The economic outlook for the UK is much bleaker than Rachel Reeves, or indeed the IMF, would have us believe. Despite the IMF projections of +1.1% positive growth this year, the reality is bleaker. Adjust for inflation at say 3%, and +1.1% becomes a terrible -1.9%. Adjust for increasing population at around a quarter of a million per year, and the real GDP per head is minus even more.
Government debt is reaching 100% GDP as public spending again overshoots, and that itself is an underestimate, massaged by excluding utility debt, PFI (Private Finance Initiative) and other schemes. Debt interest is now a big drag on the economy. Last autumn’s Budget damaged growth. Raising the cost of labour through National Insurance and now with the workers’ rights legislation, raising the cost of capital by increases in unfunded public spending on the NHS mirrored Liz Truss’s unfunded tax cuts, and increasing the taxes on savings increases reliance on foreign lenders. It's time to face up to this grim reality and make a much more coherent shift to balancing the books and a serious set of economic growth policies.