason Clark, Lead Russia Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, joins Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia again for a military update.

He assesses the sinking of the Russian flagship, Moskva. Mason explains its significance for naval warfare in the Black Sea and what it means for the Russia-Ukraine war as a whole. He also describes what's happening on the many fronts in Ukraine now that the Russian military has withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine.

Mason and our hosts also dig into the background of the "Butcher of Syria," General Dvornikov, whom Putin has appointed ground commander in Ukraine.

References: What's Wrong with the Russian Army? by Giselle Donnelly

You can find AEI's CTP and ISW's daily Ukraine updates here.

Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic was re-elected in last week's Serbian general election. Ivana Stradner, AEI Jeanne Kirkpatrick Visiting Research Fellow, joins Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia to discuss the results.

Ivana explains Vucic's politics, draws parallels between Hungary and Serbia, and details Chinese and Russian influence in Serbia. She and our hosts discuss why what happens of Serbia should be important to America, and how the war in Ukraine has affected the Balkans.

References: It’s also important to win the information war with Putin’s Russia by Ivana Stradner; The threat to the West is inside the House by Ivana Stradner and Dalibor Rohac; Putin’s winning streak in European politics by Ivana Stradner and Dalibor Rohac

Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia wrap up the week, analyzing the events and rhetoric of the past days. They discuss to what degree the atrocities in Bucha were ordered by the Russian military, and to what degree they reflect a poorly organized military withdrawal. Our hosts compare Russian brutality with other genocides and discuss Russian filtration and de-Nazification rhetoric.

Giselle gives an update on munitions in Ukraine and German hesitation to act in Europe. Iulia explains the role the Russian Orthodox Church is playing in the rebuilding of Russian imperialism. Lastly, Dalibor shares the news of Slovakian munitions assistance to Ukraine and the broader European response to Russian brutality in Bucha.

References: Russian Nuclear Orthodoxy by Dima Adamsky

Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia welcome Fred Kagan, Director of AEI's Critical Threats Project, back on the podcast for a military update as Russia withdraws from Northern Ukraine and news of atrocities grip the world.

Fred analyzes the military strategy of the Russian withdrawal and shows how it was done in very poor order. He also helps us understand what's happening in the east and the south of Ukraine, and in Moldova. Finally, Fred estimates how big of a threat Russia remains to Ukraine and Kyiv, and what Russia's next steps might be.

After a landslide victory on Sunday for Orbán's party, Fidesz, Professor and Eastern Europe scholar, Charles Gati, joins the podcast to discuss the election results in Hungary.

Despite Russian atrocities in Ukraine, Orbán's strategy of staying out of the war proved successful. Charles analyzes pro-Russianism in Hungary, enduring pain from losing territory after World War I, and if a Russian-Hungarian alliance is actually on the table.